Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion

by **ReadyMom** Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:39 pm

'Current' stats ... I don't think I believe them anymore, but here they are:

HatTip2

Hat Tip to 'tetano', FluTrackers:

As of 2020-1-25 4:55:13 Statistics
http://m.medsci.cn/wh.asp

All: 908 cases were confirmed, 3746 cases were in close contact, 1077 cases were suspected, 38 cases were cured, 26 cases were dead
National Distribution of New Coronavirus Pneumonia (Real Time)

Incidence trend of new coronavirus pneumonia in the past 30 days

see graphic

by **ReadyMom** Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:00 pm

Oke ... ANOTHER is voicing concern. I DON'T Like THIS! Comp-Smash

Hat Tip to 'Jim Oliveros', FluTrackers:

It wouldn't surprise me if the number of confirmed cases increases fairly dramatically here in the U.S. and elsewhere, for the following reasons (just my humble opinion):

1) I am convinced that this coronavirus was well established in humans in the city of Wuhan weeks or even months before the first reports surfaced in late December.

2) It appears to easily transmit H2H and has an incubation period of at least several days, if not more, making it very likely that people were exposed and traveled before becoming symptomatic.

3) Thousands of people likely passed through Wuhan and traveled broadly before it was identified, many even as late as last week before serious attempts were made to screen travelers.

4) Given that we're at peak flu season, many cases may have been mistaken for flu.

5) Over just the past week we are hearing ever increasing reports of suspected cases that are distributed over broad geographic areas.

6) After reading the available reports, I believe that it is impossible to claim that any efforts at containment were successful and are likely too little, too late.

Colleges and universities are particularly vulnerable because students coming from abroad could have been exposed and then went to school where there are large numbers of people in close quarters. I expect to see confirmed cases in college students over the coming weeks.

It wouldn't surprise me if the CDC discovers that some "flu deaths" might actually have been coronavirus.

I expect that by this time next week we'll have hundreds of confirmed cases and suspected H2H transmission. I can only hope that the R0 and case fatality rate are much lower than previous coronavirus outbreaks. Time to dust off our preparedness plans.

I don't want to sound like an alarmist and I am happy to be completely wrong, but if this does turn into a pandemic, I fear it will happen more quickly than the flu outbreaks.

by **ReadyMom** Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:00 pm

So ... lets talk about the CFR (Combined Fatality Rate). Over at FluTrackers, there are a couple of posts I'm sharing. I don't like the #'s. I remember following all this so close for the H5N1 virus (Bird Flu). That was scary ... but over a longer period of time. This feels like it is all happening quick. Anyone else from the 2006 days feeling like that?

HatTip2

Hat Tip to 'tetano', FLuTrackers

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causing severe acute respiratory disease emerged recently in Wuhan, China. Information on reported cases strongly indicates human-to-human spread, and the most recent information is increasingly indicative of sustained human-to-human transmission. While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9–32%).

full article: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044#html_fulltext

And this:

Hat Tip 'WildernessRetreat', FluTrackers:

On Jan 10, 2020 Confirmed cases was 41... From records of the first 17 deaths, the average days from contraction to death was about 17 days...On Jan. 25, fifteen days after Jan 10 when 41 cases were confirmed, 41 were reported dead from the virus. We know it's not killing 100% of the confirmed cases but this also tells us that a lot more people are sick than are being listed as confirmed carriers. At one time I was under the impression that there were only 15 confirmed in the original cluster. I can't find that story anymore. Most stories say there were 27 cases of pneumonia on Dec. 31 2019 in Wuhan. (i couldn't find out how many of those cases were confirmed Wuhan virus). Either way we're looking at a death rate that is so high that it will drive the world economy to it's knees, somewhere between 12% and 30% could die after contracting this virus. This is a farmers math project, so don't hate me if I'm wrong.

by **ReadyMom** Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:33 am

LONG read from CIDRAP. Last couple of paragraphs have the stats.

Studies highlight nCoV similarity with SARS, family transmission
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/studies-highlight-ncov-similarity-sars-family-transmission

Jim Wappes | Editorial Director | CIDRAP News | Jan 24, 2020

Early data from Wuhan, China, illustrate some similar clinical symptoms between the first 41 hospital cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and SARS, while another study today in the same journal details person-to-person and between-city transmission of the virus in six family members.

A third study, meanwhile, estimates that 14% of people hospitalized with a 2019-nCoV infection will die.

The nCoV outbreak came to light in Wuhan in the last days of December and today topped 900 cases globally, with the vast majority in China, though several countries, including the United States (see related CIDRAP News story) have confirmed imported cases.

