Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
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Drinkthekoolaid
TRex2
Dave58
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Hat Tip to FluTrackers:
Retracted paper - Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay
Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds
Authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away
The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger
Published: 10:44pm, 9 Mar, 2020
Note: The study at the centre of this article on the transmission of the coronavirus was retracted on Tuesday by the journal Practical Preventive Medicine without giving a reason. The South China Morning Post has reached out to the paper's authors and will update the article.
The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.
The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.
Retracted paper - Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay
Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds
Authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away
The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger
Published: 10:44pm, 9 Mar, 2020
Note: The study at the centre of this article on the transmission of the coronavirus was retracted on Tuesday by the journal Practical Preventive Medicine without giving a reason. The South China Morning Post has reached out to the paper's authors and will update the article.
The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.
The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.
ReadyMom- Admin
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Study highlights ease of spread of COVID-19 viruses
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses?fbclid=IwAR3C9Hc0fej-_H66OMq7saIPfjZm3PL6RENOwpgCSrs0O5L89RWEMn2seY4
COVID-19 can be spread before it causes symptoms, when it produces symptoms like those of the common cold, and as many as 12 days after recovery, according to a virologic analysis of nine infected patients published today on the preprint server medRxiv.
Also, in a study published in today's Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers at Johns Hopkins found a median incubation period for COVID-19 of 5.1 days—similar to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). ---CONTINUED---
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses?fbclid=IwAR3C9Hc0fej-_H66OMq7saIPfjZm3PL6RENOwpgCSrs0O5L89RWEMn2seY4
COVID-19 can be spread before it causes symptoms, when it produces symptoms like those of the common cold, and as many as 12 days after recovery, according to a virologic analysis of nine infected patients published today on the preprint server medRxiv.
Also, in a study published in today's Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers at Johns Hopkins found a median incubation period for COVID-19 of 5.1 days—similar to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Coronavirus Can Live in Patients for Five Weeks After Contagion
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-live-plastic-stainless-steel-for-up-to-3-days?fbclid=IwAR2JoTNtfpGqireonzLApwhdawXC5AyMM7DW4TDwapiIPHReiPbR2FMJDSM
A new study suggests that the novel coronavirus COVID-19 can remain in the air for up to three hours, and live on surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel for up to three days.
The research, published in the medRxiv depository, also notes that the virus can remain on copper surfaces for four hours and carboard for up to 24 hours. The research found it could stay on stainless steel and plastic for anywhere between two and three days.
"Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days," the researchers wrote in the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. ---CONTINUED---
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-live-plastic-stainless-steel-for-up-to-3-days?fbclid=IwAR2JoTNtfpGqireonzLApwhdawXC5AyMM7DW4TDwapiIPHReiPbR2FMJDSM
A new study suggests that the novel coronavirus COVID-19 can remain in the air for up to three hours, and live on surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel for up to three days.
The research, published in the medRxiv depository, also notes that the virus can remain on copper surfaces for four hours and carboard for up to 24 hours. The research found it could stay on stainless steel and plastic for anywhere between two and three days.
"Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days," the researchers wrote in the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Not sure if this is the right thread feel free to move
This is very sobering. Dont read it before bed. It's the latest Aesop fable
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/03/you-really-have-no-idea.html
It makes a lot of sense and his projections are ominous.
This is very sobering. Dont read it before bed. It's the latest Aesop fable
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/03/you-really-have-no-idea.html
It makes a lot of sense and his projections are ominous.
Drinkthekoolaid- Posts : 685
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
NOTE: DrinkTheKoolAid's link, above, isn't exactly G-Rated, and sounds like how an Army Sargent from my days in the service might talk (I think he was exactly that).
For a more G-Rated version that says most, but not all, of the same things, check this one out:
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/03/failures-of-imagination.html
DTKA's link shows pretty much the same projections I have, except I don't run it out as long as he does (I usually stop my projections at 1% of the population being infected, for reasons I will get to shortly). Social distancing will slow it down, and that works really well in rural areas, but not so well in urban environments.
Two items he missed. One good: as the number of infections reaches 1% of the population (a very rough estimate - if I were a real epidemiologist I could be a lot more accurate) the infection rate will slow, as it begins to run out of infectable hosts. The other thing he missed is bad. The medical staff will dwindle, as they join the ranks of the infected.
Any way you look at it, about the middle of May, things are going to be bad.
For a more G-Rated version that says most, but not all, of the same things, check this one out:
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/03/failures-of-imagination.html
DTKA's link shows pretty much the same projections I have, except I don't run it out as long as he does (I usually stop my projections at 1% of the population being infected, for reasons I will get to shortly). Social distancing will slow it down, and that works really well in rural areas, but not so well in urban environments.
Two items he missed. One good: as the number of infections reaches 1% of the population (a very rough estimate - if I were a real epidemiologist I could be a lot more accurate) the infection rate will slow, as it begins to run out of infectable hosts. The other thing he missed is bad. The medical staff will dwindle, as they join the ranks of the infected.
