Re: Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion

by **ReadyMom** Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:57 pm

Yesterday, CIDRAP posted this (posted, above):

ReadyMom wrote: Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Scientists warn nCoV more infectious than SARS, but experts have doubts
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/scientists-warn-ncov-more-infectious-sars-experts-have-doubts

And now, CIDRAP posts this:

HatTip2

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Data suggest nCoV more infectious than 1918 flu, but what does that mean?
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/data-suggest-ncov-more-infectious-1918-flu-what-does-mean

(SNIP) ... Each patient could infect 2+ more

Based on calculations, the authors of the larger study estimate the novel coronavirus has an R0 of 2.2, meaning each case patient could infect more than 2 other people. If accurate, this makes the 2019 nCoV more infectious than the 1918 influenza pandemic virus, which had an R0 of 1.80 (interquartile range: 1.47 to 2.27). ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:59 pm

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

How well new China virus spreads is focus of control efforts
https://chinapost.nownews.com/20200131-944692

Scientists are starting to fill in some key gaps in what’s known about the new virus from China. New research suggests it spreads a little easier than regular flu but not as well as some other respiratory diseases like whooping cough or tuberculosis. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:01 am

From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 31 January 14:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 31 January 2020, 9 836 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 17 healthcare workers and 213 deaths.

Cases have been reported in the following continents:
Asia: China (9 723), Thailand (14), Japan (14), Singapore (13), Taiwan (9), Malaysia ( Cool

, Republic of Korea (7), United Arab Emirates (4), Vietnam (5), Cambodia (1), Nepal (1), The Philippines (1), India (1), and Sri Lanka (1).
Europe: France (6), Germany (5), Italy (2), Finland (1) and UK (2).
America: the United States (6) and Canada (3).
Oceania: Australia (9).

All of the 213 deaths reported have been in China, 204 were from Hubei province, two from Henan province, one from Beijing, one from Hainan province, two from Heilongjiang province, one from Hebei province, one from Shanghai, and one from Sichuan province.

Continent Country / Territory / Area Confirmed cases Deaths
America United States of America 6 0
America Canada 3 0
Asia China 9723 213
Asia India 1 0
Asia Japan 14 0
Asia Republic of Korea 7 0
Asia Taiwan 9 0
Asia Thailand 14 0
Asia Singapore 13 0
Asia Vietnam 5 0
Asia Nepal 1 0
Asia Malaysia 8 0
Asia Philippines 1 0
Asia Sri Lanka 1 0
Asia Cambodia 1 0
Asia United Arab Emirates 4 0
Europe France 6 0
Europe Germany 5 0
Europe Finland 1 0
Europe Italy 2 0
Europe United Kingdom 2 0
Oceania Australia 9 0
_____________________________________________________________
TOTAL 9836 213

by rick1 Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:23 am

Thanks ReadyMom and all in just 30 days.

And there are still airline flights to and from China, from various countries, this includes the U.S., according to FOX news.

by **ReadyMom** Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:14 pm

ReadyMom wrote:From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 31 January 14:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 31 January 2020, 9 836 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 17 healthcare workers and 213 deaths.

Cases have been reported in the following continents:
Asia: China (9 723), Thailand (14), Japan (14), Singapore (13), Taiwan (9), Malaysia (,

Still going up:

Hat Tip to 'Shiloh', FluTrackers:

A total of 9811 cases of new coronavirus pneumonia diagnosed nationwide
https://finance.jrj.com.cn/2020/02/01001328746070.shtml

2020-02-01 00:13:31 Source: Financial website How to determine what to buy on Saturday?

As of 22:41 on January 31, a total of 9811 cases of new coronavirus pneumonia were confirmed, 213 died, 214 cases were cured, and a total of 15,238 suspected cases.

消息 Beijing time on February 1, according to the Global Times, as of 22:41 on January 31, a total of 9811 cases of new coronavirus pneumonia were diagnosed, 213 died, and 214 were cured, with a total of 15,238 suspected cases.

by **ReadyMom** Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:25 pm

So ... it this something NEW with this virus? 'Health incubating' people & recovering patients may still be spreading virus? Not good, if true.

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

(SNIP) ... Since its identification in late December 2019, the number of cases from China that have been imported into other countries is on the rise, and the epidemiologic picture is changing on a daily basis.

(SNIP) ... it is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.3

(SNIP) ... the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery.

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:59 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

What Is a Super Spreader? An Infectious Disease Expert Explains
https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2020/02/01/what_is_a_super_spreader_an_infectious_disease_expert_explains_111277.html

As the emerging Wuhan coronavirus outbreak dominates the daily news, you might be wondering just how the pathogen is working its way around the world. This virus travels from place to place by infecting one person at a time. Some sick people might not spread the virus much further, but it looks like some people infected with the novel coronavirus are what epidemiologists call “super spreaders.”