Severe illness in hospitalized patients

In the first study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, researchers from Wuhan, Beijing, and China's National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases describe high rates of respiratory distress, intensive care admission, and abnormal findings on chest computed tomography (CT) in the first 41 patients hospitalized from Dec 16 to Jan 2 in Wuhan, as well as a 15% death rate (six patients died).

Like SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), which spread around the globe in 2003, eventually infecting more than 8,000 people, most patients infected with 2019-nCoV were previously healthy, with only 13 (32%) having underlying conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure, or heart disease. Also, 2019-nCoV patients had a broad range of symptoms: pneumonia (41, 100%), fever (40, 98%), cough (32, 76%), and fatigue (18, 44%). Over half of patients also experienced shortness of breath (22, 55%), but headache (3, 8%) and diarrhea (1, 3%) were uncommon.

Twelve 2019-nCoV patients (29%) developed acute respiratory distress syndrome, and 13 (32%) were admitted to intensive care. All had pneumonia and abnormal findings on chest CT.

"Despite sharing some similar symptoms to SARS (eg, fever, dry cough, shortness of breath), there are some important differences, such as the absence of upper respiratory tract symptoms (eg, rhinorrhoea [runny nose], sneezing, sore throat) and intestinal symptoms, such as diarrhoea which affected 20-25% of SARS patients," explains lead author Bin Cao, MD, from the China-Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, in a Lancet news release.

Two thirds of patients (27) had visited the Hunan seafood market that was linked to the first cases in the outbreak. The marked also housed other animals, such as poultry, bats, marmots, and other wildlife. Thirty patients (73%) were men, and patients' median age was 49, with almost half (20) in the 25- to 49-year-old age-group. All were adults.

Twenty-eight of the patients (68%) had been discharged from the hospital by Jan 22.

The authors of the study write, "More efforts should be made to know the whole spectrum and pathophysiology of the new disease."

Within-family disease spread

The second study, also published today in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, features a bit of an epidemiologic smorgasbord: a family cluster, person-to-person transmission, cross-country travel, a child who avoided infection, and another who became infected but had no symptoms.

The study, led by investigators from the University of Hong Kong, also notes that none of the seven family members visited a live-animal market. The researchers conducted genetic analyses of specimens from the family and noted detailed trace-back information.

The first 2019-nCoV patient, a 65-year-old woman from Shenzhen, visited a 1-year-old relative in Wuhan, 550 straight-line miles (890 kilometers) away, on Dec 29. The relative was hospitalized at the time with a fever and pneumonia.

Upon returning to Shenzhen, the woman was admitted to the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital (HKU-SZH) on Jan 10 along with her 66-year-old husband, after both of them had developed symptoms.

Clinicians assessed four other family members the next day—a 37-year-old daughter, 36-year-old son-in-law, and their two asymptomatic children—all of whom had also traveled to Wuhan. A seventh family member, the 63-year-old mother of the son-in-law, who had not made the trip but had housed several family members on their return, also fell ill and was admitted to HKU-SZH on Jan 15.

Genetic testing found that five patients were positive for the spike protein that 2019-nCoV uses to enter cells. Of these, researchers identified the complete 2019-nCoV genome in two.

One of the children, who was reported by the mother to have worn a surgical mask for most of the stay in Wuhan, was not infected. The other child was infected with 2019-nCoV but had no clinical symptoms, which suggests people may be able to spread infections without knowing it.

None of the six family members visited food markets or had contact with animals during their stay in Wuhan. The authors say that the most likely explanation for the cluster is that the 65-year-old woman acquired the disease from her 1-year-old relative, then transmitted it to four other family members during their 7-day trip, and to the other mother-in-law after flying home to Shenzhen city in Hong Kong.

All six patients were hospitalized in isolation and remain stable as of Jan 20.

"With the improved surveillance network and laboratory capability developed following the SARS pandemic, China has now been able to recognise this new outbreak within a few weeks and has made the virus genome publicly available to help control its spread," says co-author Rosana Wing-Shan Poon, PhD, from the University of Hong Kong, in the Lancet release. "Learning the lessons from SARS, which started as animal-to-human transmission, all game meat trading should be better regulated to terminate this potential transmission route."

Writing in a related commentary, three infectious disease experts say, "The general public should be motivated to report fever and other risk factors for coronavirus infection, including travel history to affected area and close contacts with confirmed or suspected cases. Considering that substantial numbers of patients with SARS and MERS [Middle East respiratory syndrome] were infected in health-care settings, precautions need to be taken to prevent nosocomial spread of the virus."

In a second commentary, David Heymann, MD, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, says of both studies, "When pieced together, these emerging data will permit regular refinement of the risk assessment, and real-time guidance to countries for patient management and outbreak control, including the best case definition for use in surveillance around outbreak sites and elsewhere."