Any way you look at it, about the middle of May, things are going to be bad.
TRex2- Posts : 2340
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Coronavirus can remain in air for 3 hours, live on plastic for days, new study says
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-study-idUSKBN2143QP
A new study suggests that the novel coronavirus COVID-19 can remain in the air for up to three hours, and live on surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel for up to three days.
The research, published in the medRxiv depository, also notes that the virus can remain on copper surfaces for four hours and carboard for up to 24 hours. The research found it could stay on stainless steel and plastic for anywhere between two and three days. ---CONTINUED---
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-study-idUSKBN2143QP
A new study suggests that the novel coronavirus COVID-19 can remain in the air for up to three hours, and live on surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel for up to three days.
The research, published in the medRxiv depository, also notes that the virus can remain on copper surfaces for four hours and carboard for up to 24 hours. The research found it could stay on stainless steel and plastic for anywhere between two and three days. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
People with Type A blood are MORE likely to catch coronavirus than those with Type O, study claims
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8122493/People-Type-blood-likely-catch-coronavirus.html
People with Type A blood are significantly more likely to catch coronavirus than those with Type O, Chinese academics have found.
The study in Wuhan - the epicentre of the disease - also found those with Type A blood are more likely to die from COVID-19.
In the general population Type O blood (34%) is more common than A (32%). However, among COVID-19 patients, people with Type O accounted for just 25%, whereas Type A made up 41%. ---CONTINUED---
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8122493/People-Type-blood-likely-catch-coronavirus.html
People with Type A blood are significantly more likely to catch coronavirus than those with Type O, Chinese academics have found.
The study in Wuhan - the epicentre of the disease - also found those with Type A blood are more likely to die from COVID-19.
In the general population Type O blood (34%) is more common than A (32%). However, among COVID-19 patients, people with Type O accounted for just 25%, whereas Type A made up 41%. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
86% of people with coronavirus are walking around undetected, study says
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of-people-with-coronavirus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/
“Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says.
Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science. ---CONTINUED---
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of-people-with-coronavirus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/
“Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says.
Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
This goes along with my theory that some people are genetically less vulnerable to the virus. I haven't seen any studies, but empirical evidence shows that for any virus, even a brand new one, there is a percentage of the population that the virus simply can not infect.ReadyMom wrote:People with Type A blood are MORE likely to catch coronavirus than those with Type O, study claims...
I gave this study a once over, and it looks like the study was well done.ReadyMom wrote:86% of people with coronavirus are walking around undetected, study says
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of-people-with-coronavirus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/
“Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says.
Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science. ---CONTINUED---
Needs to be peer reviewed, to see if they missed anything, but by then, the point may be moot.
TRex2- Posts : 2340
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
There's a video in one of the threads, where (I think it was the British Dr.) it is explained about these two strains:
*Here's the link to the video if you missed it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYPZHA-UjUY&fbclid=IwAR3AGXa7cNizLScIjvyLenb8p3kTmuHkJUV6zQ-Kxa6r5qlWXL9GkETzfdM
Coronavirus: aggressive ‘L type’ strain affecting 70 per cent of cases
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-aggressive-l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/
Researchers say that the discovery of two SARS-CoV2 strains "strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies".
Scientists in China claim to have identified two main strains of the coronavirus that is circulating in humans, indicating that the virus is mutating.
Researchers at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institute Pasteur of Shanghai say the COVID-19 virus, which has since been renamed SARS-CoV2, has evolved into two major lineages, known as “L” and “S” types.
The newer and more aggressive L type strain accounted for about 70 per cent of the analysed cases, the researchers said, while the rest were linked to the older S type version. ---CONTINUED---
*Here's the link to the video if you missed it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYPZHA-UjUY&fbclid=IwAR3AGXa7cNizLScIjvyLenb8p3kTmuHkJUV6zQ-Kxa6r5qlWXL9GkETzfdM
Coronavirus: aggressive ‘L type’ strain affecting 70 per cent of cases
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-aggressive-l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/
Researchers say that the discovery of two SARS-CoV2 strains "strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies".
Scientists in China claim to have identified two main strains of the coronavirus that is circulating in humans, indicating that the virus is mutating.
Researchers at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institute Pasteur of Shanghai say the COVID-19 virus, which has since been renamed SARS-CoV2, has evolved into two major lineages, known as “L” and “S” types.
The newer and more aggressive L type strain accounted for about 70 per cent of the analysed cases, the researchers said, while the rest were linked to the older S type version. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Studies show warm weather can slow coronavirus, but won’t stop it
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/studies-show-warm-weather-can-slow-coronavirus-but-wont-stop-it/
Warm temperatures slow down the spread of the novel coronavirus — but don’t completely eradicate it, according to new studies.
Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 90 percent of COVID-19 transmissions that occurred until Sunday happened in regions with low temperatures — between 37.4 and 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit. ---CONTINUED---
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/studies-show-warm-weather-can-slow-coronavirus-but-wont-stop-it/
Warm temperatures slow down the spread of the novel coronavirus — but don’t completely eradicate it, according to new studies.
Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 90 percent of COVID-19 transmissions that occurred until Sunday happened in regions with low temperatures — between 37.4 and 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Frightening cellphone 'heat map' shows coronavirus' potential spread as spring break revelers went home
https://www.foxnews.com/tech/cellphone-heat-map-coronavirus-potential-spread-from-travel
Heat maps that show cellphone location data in the U.S. paint a disturbing picture of the potential spread of coronavirus as the country grapples with lockdown meaures and tries to stem the virus' tide.
Tectonix, geospatial data visualization platform, working in partnership with location company X-Mode Social, created an alarming map that shows the impact of ignoring social distancing restrictions. ---CONTINUED---
https://www.foxnews.com/tech/cellphone-heat-map-coronavirus-potential-spread-from-travel
Heat maps that show cellphone location data in the U.S. paint a disturbing picture of the potential spread of coronavirus as the country grapples with lockdown meaures and tries to stem the virus' tide.
Tectonix, geospatial data visualization platform, working in partnership with location company X-Mode Social, created an alarming map that shows the impact of ignoring social distancing restrictions. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Time spent in public spaces significantly raises risk of contracting respiratory illnesses
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-spent-spaces-significantly-respiratory-illnesses.html
Spending time in supermarkets, eating out, socialising and using public transport, as well as being in contact with someone who has a cold, significantly increases the risk of contracting a respiratory illness, according to new UCL research. ---CONTINUED---
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-spent-spaces-significantly-respiratory-illnesses.html
Spending time in supermarkets, eating out, socialising and using public transport, as well as being in contact with someone who has a cold, significantly increases the risk of contracting a respiratory illness, according to new UCL research. ---CONTINUED---
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Experts urge caution on possible 'flattening' of coronavirus cases
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/experts-urge-caution-on-possible-flattening-of-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB12jj9c?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
Epidemiologists urge Americans not to gain a false sense of confidence and continue to practice social distancing, even as the number of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus appears to be slowing in some states. ---CONTINUED---
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/experts-urge-caution-on-possible-flattening-of-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB12jj9c?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
Epidemiologists urge Americans not to gain a false sense of confidence and continue to practice social distancing, even as the number of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus appears to be slowing in some states. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Experts: COVID-19 pandemic unlikely to ebb as weather warms
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/experts-covid-19-pandemic-unlikely-ebb-weather-warms
Although some pundits have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will dissipate with coming warm temperatures and high humidity in the Northern Hemisphere, the virus is unlikely to be seasonal in nature, according to a paper published yesterday by the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. ---CONTINUED---
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/experts-covid-19-pandemic-unlikely-ebb-weather-warms
Although some pundits have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will dissipate with coming warm temperatures and high humidity in the Northern Hemisphere, the virus is unlikely to be seasonal in nature, according to a paper published yesterday by the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. ---CONTINUED---
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Higher levels of coronavirus 'entry point' enzyme in lungs of COPD patients and smokers
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-higher-coronavirus-entry-enzyme-lungs.html
People with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and people who currently smoke may have higher levels of a molecule, called angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE-2), in their lungs according to a study published in the European Respiratory Journal today.
Previous research shows that ACE-2, which sits on the surface of lung cells, is the 'entry point' that allows coronavirus to get into the cells of the lungs and cause an infection. ---CONTINUED---
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-higher-coronavirus-entry-enzyme-lungs.html
People with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and people who currently smoke may have higher levels of a molecule, called angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE-2), in their lungs according to a study published in the European Respiratory Journal today.
Previous research shows that ACE-2, which sits on the surface of lung cells, is the 'entry point' that allows coronavirus to get into the cells of the lungs and cause an infection. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
For survivors of severe COVID-19, beating the virus is just the beginning
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/survivors-severe-covid-19-beating-virus-just-beginning#
The next few months will be full of grim updates about the spread of the new coronavirus, but they will also be full of homecomings. Patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19, some having spent weeks breathing with the help of a mechanical ventilator, will set about resuming their lives. Many will likely deal with lingering effects of the virus—and of the emergency treatments that allowed them to survive it. ---CONTINUED---
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/survivors-severe-covid-19-beating-virus-just-beginning#
The next few months will be full of grim updates about the spread of the new coronavirus, but they will also be full of homecomings. Patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19, some having spent weeks breathing with the help of a mechanical ventilator, will set about resuming their lives. Many will likely deal with lingering effects of the virus—and of the emergency treatments that allowed them to survive it. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Great graphic to share with others:
Belgian-Dutch Study: Why in times of COVID-19 you can not walk/run/bike close to each other
https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08
What is a safe distance when running, biking and walking during COVID-19 times? It is further than the typical 1–2 meter as prescribed in different countries!
