World War 3-Are We Creeping Closer?

-sigh- I don't like this thread. But we need it.

to John West-World Wide Threats for the follow :

What’s the Likelihood of Nuclear War?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/whats-the-likelihood-of-nuclear-war/ar-AAVoVg2?ocid=iehp&li=BBnbfcL

Of the six historians I consulted, four said the present moment was less dangerous than the Cold War’s most hazardous moments; one said it was equally dangerous, just in different ways; and one said it was more dangerous.

I think there is a far greater likelihood that we will take a hit on our power grid..

If they kill the grid it will send us back to a hard and dark time. The death toll will be huge. It would demoralize the US and we would no longer be a threat...

Just my thoughts

Yes.

IMO if there is not a very near future peace agreement or cease fire we are probably looking at ww3 being more likely than not.

Too many scenarios will get us caught in escalation feedback loops.

The more I think about this, the more I think it's going to lead to WW3.


IMO the only possible scenario that DOES NOT lead to WW3 is if there is a near immediate peace agreement or cease fire and I think that unlikely. The evil globalists and neo cons simply do not want it to stop. I think they are not so subtly trying to get dragged into this mess.

As an example, I saw a story that Poland was considering sending in "peacekeepers" into western Ukraine.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/22/a-secret-plan-to-deploy-nato-peacekeepers-to-ukraine-is-brewing-in-poland/

Guys if it's not peacekeepers, then it's a no fly zone or something else. It's going to keep escalating and dragging more countries into this debacle.

When you hear of any of the following it's time to pucker up;
NATO peacekeepers
NATO enforced no fly zone
NATO supply convoys to Ukraine being attacked
Any use of chemical/nerve/nuclear weapons. It won't very much matter who does it because there is so much disinformation already it's going to be an epic cluster mess.


This isn't going to stop it's going to continue slowly escalating until one country feels too threatened and decides to try to decisively strike first and nukes start to drop.

While I basically agree with everything that has been said, in this thread, it has been a few months, and things have changed. Somewhat. Not better or worse, just different.

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:Yes.

IMO if there is not a very near future peace agreement or cease fire we are probably looking at ww3 being more likely than not.
...
IMO the only possible scenario that DOES NOT lead to WW3 is if there is a near immediate peace agreement or cease fire and I think that unlikely. The evil globalists and neo cons simply do not want it to stop. I think they are not so subtly trying to get dragged into this mess.
...

I have to question here, peace agreement between who? Pres.Z. doesn't have any good reason to quit while we are backing him and the Russians still occupy a big chunk of Ukraine. Putin doesn't have any reason to quit, without restoring Russia (not USSR, the difference is significant) to its former (pre 1914) borders.

Now, we have a new player in the mix. Iran has fuel to build Nukes. Today. In a few weeks (or possibly a few months), they will actually have a couple nuclear weapons. Probably nothing that can be put on the tip of a missile, but it could be carried by a jet plane.

Nancy just kicked the hornet's nest, over in Taiwan, but I don't think China wants a shooting war with their biggest customer (and cash cow, not to mention the source of most of their tech engineering).

...
This isn't going to stop it's going to continue slowly escalating until one country feels too threatened and decides to try to decisively strike first and nukes start to drop.

Now that Iran is beginning the last phase of building their nuclear bombs, I think we need to be getting ready, in case the nukes begin to drop.

Trex, while I agree it's bad that Iran is way too close to nukes, I don't see that starting WW3. I fully expect that Israel will know when Iran has crossed whatever red line that the Israeli analysts have set and that they will deal with Iran. Most likely will turn into a cluster bleep in the Middle East, but I don't see US, Russia or China getting drawn in, thus keeping it a "local" conflict....

Only potential for a wider conflict is if India and Pakistan get drawn in, then China might have something to say. But I hope that Israel will keep any damage contained to Iran and that Pakistan decides to stay out of it even though Iran and Pakistan have good relations these days. Just hoping not good enough to wade into a nuclear conflict!  

Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I'm as prepped as I can be without going full fallout shelter....so will hope for the best and be ready for energy prices to spike again if the ball goes up in the Middle East.

dmwalsh568 wrote:Trex, while I agree it's bad that Iran is way too close to nukes, I don't see that starting WW3. I fully expect that Israel will know when Iran has crossed whatever red line that the Israeli analysts have set and that they will deal with Iran. Most likely will turn into a cluster bleep in the Middle East, but I don't see US, Russia or China getting drawn in, thus keeping it a "local" conflict....

Only potential for a wider conflict is if India and Pakistan get drawn in, then China might have something to say. But I hope that Israel will keep any damage contained to Iran and that Pakistan decides to stay out of it even though Iran and Pakistan have good relations these days. Just hoping not good enough to wade into a nuclear conflict!  

Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I'm as prepped as I can be without going full fallout shelter....so will hope for the best and be ready for energy prices to spike again if the ball goes up in the Middle East.

We are pretty much good to go. Need to get a little bit of firewood in maybe some smaller odds and ends.. Just waiting for the circus to come to town.. :<Cheers1&gt

Little kim is trying to step into the mix

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/world/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0

rick1 wrote:...[re:Ukraine]
If only corn pop and trump would have sent weapons earlier. Even trump did a slow walk.

Now, little fat man is not the only one that may get in the game over Ukraine, China is pee'd off at the U.S. and Iran would do anything to hurt the U.S.

Sounds like corn pop has his hands full, oh, wait, he's hiding in his cave, just like when he ran for office.

Only in this century, could this be considered a slow walk. What took years in the 19th century took months in the 20th. Today, military standoffs can go from tense to shooting, in a few days (even though a small part of the Russian Army was parked on the Ukraine border for a year).

If we had reacted by sending massive quantities of arms, two months before the invasion stared, all of this could have been avoided for a $Billon or $Two.

I think we are almost $40Billion into it, now.

IMO...... I honestly genuinely think we are in ww3 right now but most people just don't realize it.


I say that with conviction and all the while hoping I'm wrong. I will gladly admit I'm over reacting or over thinking this 5 years from now if things are status quo.

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:IMO...... I honestly genuinely think we are in ww3 right now but most people just don't realize it.


I say that with conviction and all the while hoping I'm wrong. I will gladly admit I'm over reacting or over thinking this 5 years from now if things are status quo.

I don't know if we are in it but I do believe we are at the beginning. I don't think WW3 will be fought like wars in our past at least not at first, by that I mean the invasions and the fighting.

I do feel like our economy , morals and religion are being attacked on every side.. I hope I'm wrong , but all they half to do is collapse our grid or the internet Darwin will do the rest.....

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:IMO...... I honestly genuinely think we are in ww3 right now but most people just don't realize it.

Yeah, I find it ironic, people thought the world would end on Dec 20, 2012, but in reality, WW3 started Dec 12, 2020. That was the day the Supreme Court decided they didn't want to hear any cases of election fraud, even though the Constitution makes it clear they were required to hear the case.

I say that with conviction and all the while hoping I'm wrong. I will gladly admit I'm over reacting or over thinking this 5 years from now if things are status quo.

If you think about it, looking back 5 years, or 15 years, you have to think about how we got here. This is definitely not the status quo we thought we would have 5 years ago. In another 5 years, I don't think we will be able to say that we came back to the status quo.

Dave58 wrote:I don't know if we are in it but I do believe we are at the beginning. I don't think WW3 will be fought like wars in our past at least not at first, by that I mean the invasions and the fighting.

I do feel like our economy , morals and religion are being attacked on every side.. I hope I'm wrong , but all they half to do is collapse our grid or the internet Darwin will do the rest.....

It might not even be that dramatic. Death by a thousand cuts. Tear down our ability to self sustain, and eventually the grid goes down, without firing a shot. No fuel for generators, solar systems, batteries and windmills require materials we have to beg China for, electricity gets too expensive for the common person, with no transportation no one drives to work...

Add to that, at today's interest rates, just "servicing" (paying the interest) the national debt is going to cost $1 Trillion per year. Soon the debt will be so large, and interest so high, just paying the interest will consume the federal budget.