In an editorial on the two studies, Lancet editors stress the importance of open-access data and say they will make all 2019-nCoV content freely available.

Estimated 14% death rate in hospital patients

In the third study, published yesterday in Eurosurveillance, Hong Kong scientists estimate a 14% case-fatality rate (CFR) in hospitalized 2019-nCoV patients.

The group employed mathematical modeling based on publically available information, mainly from Wuhan health authorities. Their data included the first 41 hospitalized patients in Wuhan, the first case in Thailand and South Korea, family clusters reported on Jan 15 and 16, 136 new infections reported in Wuhan on Jan 20, and other cases.

Although the authors write, "It is challenging to judge severity from the information available to date," their estimates put the CFR around 14% in hospitalized patients.

They add, "Given that the cases reported outside Wuhan have mostly not been severe, it would be reasonable to infer that there might be a large number of undetected relatively mild infections in Wuhan and that the infection fatality risk is below 1% or even below 0.1%."

by **ReadyMom** Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:52 am

Hat Tip to 'alert', FLuTrackers:

R0 appears to be 3-4, according to some estimates. This isn't going to be contained by quarantines and isolation like SARS was.

The number of actual infections is probably huge. I've done a couple different calculations based on the number of exported cases, and I think we're talking 50k-100k cases already in Wuhan itself, which still is less than a 1% attack rate in the city. If this virus had even a 5% CFR, you'd have about 2000-4000 dead or dying by now.

Of course, there's a huge difference between a pandemic at 0.3% CFR and one at 3% CFR.

The very low number of discharges is also a little concerning, but I'm assuming that's a precaution to prevent people from spreading the virus. Only 38 discharges total in all of China, of which 28 of them are from the first 41 hospitalized cases.

I hope there are samples in Wuhan of pneumonia patients from November and December to test for this virus retroactively. It's possible that this virus didn't jump to humans in that seafood market, but rather that the large crowds gathering in that market resulted in enough cases to draw attention, in much the same was that 2009 H1N1 was only first noticed when it hit large cities like Mexico City and Oaxaca, despite circulating in humans for weeks.

by rick1 Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:35 am

There are now 63 possible cases, in 22 states being investigated for the coronavirus, although, some that have been tested, have come back negative:

https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-confirms-coronavirus-case-chicago-dozens-under-investigation

by Dave58 Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:59 am

Does anybody know what states are on alert ??? I can't seem to find it anywhere...

Thanks

by **ReadyMom** Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:35 am

I've started a spread sheet. Just got on line, so have to see what's happened since last night. .... Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion 4074591684

by **ReadyMom** Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:49 am

Shiloh, FluTrackers::

Source: http://news.timedg.com/2020-01/25/21016669.shtml

Translated (snip)
Domestic News> Pneumonia Epidemic 24 Hours 丨

The CPC Central Committee Establishes Leading Group for Response to Epidemics 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have initiated response to first-level public health incidents

Pneumonia epidemic 24 hours 丨
The party's central government set up a leading group to respond to the epidemic, 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have initiated first-level public health incident response

Source: CCTV News 2020-01-25 22:25:19 Reporter:

1372 new cases of coronavirus pneumonia confirmed in China

According to statistics reported by relevant departments, as of 18:00 on January 25:

A total of 1,372 confirmed cases of pneumonitis with new-type coronavirus infection and 41 deaths (39 in Hubei Province, 1 in Hebei Province, and 1 in Heilongjiang) were reported in 29 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). 39 patients have been cured and discharged.

A total of 10 confirmed cases were reported from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, including 5 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2 in the Macao Special Administrative Region, and 3 in Taiwan.

A total of 26 confirmed cases were reported abroad, including 2 in the United States, 4 in Thailand (2 have been cured), 3 in Japan (1 has been cured), 2 in Korea, 2 in Vietnam, 3 in Singapore, and 1 in Nepal. There were 2 cases in France, 3 cases in Malaysia and 4 cases in Australia...

by **ReadyMom** Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:25 am

Hat Tip to 'Ronan Kelly', FluTrackers:

Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351v1

View ORCID ProfileJulien Riou, View ORCID ProfileChristian L Althaus
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351

This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?].

Abstract
Info/History
Metrics
Preview PDF

Abstract

On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was notified about a cluster of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in the city of Wuhan, China. Chinese authorities later identified a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as the causative agent of the outbreak. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases have been confirmed in China and several other countries. Understanding the transmission characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV is critically important for coordinating current screening and containment strategies, and determining whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We performed stochastic simulations of early outbreak trajectories that are consistent with the epidemiological findings to date. We found the basic reproduction number, R_0, to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4--3.8 ), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of a similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the 1918 pandemic influenza. These findings underline the importance of heightened screening, surveillance and control efforts, particularly at airports and other travel hubs, in order to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV.

by TRex2 Sat Jan 25, 2020 1:45 pm

My earlier (10 hours ago) calculations indicated the number of victims is doubling every 5 days.

