The Next Possible Pandemic

rick1 wrote:Forget about coronavirus, bubonic plague health alert in China:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/bubonic-plague-triggers-health-alert-in-china-after-herder-is-infected/2020/07/07/bfb8f874-c004-11ea-8908-68a2b9eae9e0_story.html

Dave58 wrote:Here we go again   Maybe
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/mysterious-pneumonia-more-deadly-coronavirus-22332846

Six days ago, in Russia's Worsening HPAI H5 Outbreak (in Poultry), we looked at a recent uptick in reported HPAI (highly pathogenic avian influenza) outbreaks in central Russia (in wild birds and in poultry), which appears to have started in late July or early August.  

Once considered controversial, today there is little doubt that HPAI viruses are spread over long distances by migratory birds (see WHO: Migratory Birds & The Potential Spread Of Avian Influenza).

The major migratory bird flyways (shown below) - along with scores of minor pathways not depicted - serve as a global interstate highway for avian influenza viruses. While primarily north-south conduits, there is enough overlap to allow for east-west movement as well.

ReadyMom wrote:I just can't 'do' another pandemic. I'm done. I'm spent. I'm over it.

ReadyMom wrote:I just can't 'do' another pandemic. I'm done. I'm spent. I'm over it.

While not necessarily a harbinger of what is to come, late last week the CDC released a HAN notice on increased interseasonal Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity in parts of the Southern United States.

RSV is the most common cause of bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children under one year of age in the United States. Infants, young children, and older adults with chronic medical conditions are at risk of severe disease from RSV infection. Each year in the United States, RSV leads to on average approximately 58,000 hospitalizations with 100-500 deaths among children younger than 5 years old and 177,000 hospitalizations with 14,000 deaths among adults aged 65 years or older.

Dave58 wrote:It seems Australia has started to go all Mad Max on people..

The next pandemic might not be caused by Covid or its variants. It may be the crazy people running the governments

https://www.the-sun.com/news/3388310/australia-deploys-military-to-enforce-covid-rules/

Dave58 wrote:Well it seems that our county has went red again ..Wife told me that Wal-Mart was handing out masks if people wanted them

Dave58 wrote:Well it seems that our county has went red again ..Wife told me that Wal-Mart was handing out masks if people wanted them

rick1 wrote:Yep, I posted in another thread that NYC is now requiring proof of the covid vaccine to go into a food eatery, gym, etc..
Nothing more then a Dictatorship.

rick1 wrote:I was at walmart this afternoon, mask required.

There was a young fellow outside selling masks, .25 each, he was also selling moderna vaccine cards!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wonder how long before he gets caught and how many have already been sold, not only by him, but by thousands of others, especially in the cities.

Cinnamon wrote:No masks for customers in the town we shop in, and about half the Walmart employees weren't wearing one, either.

Only place in town REQUIRED to mask is the hospital and clinics. And they're giving out the cheap paper masks...I'm pretty sure they all know it isn't effective, they're just complying with whatever mandate in place.

Interesting that in the middle of this lockdown that hospitals are firing nurses and doctors for not taking the shot...and yet they claim there's a critical shortage of nurses and doctors. Hmmmm...

Dave58 wrote:https://youtu.be/i7Kf2Qe6Vfc

Just watched this,  as if we don't have any better to do

rick1 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:https://youtu.be/i7Kf2Qe6Vfc

Just watched this,  as if we don't have any better to do

There was an update to this, it wasn't the virus itself, but the virus to make the vaccine (make sense now, beats me:

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/smallpox-vials-found-at-merck-lab-in-suburban-philadelphia-facility/3050775/

rick1 wrote:
There was an update to this, it wasn't the virus itself, but the virus to make the vaccine (make sense now, beats me:

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/smallpox-vials-found-at-merck-lab-in-suburban-philadelphia-facility/3050775/

Yesterday Shiloh at FluTrackers (followed by others), began translating and posting multiple reports of a deadly respiratory outbreak in Cametá, in the state of Para, Brazil. Various reports suggest between 6 and 10 people have died after presenting with flu-like symptoms, pneumonia, and `hemorrhage'.

While the first two symptoms are what one might expect from seasonal influenza, COVID, or both - the hemorrhagic component is less common.

Brazil does report occasional outbreaks of viral hemorrhagic fevers, including yellow fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever, arenavirus haemorrhagic fever and hantavirus which are all possibilities.

Brazil is currently in the midst of a seasonal H3N2 outbreak, and is reporting a recent uptick in COVID cases, although a recent hacking of their Ministry of Health's computer system has impacted recent reporting of outbreaks.

While we are intently watching HPAI H5, we could easily be blindsided by something else; MERS-CoV, a new animal-origin coronavirus, Nipah, any of the (nearly 2 dozen) novel flu viruses on the CDC's IRAT List, or even by something completely new.

Granted, we might go years, or even decades,
before the next severe pandemic arrives - but
it could just as easily emerge tomorrow.

Despite all of this our global disease surveillance and reporting network continues to erode (see Flying Blind In The Viral Storm), and governments, businesses and individuals do very little to prepare for the next one.
(Flying Blind:
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2022/12/flying-blind-in-viral-storm.html )

Sixteen years ago, in a blog called  `Quotable Quotes', I listed more than a dozen pandemic warnings from world leaders, scientists, and public Health and Safety officials.  After 3 years of COVID, none ring truer today than:

Everything you say in advance of a pandemic
seems alarmist. Anything you’ve done
after it starts is inadequate.
 