Elizabeth McGraw, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University, explains just what that means and why super spreaders can be crucial to a disease’s transmission. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:00 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Q&A: How the Coronavirus Differs from the Flu and SARS
https://www.voanews.com/science-health/qa-how-coronavirus-differs-flu-and-sars

VOA spoke to Andy Pekosz, a professor of molecular microbiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, about the coronavirus. His laboratory studies influenza and other respiratory viruses such as SARS, and hantaviruses.

Q: “If you look at this virus compared to the flu, you know, how do they compare with the risk of transmission, like infection rate, death rate, that kind of thing?” ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:03 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Wuhan Coronavirus 'Super-Spreaders' Could Be Wildcards
https://www.wired.com/story/wuhan-coronavirus-super-spreaders-could-be-wildcards/

Stopping the spread of a rapidly emerging disease takes masterful medical detective work, including tracing the people who have been infected and figuring out their web of contacts, steps that are vital to understanding how it’s being transmitted.

(SNIP) ... Yet there’s a potential wildcard, a deviation that throws off the most careful calculations. For reasons that are still unclear, some people, known as super-spreaders, transmit disease much more readily than others, and to many more people. Like an infectious grenade, they can set off a sudden cluster of illnesses. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:05 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Coronavirus: How does this outbreak end?
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/1/31/21115109/coronavirus-outbreak-end-sars-comparison

The new coronavirus outbreak may just be beginning. Epidemiologists outline three broad scenarios for how it could end.

(SNIP) ... These are still early days. Critical questions about the virus — namely how it spreads, and how deadly it is — remain to be firmly answered. But it’s not too soon to wonder: How does this outbreak end?

Right now, infectious disease experts are outlining three broad scenarios for the future of this outbreak. Keep in mind there’s a lot of uncertainty about how this will unfold. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:31 pm

From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 1 February 13:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 1 February 2020, 11 955 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported and 259 deaths.

Cases have been reported on the following continents:
Asia: China (11 818), Thailand (19), Japan (15), Singapore (16), Taiwan (10), Malaysia ( Cool

, Republic of Korea (12), United Arab Emirates (4), Vietnam (5), Cambodia (1), Nepal (1), The Philippines (1), India (1), and Sri Lanka (1).
Europe: Germany (7), France (6), Italy (2), United Kingdom (2), Russia (2), Finland (1), Spain (1) and Sweden (1).
America: the United States (7) and Canada (4).
Oceania: Australia (10).

All 259 deaths reported have been in China, 249 were from Hubei province, two from Henan province, one from Beijing, one from Hainan province, two from Heilongjiang province, one from Hebei province, one from Shanghai, one from Sichuan, and one from Chongqing province.

(RM's NOTE: *= New/Change)

Continent Country / Territory / Area Confirmed cases Deaths
*America United States of America 7 0
*America Canada 4 0
*Asia China 11 818 259
Asia India 1 0
*Asia Japan 15 0
*Asia Republic of Korea 12 0
*Asia Taiwan 10 0
*Asia Thailand 19 0
*Asia Singapore 16 0
Asia Vietnam 5 0
Asia Nepal 1 0
Asia Malaysia 8 0
Asia Philippines 1 0
Asia Sri Lanka 1 0
Asia Cambodia 1 0
Asia United Arab Emirates 4 0
Europe France 6 0
*Europe Germany 7 0
Europe Finland 1 0
Europe Italy 2 0
*Europe [color=#006600Russia 2[/color] 0
*Europe [color=#006600Spain 1[/color] 0
Europe United Kingdom 2 0
*Oceania Australia 10 0
_____________________________________________________________
TOTAL 11 955 259[/quote]

by **ReadyMom** Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:51 pm

There's that 'P' word again:

Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&fbclid=IwAR1dQMCov-DrB1HkqgfA-bNiSgqPyfMlAoXtv66-Pd-Ui7JT0d6J07Tre1s

The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.

The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents — may well have global consequences, despite the extraordinary travel restrictions and quarantines now imposed by China and other countries, including the United States. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:40 pm

From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 2 February 12:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 2 February 2020, 14 564 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported and 305 deaths.

Cases have been reported on the following continents:
Asia: China (14 407), Japan (20), Thailand (19), Singapore (18), Republic of Korea (15), Taiwan (11), Malaysia (8 ), Vietnam (7), United Arab Emirates (5), India (2), The Philippines (2), Cambodia (1), Nepal (1), and Sri Lanka (1).
Europe: Germany (8 ), France (6), Italy (2), United Kingdom (2), Russia (2), Finland (1), Spain (1) and Sweden (1).
America: the United States (8 ) and Canada (4).
Oceania: Australia (12).