(Peer review means someone else in the same field of study has reviewed to insure you aren't being carried away by your emotions on the subject.)

The article above indicates the virus is moving faster than my calculations, maybe doubling the number of victims every 3 or 4 days.

by Drinkthekoolaid Sat Jan 25, 2020 1:57 pm

TRex2 wrote:My earlier (10 hours ago) calculations indicated the number of victims is doubling every 5 days.

(Peer review means someone else in the same field of study has reviewed to insure you aren't being carried away by your emotions on the subject.)

The article above indicates the virus is moving faster than my calculations, maybe doubling the number of victims every 3 or 4 days.

The worst part of this is we honestly don't know the number. Calculations might be exponentially off because the Chinese government is far from reliable.

If the Chinese government is being truthful and transparent, then the information is more likely to be accurate.

If, (and my gut says this is more likely) china is fudging the numbers and significantly under reporting (as many of the Twitter type accounts are indicating is true) then we might have exponentially more cases than we know.

This is the biggest frustration for me, is I'm not even sure what we're dealing with. China is trying very hard to black out as much as they can, but the information that gets out is down right scary.

Not a single credible report has said, hey guys pump the brakes slow down, it's not as bad as it looks.

by **ReadyMom** Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:22 pm

Hat Tip to 'Laidback Al', FluTrackers:

Yes, a serious situation alright. Current projections are thousands more cases in the next few days in China. See the graph below.

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion Fetch?id=824684&d=1579976211

by TRex2 Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:32 pm

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:...
The worst part of this is we honestly don't know the number. Calculations might be exponentially off because the Chinese government is far from reliable.

If the Chinese government is being truthful and transparent, then
...

Let me get back to the other side of the argument.

The report above that indicates the number of victims is doubling faster than every 4 days is what is known in the Intel field as "single source intel" (similar to not peer reviewed, in science) and should not be relied upon. If the Chinese government is being truthful and transparent, then we still have the problem that, like any government, they can't find their ass with both hands.

It is just as likely we are off by an order of magnitude in the other direction, because cases they didn't see before are coming to light. So the number of victims may be doubling every 10 days.

There is one other thing that my bring optimism.

As an example, I am near blind in my right eye, from a genetic mutation that my mother gave to me, that left me extra vulnerable to the Texas sun, and my son is blind in his left eye because of a completely unrelated genetic mutation from his mother. The mutation I have is almost unknown in Italians and Mexicans. In the same way, this virus may only attack people with certain genetic codes.

It may be that only a small percentage of the populace is vulnerable. If that is true, we will see a marked slowdown in cases, in about a month or so, as the number of available hosts dwindles.
(That is why measles, which kills 20+% of a new population, rarely kills in a population that it is endemic in. Measles has simply run out of vulnerable people in our population.)

by Drinkthekoolaid Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:52 pm

@trex I sure hope you're right!

I was just reading this article. It's an interesting coincidence.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-has-two-laboratories-linked-chines/

It's equivalent to a new highly infectious disease popping up outside fort Detrick in Baltimore or Fredrick.

by TRex2 Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:45 pm

We can no longer rule out the possibility that this was a Bio Warfare accident. The good news, then, is that improves the odds that the virus can only host in a particular fraction of the population. (Explanation is too long and complex to detail here.)

One not well known thing about viruses, is that the can use a bacteria for a host. (This happened in the past, producing a new and dangerous e-coli strain in cows.) I can't help but wonder, based on the mode of transmission and symptoms, if they were using Anthax as a host for something like SARS, or even the common cold.

But the guy from Israel was very careful not to directly say the very item that was in the headlines. He did not say that the Lab was involved in this, or any other Bio Warfare experimenting. So, we don't really know.

by Dave58 Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:16 pm

At the risk of sounding stupid what does CFR and RO stand for pls ??? Huh?Sign

by **ReadyMom** Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:18 pm

Dave58 wrote:At the risk of sounding stupid what does CFR and RO stand for pls ???

CFR = Combined Fatality Rate

RO = Rate of Infection

by Dave58 Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:30 pm

Thank you RM

by TRex2 Sat Jan 25, 2020 5:41 pm

Dave58 wrote: Thank you RM

Don't feel too alone. I am not used to those particular acronyms (they are different from the ones I learned) and I, while I kinda knew what they had to be, I had to look them up to find the words.