In a lot of countries walking, biking and jogging are welcome activities in these times of COVID-19. However, it is important to note that you need to avoid each other's slipstream when doing these activities. This comes out of the result of a study by the KU Leuven (Belgium) and TU Eindhoven (Netherlands). (1)(2)(3) ---CONTINUED---
Belgian-Dutch Study: Why in times of COVID-19 you can not walk/run/bike close to each other
https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08
What is a safe distance when running, biking and walking during COVID-19 times? It is further than the typical 1–2 meter as prescribed in different countries!
In a lot of countries walking, biking and jogging are welcome activities in these times of COVID-19. However, it is important to note that you need to avoid each other's slipstream when doing these activities. This comes out of the result of a study by the KU Leuven (Belgium) and TU Eindhoven (Netherlands). (1)(2)(3) ---CONTINUED---
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Did You Already Have Coronavirus Without Knowing It? Experts Explain Why That's Possible
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/did-you-already-have-coronavirus-without-knowing-it-experts-explain-why-thats-possible/ar-BB12hJCX?li=BBnba9O&ocid=iehp
Toward the end of February, I traveled to New York City for a work trip. On day four or five, I started to feel ill. I did not have a thermometer, and so I did not think to take my temperature. But I was extremely tired, had a mild sore throat, developed a dry cough, and had trouble walking around the city due to shortness of breath. ---CONTINUED---
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/did-you-already-have-coronavirus-without-knowing-it-experts-explain-why-thats-possible/ar-BB12hJCX?li=BBnba9O&ocid=iehp
Toward the end of February, I traveled to New York City for a work trip. On day four or five, I started to feel ill. I did not have a thermometer, and so I did not think to take my temperature. But I was extremely tired, had a mild sore throat, developed a dry cough, and had trouble walking around the city due to shortness of breath. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Does The Amount of Coronavirus You're Exposed to Determine How Sick You'll Get?
https://www.sciencealert.com/does-the-amount-of-covid-19-virus-you-are-exposed-to-determine-how-sick-you-ll-get
Healthcare workers are likely to be in contact with many COVID-19 patients every day. Being in contact with more people with the disease means that, in theory, they will be exposed to higher doses of the coronavirus over time.
Does that mean they are at greater risk of contracting the disease, as reports from some countries suggest? ---CONTINUED---
https://www.sciencealert.com/does-the-amount-of-covid-19-virus-you-are-exposed-to-determine-how-sick-you-ll-get
Healthcare workers are likely to be in contact with many COVID-19 patients every day. Being in contact with more people with the disease means that, in theory, they will be exposed to higher doses of the coronavirus over time.
Does that mean they are at greater risk of contracting the disease, as reports from some countries suggest? ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
The coronavirus spreads at least 13 feet, travels on shoes: CDC
https://nypost.com/2020/04/12/the-coronavirus-can-travel-at-least-13-feet-new-study-shows/
The coronavirus can travel through the air at least 13 feet — more than twice as far as social distancing guidelines, according to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Research published in the federal agency’s Emerging Infectious Diseases journal shows the contagion spreading much farther than previous official suggestions — and also getting spread on people’s shoes. ---CONTINUED---
https://nypost.com/2020/04/12/the-coronavirus-can-travel-at-least-13-feet-new-study-shows/
The coronavirus can travel through the air at least 13 feet — more than twice as far as social distancing guidelines, according to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Research published in the federal agency’s Emerging Infectious Diseases journal shows the contagion spreading much farther than previous official suggestions — and also getting spread on people’s shoes. ---CONTINUED---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Study: Dominant form of virus ‘10 times’ more infectious than original strain
https://www.timesofisrael.com/study-dominant-form-of-virus-10-times-more-infectious-than-original-strain/
A form of the novel coronavirus which has become the dominant type in much of the world may have done so thanks to a mutation that allows it to better latch onto human hosts’ cells, new research indicates.
(SNIP) ... “Over time, it has figured out how to hold on better and not fall apart until it needs to,” Farzan says. “The virus has, under selection pressure, made itself more stable.”
=======
From another source:
(Snip) ... a study has found.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/worlds-dominant-strain-of-coronavirus-is-10-times-more-infectious-than-the-one-that-jumped-to-humans-in-china-because-it-mutated-so-its-vital-spike-protein-doesnt-snap-as-often-in-the-body-scientists-say/ar-BB167e7l
Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute in Florida say the 'spike protein' that the virus uses to attach to cells in the airways has adapted since January.
It used to break off regularly while trying to bind to receptors in people's airways, which it would use to gain entry to the body, but is now more resilient, they say.
A genetic mutation which scientists around the world have been picking up on for months appears to have caused this spike to be less likely to snap, and also to force the coronaviruses to produce more of them to make itself more infectious. ---continued---
https://www.timesofisrael.com/study-dominant-form-of-virus-10-times-more-infectious-than-original-strain/
A form of the novel coronavirus which has become the dominant type in much of the world may have done so thanks to a mutation that allows it to better latch onto human hosts’ cells, new research indicates.