Out of the 305 deaths reported, 304 have been reported from China: Hubei (294), Henan (2), Heilongjiang (2), Beijing (1), Hainan (1), Hebei (1), Shanghai (1), Sichuan (1), Chongqing (1).

One death was reported from the Philippines.

(RM's NOTE: *= New/Change)

Continent Country / Territory / Area Confirmed cases Deaths
*America United States of America 8 0
America Canada 4 0
*Asia China 14,407 304
*Asia India 2 0
*Asia Japan 20 0
*Asia Republic of Korea 15 0
*Asia Taiwan 11 0
Asia Thailand 19 0
*Asia Singapore 18 0
*Asia Vietnam 7 0
Asia Nepal 1 0
Asia Malaysia 8 0
*Asia Philippines 2 1
Asia Sri Lanka 1 0
Asia Cambodia 1 0
*Asia United Arab Emirates 6 0
Europe France 6 0
*Europe Germany 8 0
Europe Finland 1 0
Europe Italy 2 0
Europe Russia 2 0
Europe Spain 1 0
*Europe Sweden 1 0
Europe United Kingdom 2 0
*Oceania Australia 12 0
_____________________________________________________________
TOTAL 14 564 305

by oldasrocks Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:14 pm

16618 totql, You need a faster counter. 2/2/20

by TRex2 Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:43 am

ReadyMom wrote:There's that 'P' word again:
...
The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents — may well have global consequences, despite the extraordinary travel restrictions and quarantines now imposed by China and other countries, including the United States. ---CONTINUED---

It was inevitable, from the time we first found that it was infectious before showing symptoms.

The country to country restrictions are holding, for the time being. But they will only delay the inevitable. Once the virus makes it into the general population for any country (or group of countries that can be traveled between by automobile) it will begin geometric growth in that population.

by TRex2 Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:49 am

oldasrocks wrote:16618 totql, You need a faster counter. 2/2/20

Because the progression is geometric, the number of "new" cases will increase each day. It won't be long until we are rounding to the nearest thousand. And the following month, to the nearest million. Geometric progression will continue until the virus begins to run out of "infectable" hosts.

There are two avenues, at this point, for the governments and corporations, to fight this, vaccine to block the spread by reducing the number of "infectable" hosts, and a treatment regimen to stop it from killing people that it infects.

by **ReadyMom** Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:17 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Coronavirus 'could share 89% of its DNA with Sars' – supporting theory it started in bats
https://uk.style.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavirus-could-share-89-of-its-dna-with-sars-supporting-the-theory-it-started-in-bats-133146478.html

(SNIP) ... Of the six coronavirus strains previously known to infect humans, the new one initially appeared most genetically similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which killed 774 people during its 2004 outbreak.

(SNIP) ... Scientists from Fudan University in Shanghai have since found it appears to be 89.1% genetically similar to “a group of Sars-like coronaviruses”.

With Sars having started in bats, this suggests the nocturnal creatures may also be responsible for the new coronavirus, ...

by **ReadyMom** Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:05 pm

ReadyMom wrote:From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 2 February 12:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 2 February 2020, 14 564 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported and 305 deaths.

UPDATE: From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 3 February 9:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 3 February 2020, 17 383 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported and 362 deaths

by **ReadyMom** Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:39 am

ReadyMom wrote:

UPDATE: From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 3 February 9:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 3 February 2020, 17 383 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported and 362 deaths

UPDATE: From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 4 February 11:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 3 February 2020, 20 626 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported and 427 deaths

by TRex2 Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:54 pm

I did the math for projecting number of infections, cases that show symptoms, and fatalities in another thread. I will past them here, since this is an appropriate thread.

https://emergencyhomeprep.forumotion.com/t1422p200-viral-pneumonia-corona-virus-in-china#6501

Good to keep a sense of humor, especially seeing as how life is not permanent.

As to the number, the math I used is as follows:
Use 15 Dec as Zero Day, and assume 100 infections that day,
double the number every four days.
That works out to 6,553,600 infected by the 17th of Feb.

Assuming the average time to present symptoms is 12 days, 819,200
will be showing symptoms, and if it takes another 8 days to kill, and
kills 10% of the time, 10,240 will have died. This will give the
appearance of a much lower fatality rate, since most cases will
not be counted.