Oddly, I can't remember the ones I was taught, many years ago, either.
Must be getting old.

BTW: "I am Legend" is on. How ironic.

by Drinkthekoolaid Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:57 am

Another confirmed case in the US

https://news.yahoo.com/california-confirms-third-case-china-virus-us-090143669.html

by rick1 Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:11 am

I'm glad I live in a rural area and nowhere near a highly populated area. Not saying it won't, at some time, end up in my area, there's a higher chance of it spreading in the cities than here.

by rick1 Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:26 am

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:Another confirmed case in the US

https://news.yahoo.com/california-confirms-third-case-china-virus-us-090143669.html

Just think if it would hit the homeless areas of Kilifornia, man what a mess that would be.

by **ReadyMom** Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:54 am

Interesting Post at FluTrackers:

Hat Tip to 'Ronan Kelly ', FluTrackers:

I know that it's early on and the data set is small but....

Some perspective on the novel coronavirus. It killed 15, mostly older people, in China yesterday. In contrast, Pneumonia killed around 400, mostly older people in the US yesterday. The thing is, the fatality curve is currently exponential, doubling every 2-3 days. If that rate of increase continues, it could exceed 400/ deaths a day by February 9 and double every 2-3 days after that. The unknowns right now are how long the outbreak is going to match the exponential curve and where it is going to top out.

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion Fetch?id=824840&d=1580041616

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion Fetch?id=824841&d=1580041616

by **ReadyMom** Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:34 pm

Number of China coronavirus virus cases rises to 1,975. Why that number is statistically impossible
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/china-number-of-coronavirus-virus-cases-rises-to-1975-20200126

Here is why I think that's wrong

China has now confirmed 56 deaths and 1,975.

For reference to total number of global SARS cases were 8089 and it cut around 1 percentage point from Chinese GDP. That pandemic also moved much more slowly. To me, this will undoubtedly be worse.

In any case, this is about the official number. It's now progressed like this:

Jan 17: 41
Jan 19: 62
Jan 20: 201
Jan 21: 291
Jan 22: 440
Jan 24: 830
Jan 25: 1,287
Jan 26: 1,975

Those numbers are terrifying but I'm about to scare you much more. Here's why the latest number is statistically impossible, and almost certainly far too low. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:41 pm

Hat Tip to 'kiwibird', FluTrackers:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3047709/genetic-and-drug-trail-contain-deadly-coronavirus-china

Total
2506
cases

80
deaths

.... (and also discuss the antivirals being trialed)

The National Health Commission said that
a combination of antiretroviral drugs used to treat HIV – lopinavir and ritonavir – had been given to some patients
infected with the Wuhan coronavirus at three of the capital’s hospitals......

by **ReadyMom** Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:14 pm

Hat Tip to 'sharon sanders', FluTrackers: ,

CDC - 2019-nCov - How it Spreads

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

Today, 09:43 PM
How it Spreads

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can infect people and then spread between people such as with MERS and SARS. Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak of respiratory illness caused by 2019-nCov in Wuhan, China had some link to a large seafood and live animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, indicating person-to-person spread is occurring.

At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people. Chinese officials report that sustained person-to-person spread in the community is occurring in China. Person-to-person spread in the United States has not yet been detected, but it’s likely to occur to some extent. Cases in healthcare settings, like hospitals, may also occur.

When person-to-person spread has occurred with MERS and SARS, it is thought to have happened mainly via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory pathogens spread. Spread of SARS and MERS between people has generally occurred between close contacts.

It’s important to note that how easily a virus spreads person-to-person can vary. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s important to know this in order to better understand the risk associated with this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time.

There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with 2019-nCoV and investigations are ongoing. The latest situation summary updates are available on CDC’s web page 2019 Novel Coronavirus, Wuhan, China.

Page last reviewed: January 26, 2020

Content source: National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Division of Viral Diseases

by **ReadyMom** Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:11 am

China says 30,453 people are under medical observation and at risk of coronavirus
That's the number of close contacts
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/china-says-30453-are-under-medical-observation-and-at-risk-coronavirus-20200127

Today's data:

769 new confirmed cases (total 2,744)
137 severe cases
24 new deaths
461 cases of severe cases
30 provinces affected
5794 suspected cases
32,799 close contacts have been traced
583 people have been released from medical observation
30,453 people are currently receiving medical observation

(CONTINUED at Link, above) ...

by **ReadyMom** Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:14 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

New coronavirus may be much more contagious than initially thought
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2231453-new-coronavirus-may-be-much-more-contagious-than-initially-thought/#ixzz6CFAsrgkD

SNIPS:

... A deadly new coronavirus has now reached at least 13 countries. As of Monday 27 January, there are 2794 confirmed cases of the virus, while tens of thousands of people are being kept under medical supervision around the world. Eighty-one people have died with the virus, according to latest reports.