(SNIP) ... “Over time, it has figured out how to hold on better and not fall apart until it needs to,” Farzan says. “The virus has, under selection pressure, made itself more stable.”
=======
From another source:
(Snip) ... a study has found.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/worlds-dominant-strain-of-coronavirus-is-10-times-more-infectious-than-the-one-that-jumped-to-humans-in-china-because-it-mutated-so-its-vital-spike-protein-doesnt-snap-as-often-in-the-body-scientists-say/ar-BB167e7l
Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute in Florida say the 'spike protein' that the virus uses to attach to cells in the airways has adapted since January.
It used to break off regularly while trying to bind to receptors in people's airways, which it would use to gain entry to the body, but is now more resilient, they say.
A genetic mutation which scientists around the world have been picking up on for months appears to have caused this spike to be less likely to snap, and also to force the coronaviruses to produce more of them to make itself more infectious. ---continued---
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
WHO Chief On COVID-19 Pandemic: 'The Worst Is Yet To Come'
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/29/885049691/who-chief-on-covid-19-pandemic-the-worst-is-yet-to-come?fbclid=IwAR0xMQBcY_HkIadu-7VwXK6BIso5Juu_4yKSeM0nvXIWfAeX4GFvjMnRqxw
The head of the World Health Organization is warning that the COVID-19 pandemic is speeding up, and he criticized governments that have failed to establish reliable contact tracing to stop the spread of the coronavirus. ---continued---
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/29/885049691/who-chief-on-covid-19-pandemic-the-worst-is-yet-to-come?fbclid=IwAR0xMQBcY_HkIadu-7VwXK6BIso5Juu_4yKSeM0nvXIWfAeX4GFvjMnRqxw
The head of the World Health Organization is warning that the COVID-19 pandemic is speeding up, and he criticized governments that have failed to establish reliable contact tracing to stop the spread of the coronavirus. ---continued---
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The good news is that this mutation (which some of us have known about for a while) make the virus less of a killer, and more of a nuisance.ReadyMom wrote:Study: Dominant form of virus ‘10 times’ more infectious than original strain
https://www.timesofisrael.com/study-dominant-form-of-virus-10-times-more-infectious-than-original-strain/
A form of the novel coronavirus which has become the dominant type in much of the world may have done so thanks to a mutation that allows it to better latch onto human hosts’ cells, new research indicates.
(SNIP) ... “Over time, it has figured out how to hold on better and not fall apart until it needs to,” Farzan says. “The virus has, under selection pressure, made itself more stable.”
=======
From another source:
(Snip) ... a study has found.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/worlds-dominant-strain-of-coronavirus-is-10-times-more-infectious-than-the-one-that-jumped-to-humans-in-china-because-it-mutated-so-its-vital-spike-protein-doesnt-snap-as-often-in-the-body-scientists-say/ar-BB167e7l
Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute in Florida say the 'spike protein' that the virus uses to attach to cells in the airways has adapted since January.
It used to break off regularly while trying to bind to receptors in people's airways, which it would use to gain entry to the body, but is now more resilient, they say.
A genetic mutation which scientists around the world have been picking up on for months appears to have caused this spike to be less likely to snap, and also to force the coronaviruses to produce more of them to make itself more infectious. ---continued---
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I heard about this article tonight on the newsmax news. So here it is, the lockdown of the U.S. a few months ago is attributed to be 10 times more deadly than if the U.S. would have stayed opened.
I don't know if I'm a believer or not in this article, you make your own decision:
https://www.revolver.news/2020/08/study-covid-19-lockdowns-deadlier-than-pandemic-itself/
I don't know if I'm a believer or not in this article, you make your own decision:
https://www.revolver.news/2020/08/study-covid-19-lockdowns-deadlier-than-pandemic-itself/
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
5 genes linked to severe cases of covid-19:
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-genetics/five-severe-covid-risk-genes-found-suggesting-drug-targets-idUSKBN28L24X
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-genetics/five-severe-covid-risk-genes-found-suggesting-drug-targets-idUSKBN28L24X
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
New symptoms of covid-19, swollen tongue, swollen toes, maybe:
https://weather.com/en-IN/india/coronavirus/news/2021-02-02-covid-tongue-and-covid-toes-less-common-symptoms-of-the-lingering
https://weather.com/en-IN/india/coronavirus/news/2021-02-02-covid-tongue-and-covid-toes-less-common-symptoms-of-the-lingering
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My gosh ... is there ANY part of a human that this virus doesn't affect? It's a biblical plague from God.
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7 new variants of covid-19 now found in the U.S., very scary:
https://www.foxnews.com/health/seven-new-highly-contagious-covid-19-variants-found-across-us
https://www.foxnews.com/health/seven-new-highly-contagious-covid-19-variants-found-across-us
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Actually, the only variant of any real concern right now is the once commonly called B.1.1.7 and has the mutation known as E484. There are a couple more on the radar, one of them seems to go by the name P1, but it isn't prevalent enough to know if it is going to have an impact.