That is a fairly pessimistic assessment, but a pessimist is always
happy, because if things turn out really bad, he can say "I told
you so," and if things turn out good, he can say, things are better
than he expected.

by **ReadyMom** Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:23 am

Source: https://www.afp.com/en/news/3954/more-chinese-cities-shut-down-virus-death-toll-rises-doc-1op5o22

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion - Page 2 A74fc03715b210f485083210f4477d34e4f6b342

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion - Page 2 A74fc03715b210f485083210f4477d34e4f6b342

by **ReadyMom** Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:25 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure. ---continued---

by TRex2 Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:33 am

TRex2 wrote:I did the math for projecting number of infections, cases that show symptoms, and fatalities in another thread. I will past them here, since this is an appropriate thread.

https://emergencyhomeprep.forumotion.com/t1422p200-viral-pneumonia-corona-virus-in-china#6501
Good to keep a sense of humor, especially seeing as how life is not permanent.

As to the number, the math I used is as follows:
Use 15 Dec as Zero Day, and assume 100 infections that day,
double the number every four days.
That works out to 6,553,600 infected by the 17th of Feb.

Assuming the average time to present symptoms is 12 days, 819,200
will be showing symptoms, and if it takes another 8 days to kill, and
kills 10% of the time, 10,240 will have died. This will give the
appearance of a much lower fatality rate, since most cases will
not be counted.

That is a fairly pessimistic assessment, but a pessimist is always
happy, because if things turn out really bad, he can say "I told
you so," and if things turn out good, he can say, things are better
than he expected.

This may, or may not, be an indication that Zero Day for European Union outbreak occurred around the 30th of Jan in Bavaria.
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/01/germany-confirms-5th-locally-acquired.html

Two days ago we learned of Germany's first locally acquired coronavirus case, which was detected in an automotive company, and linked to contact with a colleague visiting from China. Twelve hours later, the Bavarian Ministry of Health confirmed that three other employees at the same company had tested positive.
Today a 5th employee has tested positive, making the 5th locally acquired case in Germany, which is the most we've seen in a single country outside of China.
An additional 110 close contacts are being tested, and we may have additional results tomorrow.

If this is the Zero Day for Europe, we should start hearing about several more cases, around the 12th of Feb.

by oldasrocks Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:52 am

Per the mortality rates: If TenPercnt is right on the doctors being force to list other causes of deaths the true mortality rate is several times larger.

From what I've read the severe cases are turned away from the hospital. Not being tested and dying results in skewered death rates.

by TRex2 Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:19 pm

oldasrocks wrote:Per the mortality rates: If TenPercnt is right on the doctors being force to list other causes of deaths the true mortality rate is several times larger.

From what I've read the severe cases are turned away from the hospital. Not being tested and dying results in skewered death rates.

After DTKA pointed out that the SARS virus exhibited an initial morality rate much lower than was later calculated, I realized the statistical flaw, and built it into my formulas.

I am using four days as how long it takes for the number of cases to double, and assume that it takes eight days, on average, from diagnosis until the patient either lives or dies.

Here is the kicker. If you have 1000 patients, and 25 die today, well, those 25 were diagnosed 8 days ago, when there were only 250 patients. There is your 10%, and what you have, in addition to that are 750 new patients, 75 of whom will die, in the next 8 days.

That is something the public doesn't comprehend,
and so, the published mortality rate is 2.5%.

I should point out that 10% is just my estimate, an educated guess, based on the stats I have seen and the math presented here. It may not be exact, but I think it is not far off.

by TRex2 Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:24 pm

It appears that Zero Day for SE Asia may be now.

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/02/thailand-reports-6-new-coronavirus.html

Like Singapore earlier today, Thailand is reporting 6 new cases, of which 4 are in people without recent travel to China. In Thailand's case, 2 of them (a husband and wife) did travel to Japan recently, but it is unknown where they were infected.
Two others are apparently taxi drivers. Increasingly taxi drivers and bus tour guides are showing up as locally acquired cases in Thailand, Japan, and South Korea.
The MOH also confirms they are in conversation with the South Korean government over the suspected carriage of the virus from Thailand to South Korea (see South Korea Reports Imported Coronavirus Case (ex Thailand), but stated that it is inconclusive where this person was infected.

by **ReadyMom** Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:52 am

Hat Tip to 'Pathfinder', FluTrackers:

Translation Google

2020-02-06 14:21:18

Ultraviolet rays can kill viruses · Experts: Let sunlight shine indoors in all places
https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2212348.html

(Petaling Jaya, June 6) With the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Professor Shazari, a virologist at the Centre for Tropical Infectious Disease Research and Education (TIDREC) at the University of Malaysia, advises that all places should ensure air circulation and allow sunlight Indoors.

"The ultraviolet rays of the sun can kill the virus, so all places should let the sun shine indoors."

by **ReadyMom** Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:05 pm

Coronavirus recovery rates ‘promising’, infectious disease expert says
https://www.scmp.com/print/news/china/article/3049601/coronavirus-recovery-rates-promising-infectious-disease-expert-says

Speaking at a press conference in Beijing, Wang Guoqiang, an infectious disease expert at Peking University No 1 Hospital, said that preliminary data about people who had recovered after being infected was promising.
Based on a small sample of discharged patients from Wuhan [2], the city at the centre of the outbreak, Wang said that about 6 per cent had recovered after being in a serious condition, while less than one per cent had recovered after being classed as in critical condition.