... Using data collected up to 18 January, it appears that, on average, each person infected with the virus passes it to between 1.5 and 3.5 other people,

... Using similar estimates, Robin Thompson at the University of Oxford predicts there is a one-in-three chance that a person who brings the virus to the UK will pass it on to others in the country.

... some researchers suggest that it could spread more quickly than estimated. One study, based on data collected between 10 and 21 January, estimates that each person with the virus can pass it to between 3 and 5 other people. The work, by Shi Zhao at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and his colleagues suggests that the virus is much more contagious than originally thought.
Thompson’s estimate was calculated based on the assumption that the virus isn’t contagious until symptoms show – and this no longer seems to be the case. “If the virus is able to spread before symptoms show, that could certainly explain why the virus is spreading quicker that SARS,”

... The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) cautions that, although only five cases have been reported in the US so far, person-to-person spread of the virus in the country is “likely to occur to some extent”.

by **ReadyMom** Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:37 am

Hat Tip to Avian Flu Diary:

ECDC (Updated) Rapid Risk Assessment On Novel Coronavirus - Jan 26th
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/01/ecdc-updated-rapid-risk-assessment-on.html

With every passing day there is a growing realization that the window of opportunity for containing the novel coronavirus outbreak in China may be closing - and that we may soon be dealing with a global public health crisis - not just a regional one.

How severe, and how widespread its impact might be remains unknowable, due to the limited data we have. But as Dr. Nancy Messonnier, Director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said at the end of yesterday's CDC news conference:

"We need to be preparing as if this is a pandemic, but I continue to hope it is not."

This isn't hyperbole, or pessimism. This is simply the only practical approach available to us.

by TRex2 Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:33 pm

ReadyMom wrote: Hat Tip to Avian Flu Diary:

ECDC (Updated) Rapid Risk Assessment On Novel Coronavirus - Jan 26th
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/01/ecdc-updated-rapid-risk-assessment-on.html

With every passing day there is a growing realization that the window of opportunity for containing the novel coronavirus outbreak in China may be closing - and that we may soon be dealing with a global public health crisis - not just a regional one.

How severe, and how widespread its impact might be remains unknowable, due to the limited data we have. But as Dr. Nancy Messonnier, Director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said at the end of yesterday's CDC news conference:

"We need to be preparing as if this is a pandemic, but I continue to hope it is not."

This isn't hyperbole, or pessimism. This is simply the only practical approach available to us.

As usual, he nails it.

by **ReadyMom** Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:19 pm

I was wondering about this, myself. With flu, #'s usually go down, as it gets warmer.

Hat Tip to 'JJackson', FluTrackers:

Originally posted by gsgs View Post
will it go down in summer ? As flu.
The CDC has a page on seasonal coronavirus and it clearly goes down in summer. OTOH, MERS cases were also in summer
I have seen nothing on seasonality and it is obviously to early to say anything about nCoV in humans, if there is a hint - if not an answer - to your question I would be looking for any research on seasonality in the SL CoV host population but I have not seen anything to indicate anyone has looked at this.

by **ReadyMom** Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:43 pm

VIDEO: Discussion of RO, Containment, timing of peak virus... all English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwXMPsbxFfo&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3P2QYnaxwPbPea-eppO6KpX5RHGkSR2b0-VBqyfk91LlIzv9AgKTQgWVo

Dr Gabriel Leung Dean of Medicine dire projection

•Jan 27, 2020

by **ReadyMom** Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:01 pm

I transcribed a bit from above video because I thought it was important:

The forecast is
#1: Big question-We now have a major population or city wide or cluster of city-wide or megalopolis wide quarantine of population movement (as we have seen as of Jan 23 & 24th, starting from Wuhan and then extending to several of the neighboring cities in and around Wuhan.

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion Screen68

Now what we did was to do 2 scenarios :

The upper panel shows that if there had NOT been such a population quarantine and the lower panels shows that there is such a population quarantine . As you can see, they are ALMOST IDENTICAL! Which suggests that this population quarantine may NOT be able to substantially change the course of this epidemic in the other major city clusters. It is not to say it is ineffective, but it may not be able to change in a substantial way the epidemic curves would develop or is expected to develop in these other major Chinese city clusters, as listed.