B.1.1.7, with the E484 mutation will have an impact.
And it might be a big impact.
We will know in a couple more weeks.
B.1.1.7, with the E484 mutation will have an impact.
And it might be a big impact.
We will know in a couple more weeks.
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
ReadyMom wrote:My gosh ... is there ANY part of a human that this virus doesn't affect? Â It's a biblical plague from God.
Many survivors of the covid-19 are physically struggling with the aftermath:
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2021-03-14/survivors-struggle-as-scientists-race-to-solve-covid-mystery
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Most of the ones struggling with the aftermath will be better as time goes on. There will be some who are never the same. It isn't well known, but quite a few plagues leave some people "never the same." As a society, we tend to gloss over that.rick1 wrote:Many survivors of the covid-19 are physically struggling with the aftermath:ReadyMom wrote:My gosh ... is there ANY part of a human that this virus doesn't affect? Â It's a biblical plague from God.
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2021-03-14/survivors-struggle-as-scientists-race-to-solve-covid-mystery
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Now they're saying students can social distance at 3 feet versus 6 feet. If that's true, why can't adults social distance at 3 feet?
The school districts in our area (7 of them) all of them have been in school, they all have been playing all their sports, football, volleyball, basketball, baseball, etc.. I know, I go to all of them to watch the grandkids. And you have schools in other states that the teachers refuse to go back to work.
P.S. There have been only 7 cases of covid in those 7 school districts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/03/15/kids-dont-need-keep-six-feet-apart-schools-three-feet-is-just-safe/
The school districts in our area (7 of them) all of them have been in school, they all have been playing all their sports, football, volleyball, basketball, baseball, etc.. I know, I go to all of them to watch the grandkids. And you have schools in other states that the teachers refuse to go back to work.
P.S. There have been only 7 cases of covid in those 7 school districts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/03/15/kids-dont-need-keep-six-feet-apart-schools-three-feet-is-just-safe/
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Nothing to do with science. This is all politics and propaganda.rick1 wrote:Now they're saying students can social distance at 3 feet versus 6 feet. If that's true, why can't adults social distance at 3 feet?
The school districts in our area (7 of them) all of them have been in school, they all have been playing all their sports, football, volleyball, basketball, baseball, etc.. I know, I go to all of them to watch the grandkids. And you have schools in other states that the teachers refuse to go back to work.
...
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The CDC director, just minutes ago, warned Americans of an impending doom:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/cdc-director-feeling-impending-doom-amid-spike-76750823
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/cdc-director-feeling-impending-doom-amid-spike-76750823
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I think the WHO is having a hard time giving up lying.
And I think the CDC (and a lot of other agencies) is having a hard time giving up power and the spotlight.
And I think the CDC (and a lot of other agencies) is having a hard time giving up power and the spotlight.
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Honestly, I just do not know if this is true or not. I don't know what is true anymore. Are we REALLY looking at increases? Are #'s right? Do we need to be doing all this still? I have NO idea. NONE. All this study, learning, pandemic awareness preparedness and I feel like I'm TOTALLY ignorant of what's REALLY going on.rick1 wrote:The CDC director, just minutes ago, warned Americans of an impending doom:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/cdc-director-feeling-impending-doom-amid-spike-76750823
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Well, the first rule is: don't believe anything the WHO or the New Administration tells you.ReadyMom wrote:Honestly, I just do not know if this is true or not. I don't know what is true anymore. Are we REALLY looking at increases? Are #'s right? Do we need to be doing all this still? I have NO idea. NONE. All this study, learning, pandemic awareness preparedness and I feel like I'm TOTALLY ignorant of what's REALLY going on. Ârick1 wrote:The CDC director, just minutes ago, warned Americans of an impending doom:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/cdc-director-feeling-impending-doom-amid-spike-76750823
Don't believe Fauchi or Birx any more, either.
IIRC, you are in Pennsylvania. (If not, click on "USA" and find your state.)
Here are the numbers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/pennsylvania/
Skip down to the bottom of the page and look at the "Daily" charts.
Ignore the "Totals" chart, by definition, it will never go down.
So, yes, PA has an uptick. I would not call it a spike, but worth watching.
To put things in perspective, though, heart disease is killing people in Pensylvania at twice the rate of Covid.
I have been telling people for a while (about three weeks) that we are so far along, on the down slope of this pandemic that I figure the vaccination is neutral in its benefit. The balance between a lot of people taking a very small risk by getting the vaccine, compared to fewer people at very high risk from Covid. My thought is that if you have any comorbidity or if you spend time around those who do, I would recommend getting the vaccine. Otherwise, I have no opinion of whether it is a good idea or not.