“This shows that cases in serious and critical conditions can be treated and discharged from hospital after receiving proactive treatment, and that has given us great confidence,” he said. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:36 pm

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

Chinese scientists announces animal, which is possible carrier of coronavirus
https://112.international/society/chinese-scientists-announces-animal-which-is-possible-carrier-of-coronavirus-48336.html?fbclid=IwAR08qB81RphXHzRyzqxvrJPXmdSpwy00x2mBED0vA8Vnv7aKYUhcdvMqRwc

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion - Page 2 288317

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion - Page 2 288317

Chinese scientists in the results of the investigation named pangolins to be possible carriers of new coronavirus 2019 nCoV as Xinhua reported.

“The sequence of genome of the new strain of coronavirus recovered from pangolins, is identical to the sequence of infected people by 99%; it points out that the pangolins might be the intermediary host of the virus,” the message said.

It is noted that the research was held by South China Agriculture University. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:43 pm

Once this report gets some traction, you'd better get your goggles before they run out too!

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

Coronavirus doctors warned to protect eyes as researchers narrow down animal host
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12306948&fbclid=IwAR1GhFleAi63rdigrD4txNZ22JkKFvzE6mwW0YrUR0DFJdMhXfW_VH6WKiw

Medical experts have warned the coronavirus can spread through the eyes and people – especially doctors – aren't doing enough to protect themselves.

According to a report in The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal, Chinese pneumonia expert Guangfa Wang was infected by the 2019-nCoV virus while visiting Wuhan last month.

He wore a face mask during his visit, but did not wear any protective eyewear and later complained of "redness of the eyes".

"As ophthalmologists, we believe that transmission of 2019-nCoV through the eyes was ignored," the report said.

"Unprotected exposure of the eyes to 2019-nCoV in the Wuhan Fever Clinic might have allowed the virus to infect the body."

The report noted that SARS – another type of coronavirus – also spread via the "mucous membranes in the eyes, mouth or nose".

"All ophthalmologists examining suspected cases should wear protective eyewear," it said.

by **ReadyMom** Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:47 pm

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

Half of secondary virus infections occur in incubation period: study
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half-of-secondary-virus-infections-occur-in-incubation-period-study.html?fbclid=IwAR265UG4YiAMaGCYekaMeNPInNiFDe6cW5DFYsFNWWDw6-9a5vMWycs9FsQ

At least one of every two instances of human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus is believed to occur while the first patient is not yet showing symptoms, according to an estimate by a group of Japanese university researchers.

Based on its determination, the team, headed by Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, has called for preventive measures as well as reinforcing the medical care system against a potential sharp rise in coronavirus patients, rather than focusing exclusively on isolation as a way to contain the disease.

According to the estimate based on 26 human-to-human infection cases released by six countries such as China, Thailand and the United States, the timing of the secondary infection was shorter than previously thought. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:02 pm

Situation update – worldwide
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 7 February 2020 8:00 CET, 31 503 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 638 deaths.

Cases have been reported on the following continents:
Asia: China (31 217), Japan (86), Singapore (30), Thailand (25), Republic of Korea (24), Malaysia (14), Taiwan (16), Vietnam (12), United Arab Emirates (5), India (3), the Philippines (3), Cambodia (1), Nepal (1) and Sri Lanka (1).
America: the United States (12) and Canada (7).
Oceania: Australia (15).
Europe: Germany (13), France (6), United Kingdom (3), Italy (3), Russia (2), Belgium (1), Finland (1), Spain (1) and Sweden (1).

Of the 638 deaths reported, 637 have been reported from China: Hubei (618), Heilongjiang (3), Henan (3), Chongqing (2), Beijing (1), Guangdong (1), Hainan (2), Hebei (1), Hong Kong (1), Jilin (1), Shanghai (1), Sichuan (1), Tianjin (1) and Guizhou (1).

One death has been reported from the Philippines. ---continued----

by TRex2 Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:16 am

ReadyMom wrote:Situation update – worldwide
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 7 February 2020 8:00 CET, 31 503 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 638 deaths.
...

As, has been pointed out, the number of laboratory confirmed cases is a source of massive under-counting, these numbers are probably far less than the real number.

I do see some good news, however, in the discussion - China thread, this article was linked:
https://nypost.com/2020/02/06/drone-captures-eerie-scenes-of-coronavirus-ravaged-wuhan/
and it tells of Wuhan looking like a ghost town. This may be one of the best quarantine measures they have taken. If people are not out in the streets, infected people will mostly be interacting with others who are already infected. While this won't stop the spread it will slow it, substantially, thus buying more time for other measures (treatment, and maybe someday, vaccine) to improve.