- Michael Leavitt, Secretary of HHS

Dave58 wrote:The best we can hope for is Biden doesn't make it back from Kiev

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/who-pandemic-biden/2023/02/20/id/1109356/#.Y_PvT9NAp_I.link

The best we can hope for is Xi-Branden doesn't make it back from ...

While there have been only a handful of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 infections reported in humans over the past 18 months, the real number of spillover events is unknown. The good news, however, is we've seen no signs of sustained of efficient community spread.

But the obvious question is, how long would it take for us to recognize community spread if it were occurring?

That obviously depends on where an outbreak occurs, its severity, and how fast it is spreading (R-Value). It would presumably be easier to detect in places London, or Tokyo, or New York City than in Outer Mongolia, or Ethiopia.

But according to yesterday's UKHSA Technical Briefing #3 on H5N1, even in a developed country like the UK, it might take weeks.

Yesterday we looked at the UK's three working `pandemic scenarios', but today we'll look at an analysis of the UK's ability to detect community transmission of a novel flu virus. As you'll see, the Expected time to detection (TTD) and the cumulative number of infections (CI) before we'd know there was community spread are sobering.

TRex2 wrote:...
We have to face some new facts of the 2020's decade:  
The government is no longer able to deal with this, and the public is not interested in dealing with this.

It will be up to us and our tribes to keep ourselves, our families, and our tribes safe.

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/05/ecdc-guidance-lessons-from-covid-19.html
The avian flu threat began to retreat, and instead we were hit by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, which was the mildest of the 3 pandemics following 1918 (2009, 1968 and 1957). It ended in 2010, with many convinced that severe pandemics were a thing of the past, and planning was a waste of time and resources.

Over the next decade, despite repeated warnings (see World Bank: World Ill-Prepared For A Pandemic), and dismal report cards on the world's readiness for another pandemic (see WHO: Survey Of Pandemic Preparedness In Member States), there was more talk about preparedness than actual action.

Pandemic drills and simulations (other than a few tabletop exercises) became rare. Pandemic plans gathered dust, and were rarely updated. Our Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) was inadequately replenished after the 2009 pandemic, and little real thought was given to a non-influenza threat.

As a result we entered the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic wholly unprepared for a fast moving, moderately severe pandemic. HCWs (and the public) lacked proper PPEs, ventilators were in short supply, hospitals were overwhelmed, governmental and public health messaging was a mess, and as predicted by Osterholm, the world went into an extended economic (and supply chain) deep freeze.

rick1 wrote:Dave/TRex, you guy's are so right. President Regan said it when he said the MOST TERRIFYING nine words you could ever hear, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help"

https://professorbuzzkill.com/reagan-terrifying-words/

While there are hopeful signs that our current COVID crisis may be waning, we inhabit a far different world today than we did 4 years ago.

Today, variants of [COVID] now circulate - ... - in dozens of species

Not only is there the very real potential for a spillback of a mutated COVID virus from another species into humans, some scientists worry that a recombinant [multistrain CoronaVirus] might someday emerge

For the past 500 years (probably longer) influenza viruses have been our primary pandemic concern.

Today a growing array of coronaviruses provide influenza A with some serious competition. All of which means that pandemics are likely to become more frequent going forward, and we need to be actively preparing for whatever comes next.

Today a growing array of coronaviruses provide influenza A with some serious competition. All of which means that pandemics are likely to become more frequent going forward, and we need to be actively preparing for whatever comes next.

The avian flu situation has changed markedly in the 7 months since we first looked at a [technical paper], which described the detection of multiple new genotypes of H5N1 - some with increased virulence - which evolved after the H5N1 virus crossed the Atlantic Ocean and arrived in Canada in late 2021.

[A lot of scary stuff in this article, about recent changes to the flu virus in the past couple of years.]

Not surprisingly, H5's evolutionary rate has increased as the number and variety of H5 viruses in circulation has grown. Exactly where this uncontrolled global field experiment will lead remains to be seen, but additional changes to the virus are inevitable.

We need to be prepared for surprises ahead. And time is not our friend.

Sadly, between incessant and highly misleading vaccine information on social media - and inevitable pandemic fatigue after 4 frustrating years of COVID - it is getting harder to convince the public to roll up their sleeves for seasonal and routine vaccinations.

Years before Covid, the scientist credited with eradicating smallpox warned against shutting down the world to combat an epidemic.

In 2006, ten years before his death at the age of 87, the legendary epidemiologist D.A. Henderson laid out a plan for how public health officials should respond to a major influenza pandemic. It was published in a small journal that focused mainly on bioterrorism—and was quickly forgotten.

As it turns out, that paper, titled “Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza,” was Henderson’s prescient bequest to the future. If we had followed his advice, our country—indeed, our world—could have avoided its disastrous response to Covid.

This month marks the four-year anniversary of lockdowns on a global scale. And though the pandemic has passed, its consequences live on.

Anything you do, before a pandemic, is alarmist.
Whatever you do, once it has started, is never enough.