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If you have other questions, like questions about the "variants" and the mutations, let me know. I can't really remember which subjects I have already written about here. (As opposed to telling people stuff in emails and PM's)
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ReadyMom wrote:Honestly, I just do not know if this is true or not. I don't know what is true anymore. Are we REALLY looking at increases? Are #'s right? Do we need to be doing all this still? I have NO idea. NONE. All this study, learning, pandemic awareness preparedness and I feel like I'm TOTALLY ignorant of what's REALLY going on. Ârick1 wrote:The CDC director, just minutes ago, warned Americans of an impending doom:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/cdc-director-feeling-impending-doom-amid-spike-76750823
ReadyMom, my grandmother used to say that better days are ahead, you got ta think positive even in negative times. Wear a mask and if you feel like getting the vaccine, then get the vaccine.
I agree with what to believe or not to believe. I got the vaccine and they still want you to wear a mask when out in public, don't make sense to me.
Now there's a big push on a vaccine ID, in order to get into public places/transportation, if that passes, then you'll need the vaccine ID for everything, even to go to Burger King.
Our new demonrat government at work.
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There hasn't bee much discussion, except where I bring it up.
I have a new, and robust formula,
and it shows we are past halfway to herd immunity.
Would this be a good time and place for me to post who is approaching herd immunity. Or should I start a new thread?
I have a new, and robust formula,
and it shows we are past halfway to herd immunity.
Would this be a good time and place for me to post who is approaching herd immunity. Or should I start a new thread?
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TRex2 wrote:There hasn't bee much discussion, except where I bring it up.
I have a new, and robust formula,
and it shows we are past halfway to herd immunity.
Would this be a good time and place for me to post who is approaching herd immunity. Or should I start a new thread?
I'm good with here.....
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After thinking it over, and writing some notes, I realized it will take me about four posts to cover the basics, in a way people can follow.
Plus I want people to be able to comment on it, so, to keep it simple, I am creating a new thread for Herd Immunity Discussion.
You can jump to it here:
https://emergencyhomeprep.forumotion.com/t1971-herd-immunity-discussion#11762
Plus I want people to be able to comment on it, so, to keep it simple, I am creating a new thread for Herd Immunity Discussion.
You can jump to it here:
https://emergencyhomeprep.forumotion.com/t1971-herd-immunity-discussion#11762
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If the spread of covid-19 all over the world isn't enough to deal with, now their studying the neurological issues of those that had covid-19.
Life just sucks sometimes:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-neurological-issues-covid-19-132123872.html
Life just sucks sometimes:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-neurological-issues-covid-19-132123872.html
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And then there's the concern that those who are vaxxed are spreading spike proteins to those who are NOT vaxxed. It's the gift that keeps on giving.
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Breakthough cases are on the rise. Hundreds of thousands get covid after being fully vaccinated:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm
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rick1 wrote:Breakthough cases are on the rise. Hundreds of thousands get covid after being fully vaccinated:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm
My dad just turned 90, in March. He has been 'fully vaccinated'. Several weeks later, he got a spinal fracture (we don't know how. It can easily happen at that age from something as simple as a hard cough or a sneeze). He went from hospital to rehab center for extended stay. A week later, during first week in rehab, he's sent back to the hospital ... with Covid ... even though fully vaccinated. Vaccine did it's job (which it's supposed to for that age) and kept his covid at a mild case. He was discharged from hospital less than a week later. Vaccinated does NOT mean immune. So many think it does. I think that's why we are seeing so many breakthrough cases.
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People have tested positive on cruse ship that has everyone fully vaccinated, now what do ya do:
https://breaking911.com/2-passengers-on-first-fully-vaccinated-north-american-cruise-test-positive-for-covid/
https://breaking911.com/2-passengers-on-first-fully-vaccinated-north-american-cruise-test-positive-for-covid/
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rick1 wrote:People have tested positive on cruse ship that has everyone fully vaccinated, now what do ya do:
https://breaking911.com/2-passengers-on-first-fully-vaccinated-north-american-cruise-test-positive-for-covid/
Let me go out on a limb and say, maybe don't go on a cruise with lots of other people crammed into small communal spaces?
Fortunately for folks on that specific cruise the two positive cases are asymptomatic, but it highlights the risks of having people crammed together for days/weeks at a time.
Of course if we get another cruise with the same problems anytime soon then we can kiss the cruise industry goodbye for a few years....
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I wouldn't even consider going on a cruise.... I am not much of a people person...
I still wear a mask in the store just because people are nasty and they didn't seem to learn anything from this covid thing. I see people cough and sneeze without covering their mouths or they cover their mouths and then grab the handle on the grocery cart....
I get funny looks because I am wearing a mask but thats ok because I am usually packing...
I still wear a mask in the store just because people are nasty and they didn't seem to learn anything from this covid thing. I see people cough and sneeze without covering their mouths or they cover their mouths and then grab the handle on the grocery cart....
I get funny looks because I am wearing a mask but thats ok because I am usually packing...