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:28 pm

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Virus in the deep down, new challenge against the 2019-nCoV battle
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-08/Virus-in-the-deep-down-new-challenge-against-the-2019-nCoV-battle-NVf5CGZvcA/index.html

The effectiveness of the coronavirus test kit is under questioning after a confirmed patient failed to test the novel virus three times, Beijing News reported.

(SNIP) ... An anonymous respiratory physician in Beijing told Beijing News a routine checkup to a suspect case requires two oropharyngeal swabs tests. As long as there is one positive result, then the case can be confirmed by doctors. But if both results are negative, the patient is likely to be ruled out.

(SNIP) ... "Lesions occur in the lungs, that is, the lower respiratory tract, sometimes just testing the oropharyngeal swabs in the upper respiratory tract cannot help find the pathogen," Ding Xinmin, chief physician of respiratory department at Beijing Shijitan Hospital explained ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:04 pm

Shanghai officials reveal novel coronavirus transmission modesc
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/08/WS5e3e7d97a310128217275fc3.html

Confirmed transmission routes of the novel coronavirus include direct transmission, contact transmission and aerosol transmission, a Shanghai official said on Saturday. “Aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols, which causes infection after inhalation, according to medical experts,” said Zeng Qun, deputy head of the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau. “As such, we have called on the public to raise their awareness of the prevention and control of the disease caused by family gatherings,” said Zeng during at a daily media briefing by the municipal government regarding efforts to contain the spread of the virus. Experts explained that direct transmission refers to infection caused by inhalation of air close to a patient who sneezes and coughs, while contact transmission occurs when a person touches an object tainted with droplets containing the virus before infecting himself through subsequent contact with the membranes of his mouth, nose and eyes. —-continued—-

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:53 pm

China nCoV cases continue at stable rate, concerns rise about spread in Singapore
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/china-ncov-cases-continue-stable-rate-concerns-rise-about-spread-singapore

China added nearly 3,400 new novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases today, a pace that the World Health Organization (WHO) said has been stable over the past 4 days. Outside of China, concerns are growing about possible sustained transmission in Singapore. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:11 pm

New study an eye-opener on how coronavirus is spreading and how little we know
https://us.cnn.com/2020/02/08/health/coronavirus-hospital-infections-frieden/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1D0m-rZ6LyQwPax0CbvSG-bOYDHgHfy6fuv9a7BCKmZxtiBByyeoFr4n0

Editor's Note: Dr. Tom Frieden is the former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and former commissioner of the New York City Health Department. He is currently president and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives, a global non-profit initiative funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies, the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and part of the global non-profit Vital Strategies. The views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

A study published Friday in the medical journal JAMA found that 41% of the first 138 patients diagnosed at one hospital in Wuhan, China, were presumed to be infected in that hospital.
This is big news. In plain English, it means that nearly half of the initial infections in this hospital appear to have been spread within the hospital itself. This is called nosocomial transmission. (Doctors use big words to hide bad things: Nosocomial means caught it in the hospital.) ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:24 pm

ReadyMom wrote:Situation update – worldwide
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 7 February 2020 8:00 CET, 31 503 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 638 deaths.

Situation update – worldwide
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 9 February 2020, 37 564 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 813 deaths.

Cases have been reported on the following continents: ---CONTINUED---

by TRex2 Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:26 am

ReadyMom wrote:...
Situation update – worldwide
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
...
Cases have been reported on the following continents: ...

The think I look for are cases where the person has not been to china, and they don't really know where, or from whom, they actually picked up the virus.

When I see that, that is when I start calculating breakout day zero.

by **ReadyMom** Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:25 am

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

Coronavirus global pandemic 'looking likely' - NZ health expert
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/02/coronavirus-global-pandemic-looking-likely-nz-health-expert.html

The new coronavirus appears to be spreading in a "silent transmission" pattern, and is looking far more like a pandemic than Sars was in 2003, a public health expert says.

The virus has now killed more than 800 people with more than 37,000 people confirmed to have been infected worldwide.

The vast majority - all but 360 of the cases and all but two of the deaths - have been in mainland China, although the first deaths of non-Chinese nationals were also reported over the weekend with an American man and a Japanese man both dying in Wuhan. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:37 am

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

Coronavirus could have incubation period of 24 days — 10 days longer than previously thought
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-incubation-period-symptoms-china-sars-length-days-time-a9326591.html

Medical researchers in China have found the incubation period for coronavirus ranges up to 24 days — 10 days longer than experts previously thought.