As you can see, this is a rather complicated slide … (he starts to talk about the effect of travel from Wuhan & other significant communities) …

… The timing of the peak is somewhere around April-May …

by **ReadyMom** Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:06 pm

Ugh ... this is NOT sounding good. Look at the 2nd point about 'seeding' (You have to listen/watch video to get the whole explanation)

This is a clip from their powerpoint about forecast concerns:

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion Screen69

They are stating that we should be prepared for a good possibility that this will become a global epidemic. (They haven't used the 'P' word!)

by Dave58 Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:32 pm

ReadyMom wrote:Ugh ... this is NOT sounding good. Look at the 2nd point about 'seeding' (You have to listen/watch video to get the whole explanation)

This is a clip from their powerpoint about forecast concerns:

They are stating that we should be prepared for a good possibility that this will become a global epidemic. (They haven't used the 'P' word!)

Pretty good video .. They really danced all around the P word without touching it...

This still reminds me of The Stand

by **ReadyMom** Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:30 pm

Well ... I will tell you that someone that I hold in high regard for anything preparedness has said that they are getting ready to 'pull the trigger', in the next week. They are looking to beef up supplies to the 6 mo level, for this event. Not one to jump the gun they usually keep me grounded. So, their response is a concern to me.

by **ReadyMom** Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:52 pm

Another good video from Peak Prosperity:

The Calm Before The Storm - Coronavirus Cases Set To Explode Higher
WATCH UPDATE #5 HERE: https://youtu.be/CMXcMtqH8ak

The sudden lack of new information coming out of China has Chris spooked.

Spread & CFR, R0-Details & Discussion Screen71

He walks us through the math here, showing how if the coronavirus follows its current geometric growth, over 100 million people could be infected by the end of February.

Don't take today's lack of 'news' as meaning the threat from this virus is dying down. This is very likely just the calm before the storm.

Get Chris's free report on how the coronavirus is going to cause a painful downdraft in the stock market here: https://www.peakprosperity.com/blacks... then watch Chris' previous update #5

by **ReadyMom** Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:54 pm

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Scientists warn nCoV more infectious than SARS, but experts have doubts
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/scientists-warn-ncov-more-infectious-sars-experts-have-doubts

(SNIP) ... The R0 is another way of saying how infectious a disease is, as it offers an average of how many people a single person can infect with a virus.

(SNIP) ... The scientists, from the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Automation and the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, both in in Beijing, calculated an R0 of 4.08 for the current outbreak, meaning a person infected with 2019-nCoV could infect more than four susceptible people.

This figure is higher than the World Health Organization's estimate of 1.4 to 2.5 and a recent model that showed an R0 between 3.6 and 4. ---CONTINUED---

by Drinkthekoolaid Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:03 pm

WHO just declared it a world health emergency

by **ReadyMom** Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:22 pm

WHO UPDATE:
https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

Representatives of the Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China reported on the current situation and the public health measures being taken. There are now 7711 confirmed and 12167 suspected cases throughout the country. Of the confirmed cases, 1370 are severe and 170 people have died. 124 people have recovered and been discharged from hospital.

The WHO Secretariat provided an overview of the situation in other countries. There are now 82 cases in 18 countries. Of these, only 7 had no history of travel in China. There has been human-to-human transmission in 3 countries outside China. One of these cases is severe and there have been no deaths.

by **ReadyMom** Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:57 pm

Yesterday, CIDRAP posted this (posted, above):

ReadyMom wrote: Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Scientists warn nCoV more infectious than SARS, but experts have doubts
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/scientists-warn-ncov-more-infectious-sars-experts-have-doubts

And now, CIDRAP posts this:

HatTip2

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Data suggest nCoV more infectious than 1918 flu, but what does that mean?
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/data-suggest-ncov-more-infectious-1918-flu-what-does-mean

(SNIP) ... Each patient could infect 2+ more

Based on calculations, the authors of the larger study estimate the novel coronavirus has an R0 of 2.2, meaning each case patient could infect more than 2 other people. If accurate, this makes the 2019 nCoV more infectious than the 1918 influenza pandemic virus, which had an R0 of 1.80 (interquartile range: 1.47 to 2.27). ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:59 pm

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

How well new China virus spreads is focus of control efforts
https://chinapost.nownews.com/20200131-944692

Scientists are starting to fill in some key gaps in what’s known about the new virus from China. New research suggests it spreads a little easier than regular flu but not as well as some other respiratory diseases like whooping cough or tuberculosis. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:01 am

From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 31 January 14:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 31 January 2020, 9 836 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 17 healthcare workers and 213 deaths.

Cases have been reported in the following continents:
Asia: China (9 723), Thailand (14), Japan (14), Singapore (13), Taiwan (9), Malaysia ( Cool

, Republic of Korea (7), United Arab Emirates (4), Vietnam (5), Cambodia (1), Nepal (1), The Philippines (1), India (1), and Sri Lanka (1).
Europe: France (6), Germany (5), Italy (2), Finland (1) and UK (2).
America: the United States (6) and Canada (3).
Oceania: Australia (9).