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dmwalsh568 wrote:rick1 wrote:People have tested positive on cruse ship that has everyone fully vaccinated, now what do ya do:
https://breaking911.com/2-passengers-on-first-fully-vaccinated-north-american-cruise-test-positive-for-covid/
Let me go out on a limb and say, maybe don't go on a cruise with lots of other people crammed into small communal spaces?
Fortunately for folks on that specific cruise the two positive cases are asymptomatic, but it highlights the risks of having people crammed together for days/weeks at a time.
Of course if we get another cruise with the same problems anytime soon then we can kiss the cruise industry goodbye for a few years....
At least they caught this before any passengers embarked, but it's looking like the cruise industry is in BIG trouble....
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/royal-caribbean-cruise-postponed-covid/index.html
Royal Caribbean postpones inaugural ship sailing after 8 crew members test positive for Covid-19
"All 1,400 crew onboard Odyssey of the Seas were vaccinated on June 4th and will be considered fully vaccinated on June 18. The positive cases were identified after the vaccination was given and before they were fully effective," Bayley said.
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
I wouldn't go on a cruise for completely unrelated reasons, but this makes no sense. If everyone is vaccinated, they are protected from those occasional people who get infected after being exposed or vaccinated.
If the vulnerable people are vaccinated, we are back to the situation we had in Nov 2019, and the rules should be the same as Nov 2019.
If the vulnerable people are vaccinated, we are back to the situation we had in Nov 2019, and the rules should be the same as Nov 2019.
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TRex2 wrote:I wouldn't go on a cruise for completely unrelated reasons, but this makes no sense. If everyone is vaccinated, they are protected from those occasional people who get infected after being exposed or vaccinated.
If the vulnerable people are vaccinated, we are back to the situation we had in Nov 2019, and the rules should be the same as Nov 2019. Â
Agree with ya TRex. I got the maderna vaccine, 2 shots, 4 weeks apart. Only one thing, it is only 95% affective, so, I still have a 5% chance of getting covid.
Some people think with their feet and not their brains.
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But, even if you are part of the 5% (of the 25% that are susceptible), and do get the virus, it won't be as bad.rick1 wrote:... I got the maderna vaccine, 2 shots, 4 weeks apart. Only one thing, it is only 95% affective, so, I still have a 5% chance of getting covid.
...
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Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Some 4,000, fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts, test positive for covid:
https://www.foxnews.com/health/4000-fully-vaccinated-tested-positive-virus-massachusetts
https://www.foxnews.com/health/4000-fully-vaccinated-tested-positive-virus-massachusetts
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rick1- Posts : 3408
Join date : 2018-08-14
Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
rick1 wrote:Some 4,000, fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts, test positive for covid:
https://www.foxnews.com/health/4000-fully-vaccinated-tested-positive-virus-massachusetts
Reading the article, it's a LOT better than it sounds.
The number of breakthrough cases in the state has been infrequent so far -- accounting for approximately one in 1,000 vaccinated people.
As of June 12, there were 3,791 coronavirus cases among the more than 3.7 million fully vaccinated individuals in Massachusetts, reports said.
"We’re learning that many of the breakthrough infections are asymptomatic or they’re very mild and brief in duration," said Boston University infectious diseases specialist Davidson Hamer, according to the Boston Herald. "The viral load is not very high."
"Breakthroughs are expected, and we need to better understand who’s at risk and whether people who have a breakthrough can transmit the virus to others," he continued. "In some cases, they’ll be shedding such low levels of the virus and won’t be transmitting to others."
So not only have the vaccines been almost 99.9% effective, most of those who do have a breakthrough either have no symptoms or only mild symptoms.
Personally I consider that a major win.
dmwalsh568- Posts : 418
Join date : 2018-09-24
Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
They now say the delta strain is now as transmissible as the common cold and that is not good for anybody:
https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/7/30/22601820/cdc-report-delta-variant-transmission
https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/7/30/22601820/cdc-report-delta-variant-transmission
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rick1- Posts : 3408
Join date : 2018-08-14
Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
I know you've heard of this, but here's an article on illegal immigrants with covid being released throughout the U.S., all while joe crow puts restrictions on us tax paying citizens. What else is the head clown going to do:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/border-patrol-official-covid-migrants-released-day-in-day-out
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/border-patrol-official-covid-migrants-released-day-in-day-out
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rick1- Posts : 3408
Join date : 2018-08-14
Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion
Many more variants of covid on the way, B.1.621 from Columbia seems to be dangerous but more research is needed.
Don't matter, many of the Columbians have already crossed our border, so I'm sure that variant is already in the U.S. somewhere:
https://www.aol.com/news/explainer-beyond-delta-scientists-watching-121201994-151507404.html
Don't matter, many of the Columbians have already crossed our border, so I'm sure that variant is already in the U.S. somewhere:
https://www.aol.com/news/explainer-beyond-delta-scientists-watching-121201994-151507404.html
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rick1- Posts : 3408
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