The research was co-authored by Dr Zhong Nanshan, who discovered the SARS coronavirus in 2003 and has been appointed as a leading advisor in managing the current coronavirus crisis.

Current advice from health organisations and ministries say the virus’ incubation period is as long as 14 days, based on the incubation period of previous MERS viruses.

by **ReadyMom** Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:57 am

TRex2 wrote:
The think I look for are cases where the person has not been to china, and they don't really know where, or from whom, they actually picked up the virus.

When I see that, that is when I start calculating breakout day zero.

Related to what you wrote:

HatTip2

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Factbox: Here is what WHO experts are watching on the coronavirus' spread
https://in.reuters.com/article/health-china-who-issues/factbox-here-is-what-who-experts-are-watching-on-the-coronavirus-spread-idINKBN2041KR

GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) is tracking the epidemic of the new coronavirus in China and how it is spread abroad, as its advance team of international experts travel there to help investigate the outbreak. ---CONTINUED---

by TRex2 Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:07 am

ReadyMom wrote:
TRex2 wrote:
The think I look for are cases where the person has not been to china, and they don't really know where, or from whom, they actually picked up the virus.
When I see that, that is when I start calculating breakout day zero.
Related to what you wrote:
Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:
Factbox: Here is what WHO experts are watching on the coronavirus' spread

Interesting to see all of that in a single article.

by **ReadyMom** Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:52 am

ReadyMom wrote:Situation update – worldwide
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 9 February 2020, 37 564 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 813 deaths.

Cases have been reported on the following continents: ---CONTINUED---

Situation update – worldwide
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and 10 February 2020, 40 553 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 910 deaths.

Cases have been reported on the following continents: ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:56 am

Case Count As of 02/11/2020 12.53 AM:
https://ncov2019.live/data

Quick Facts -- Data is updated every 10 minutes

43,102 Total Confirmed Cases

464 International Confirmed Cases

1,018 Total Deaths

3,996 Total Recovered

21,675 Total suspected

26⁄190 Total Countries Infected

by Dave58 Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:11 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

Interesting read

by **ReadyMom** Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:29 pm

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

CDC: Coronavirus may be seasonal, yet it's 'premature' to bank on springtime relief
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/12/cdc-coronavirus-may-be-seasonal-yet-premature-bank/

A U.S. health official on Wednesday said respiratory diseases tend to be seasonal and decrease in warmer months but that it is “premature” to assume the new virus from China will die off in the spring.

“This is a new disease, We haven’t been through six weeks of it, much less a year,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). “I think it’s premature to assume that [cases will die off in spring]. The aggressive actions we’re taking are because we can’t count on that.” ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:32 pm

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Hong Kong Health Officials: Coronavirus May Have Spread Through Bathroom Pipes
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/02/12/hong-kong-health-officials-coronavirus-may-have-spread-through-bathroom-pipes/

Hong Kong health officials on Tuesday evacuated residents from a high-rise apartment building called Hong Mei House because at least five of the city’s 42 confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have been linked to the building.

The authorities believe the virus may have spread through poorly-designed toilets and bathroom pipes in the public housing project. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:44 pm

Coronavirus: Here’s how humans have become super spreader of nCoV but some may not pass it on easy
https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/health/coronavirus-heres-how-humans-have-become-super-spreader-of-ncov-but-some-may-not-pass-it-on-easy/1866086/

In an interesting turn of events driven by Coronavirus, it has come out that some humans are super spreader of the virus while other people may not be able to pass it on that readily, a research study by The Telegraph revealed. According to the research, the rapid spread of the virus could be because of “atypical symptoms” some patients can have in the early stages after being infected by nCoV. The research was done after studying around 138 people diagnosed with Coronavirus in Wuhan ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:56 pm

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Experts are probing whether the coronavirus can be spread through communal sewage systems after a Hong Kong high-rise found 2 cases 10 floors apart
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hong-kong-high-rise-sewage-pipe-investigation-2020-2

Hong Kong health authorities are investigating whether the Wuhan coronavirus can be spread via communal sewage systems after two households living ten floors apart reported positive for the disease, CNN reported.

A 62-year-old woman as found with the deadly virus about a week-and-a-half after a 75-year-old man, who lives above her in the same building, became infected, CNN reported. They both live in Hong Mei House, a 35-floor building in the larger social-housing Cheung Hong Estate in Tsing Yi.