All of the 213 deaths reported have been in China, 204 were from Hubei province, two from Henan province, one from Beijing, one from Hainan province, two from Heilongjiang province, one from Hebei province, one from Shanghai, and one from Sichuan province.

Continent Country / Territory / Area Confirmed cases Deaths
America United States of America 6 0
America Canada 3 0
Asia China 9723 213
Asia India 1 0
Asia Japan 14 0
Asia Republic of Korea 7 0
Asia Taiwan 9 0
Asia Thailand 14 0
Asia Singapore 13 0
Asia Vietnam 5 0
Asia Nepal 1 0
Asia Malaysia 8 0
Asia Philippines 1 0
Asia Sri Lanka 1 0
Asia Cambodia 1 0
Asia United Arab Emirates 4 0
Europe France 6 0
Europe Germany 5 0
Europe Finland 1 0
Europe Italy 2 0
Europe United Kingdom 2 0
Oceania Australia 9 0
_____________________________________________________________
TOTAL 9836 213

by rick1 Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:23 am

Thanks ReadyMom and all in just 30 days.

And there are still airline flights to and from China, from various countries, this includes the U.S., according to FOX news.

by **ReadyMom** Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:14 pm

ReadyMom wrote:From European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control :

Situation update 31 January 14:00 CET
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Since 31 December 2019 and as of 31 January 2020, 9 836 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 17 healthcare workers and 213 deaths.

Cases have been reported in the following continents:
Asia: China (9 723), Thailand (14), Japan (14), Singapore (13), Taiwan (9), Malaysia (,

Still going up:

Hat Tip to 'Shiloh', FluTrackers:

A total of 9811 cases of new coronavirus pneumonia diagnosed nationwide
https://finance.jrj.com.cn/2020/02/01001328746070.shtml

2020-02-01 00:13:31 Source: Financial website How to determine what to buy on Saturday?

As of 22:41 on January 31, a total of 9811 cases of new coronavirus pneumonia were confirmed, 213 died, 214 cases were cured, and a total of 15,238 suspected cases.

消息 Beijing time on February 1, according to the Global Times, as of 22:41 on January 31, a total of 9811 cases of new coronavirus pneumonia were diagnosed, 213 died, and 214 were cured, with a total of 15,238 suspected cases.

by **ReadyMom** Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:25 pm

So ... it this something NEW with this virus? 'Health incubating' people & recovering patients may still be spreading virus? Not good, if true.

Hat Tip to FluWiki, Facebook:

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

(SNIP) ... Since its identification in late December 2019, the number of cases from China that have been imported into other countries is on the rise, and the epidemiologic picture is changing on a daily basis.

(SNIP) ... it is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.3

(SNIP) ... the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery.

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:59 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

What Is a Super Spreader? An Infectious Disease Expert Explains
https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2020/02/01/what_is_a_super_spreader_an_infectious_disease_expert_explains_111277.html

As the emerging Wuhan coronavirus outbreak dominates the daily news, you might be wondering just how the pathogen is working its way around the world. This virus travels from place to place by infecting one person at a time. Some sick people might not spread the virus much further, but it looks like some people infected with the novel coronavirus are what epidemiologists call “super spreaders.”

Elizabeth McGraw, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University, explains just what that means and why super spreaders can be crucial to a disease’s transmission. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:00 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Q&A: How the Coronavirus Differs from the Flu and SARS
https://www.voanews.com/science-health/qa-how-coronavirus-differs-flu-and-sars

VOA spoke to Andy Pekosz, a professor of molecular microbiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, about the coronavirus. His laboratory studies influenza and other respiratory viruses such as SARS, and hantaviruses.

Q: “If you look at this virus compared to the flu, you know, how do they compare with the risk of transmission, like infection rate, death rate, that kind of thing?” ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:03 am

Hat Tip to John West's Daily Big Threat Blog:

Wuhan Coronavirus 'Super-Spreaders' Could Be Wildcards
https://www.wired.com/story/wuhan-coronavirus-super-spreaders-could-be-wildcards/

Stopping the spread of a rapidly emerging disease takes masterful medical detective work, including tracing the people who have been infected and figuring out their web of contacts, steps that are vital to understanding how it’s being transmitted.

(SNIP) ... Yet there’s a potential wildcard, a deviation that throws off the most careful calculations. For reasons that are still unclear, some people, known as super-spreaders, transmit disease much more readily than others, and to many more people. Like an infectious grenade, they can set off a sudden cluster of illnesses. ---CONTINUED---

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