The virus has since spread to the woman's son and his wife, who live with her, and the wife's father, CNN reported. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:41 pm

Hat Tip to 'Sharky', FluTrackers:

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

by **ReadyMom** Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:44 pm

Hat Tip to 'Pathfinder', FluTrackers:

Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675v1

Yang Yang, Qingbin Lu, Mingjin Liu, Yixing Wang, Anran Zhang, Neda Jalali, Natalie Dean, Ira Longini, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Bo Xu, Xiaoai Zhang, Liping Wang, Wei Liu, Liqun Fang
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675
...
The overall CFR was estimated be 3.06% (95% CI 2.02-4.59%), but male patients, ≥60 years old, baseline diagnosis of severe pneumonia and delay in diagnosis were associated with substantially elevated CFR. The R0 was estimated to be 3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05), ranging 2.23-4.82 in sensitivity analyses varying the incubation and infectious periods. Conclusions: Compared with SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV had comparable transmissibility and lower CFR. Our findings based on individual-level surveillance data emphasize the importance of early detection of elderly patients, particularly males, before symptoms progress to severe pneumonia.

by **ReadyMom** Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:51 pm

15,000 !!!!! Shocked

Hat Tip to 'Treyfish', FluTrackers:

China Coronavirus Cases Surge Almost 15,000 After Data Revision
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/china-coronavirus-cases-jump-after-counting-method-revision

Bloomberg News February 12, 2020, 7:15 PM EST Updated on February 12, 2020, 8:28 PM EST

New category of “cases confirmed by clinical diagnosis” added
Spike is likely to intensify public anger over delayed info

by **ReadyMom** Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:00 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Covid-2019: Airborne transmission is most frequent way of infection
https://112.international/society/covid-2019-airborne-transmission-is-most-frequent-way-of-infection-48521.html

Most frequently, the spread of the coronavirus is taking place across airborne transmission or direct contact. Chinese outlet Beijing News reported that quoting a representative of the Chinese Healthcare Ministry.

"Emission of the virus from the feces of the sick does not change the main route of the spread of infection. Just like before, it spreads across the airways or direct contact", the authority's representative said.

He also commented on the article released by the Guangzhou Medical Center; it said that the feces of the sick could contain coronavirus, which leads to a threat of possible contamination of venting systems and sewers of living houses and hospitals, making them dangerous for healthy people. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:29 am

Ladies ... we're a strong bunch!

HatTip2

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Men appear to be more vulnerable to the coronavirus: report
https://www.foxnews.com/health/men-more-vulnerable-coronavirus-report

Scientists believe that males could be more vulnerable to the coronavirus because they may have a weaker immune response to the disease, according to a column by Financial Times.

(SNIP) ... Roughly two-thirds of 99 infected patients admitted to a Wuhan hospital last month were men, science writer Anjana Ahuja wrote, citing a Lancet medical study published on Jan. 30. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:32 am

ReadyMom wrote:15,000 !!!!!

Hat Tip to 'Treyfish', FluTrackers:

China Coronavirus Cases Surge Almost 15,000 After Data Revision
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/china-coronavirus-cases-jump-after-counting-method-revision

MORE on this:

HatTip2

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Huge jump in coronavirus cases and deaths in China as U.S. confirms 15th case
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-death-toll-infections-outbreak-evacuations-cruise-ship-latest-updates-2020-02-13/

Doctors in China adopted a new way of diagnosing the novel coronavirus, leading to a huge jump in both the official number of deaths blamed on the disease and the tally of confirmed cases in the country at the heart of the outbreak. Officials in Hubei province, the Chinese region where the virus is believed to have jumped into the human population from wild animals, reported 254 new deaths and 15,152 new cases of the flu-like virus. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:25 pm

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

Expert: COVID-19 pneumonia progresses faster than SARS
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-14/Expert-COVID-19-pneumonia-progresses-faster-than-SARS-O4J1tTExig/index.html

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) on patients of the novel coronavirus pneumonia progresses faster than on SARS patients, Tong Chaohui, vice president of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, said in a press conference on Thursday. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:32 pm

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

How COVID-19 Kills: The New Coronavirus Disease Can Take A Deadly Turn
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/14/805289669/how-covid-19-kills-the-new-coronavirus-disease-can-take-a-deadly-turn

(SNIP) ... according to the World Health Organization, the disease is relatively mild in about 80% of cases, based on preliminary data from China.

What does mild mean?

And how does this disease turn fatal?

(SNIP) ... But the new coronavirus attacks the lungs, and in about 20% of patients, infections can get more serious. As the virus enters lung cells, it starts to replicate, destroying the cells, explains Dr. Yoko Furuya, an infectious disease specialist at Columbia University Irving Medical Center. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:36 pm

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

Coronavirus spreads in 3 main ways: This one worries the CDC most
https://www.slashgear.com/coronavirus-spreads-in-3-main-ways-this-one-worries-the-cdc-most-14609903/

(SNIP) ... One of the most pressing questions is the mechanisms of just how that person-to-person spread might take place. COVID-19 has a roughly fourteen day incubation period, and one of the challenges that healthcare providers face is that, if tested too early, the current tests for the infection can return a false-negative. ---CONTINUED---

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