This article appeared on the "DEFCON Warning System" website.
https://defconwarningsystem.com/2023/07/06/heres-how-bad-a-nuclear-war-would-actually-be/

It seems to have originated from Time Magazine's staff (maybe).
I plan to watch the video and do further analysis of it.

As I have mentioned before, the "DEFCON Warning Site" site is civilian.

They are professional "watchers" of the nuclear arms race and things related to that. They watch Russia and China (and a few others), and I watch them. I watch them, because they have always provided reliable information. Their DEFCON level doesn't specifically reflect the US government's DEFCON level, although from time to time, they may be the same.

Update EDIT: I did a quick skim over the video, and it appears to be recycled antinuclear propaganda garbage from the 70's. A lot of that has now been debunked and discarded by people who actually study nuclear war.

This may be because they are lacking in new recruits.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/07/13/ordering-the-selected-reserve-and-certain-members-of-the-individual-ready-reserve-of-the-armed-forces-to-active-duty/?utm_source=link

Dave58 wrote:This may be because they are lacking in new recruits.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/07/13/ordering-the-selected-reserve-and-certain-members-of-the-individual-ready-reserve-of-the-armed-forces-to-active-duty/?utm_source=link

Maybe, but I see it as preparing for the Ukrainian war to expand.

With all the uncertainty around the Russian military after the Wagner incident (coup? mutiny? theater of the absurd?) it's unclear what direction things might shift as Ukrainian forces start retaking their territory back. So I think it's just a prudent step so make sure experienced service members are available quickly after any serious change on the ground in and around Ukraine.

But I will also say it's worrisome that the administration/Pentagon are concerned enough about what's happening in Ukraine that they thought this step was necessary.

As if I needed another reason to make sure my preps are kept topped off.

This may not belong here. If this ruffles some feathers I apologize in advance because this is a touchy subject..

I think they are looking at calling back some ready reserve because recruitment is in the tank. I look for Biden to mention the draft in the near future just to test the water . I guess my question / thoughts is what about all the trans folks? Girls are not eligible for the draft but what about all the boys that want to be girls and the girls that want to be boys??

My concern comes from my beautiful granddaughter. She recently has decided that she might be a boy. I really worry that she is not looking at the end game if your a boy you need to register for the draft?

Once again if I offended anybody I apologize. Any thoughts for or against would be welcomed. If this is a bad subject pls delete

Dave58 wrote:This may be because they are lacking in new recruits.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/07/13/ordering-the-selected-reserve-and-certain-members-of-the-individual-ready-reserve-of-the-armed-forces-to-active-duty/?utm_source=link

dmwalsh568 wrote:Maybe, but I see it as preparing for the Ukrainian war to expand.

With all the uncertainty around the Russian military after the Wagner incident (coup? mutiny? theater of the absurd?) it's unclear what direction things might shift as Ukrainian forces start retaking their territory back. So I think it's just a prudent step so make sure experienced service members are available quickly after any serious change on the ground in and around Ukraine.

But I will also say it's worrisome that the administration/Pentagon are concerned enough about what's happening in Ukraine that they thought this step was necessary.

As if I needed another reason to make sure my preps are kept topped off.

I will offer this, for those unfamiliar with the military situation.

The call up of Reserves and the IRR personnel is rare, but not unheard of. It was done at the outset of major operations in 2002 and 2003.

The Whitehouse paper mentioned this was in support of "Atlantic Resolve," an operation that has been ongoing, since the original invasion of Ukraine, in 2014.

The call up isn't unusual, but a call up to support an operation that has been ongoing for several years, seems unusual.

Recruiting has been horribly "in the tank" since the horrible decision to go fully woke in the services, as soon as Biden took office. The situation in Ukraine is uncertain. The mutiny of the Wagner group, and its sudden stand down is out of character for the actors involved.
Russia had already announced the intent, and had already begun, to move nuclear weapons into Belarus, so the possibility that Wagner Group is now in possession of nuclear weapons, while unlikely, cannot be ruled out.

Dave58 wrote:This may not belong here. If this ruffles some feathers I apologize in advance because this is a touchy subject..

I think they are looking at calling back some ready reserve because recruitment is in the tank. I look for Biden to mention the draft in the near future just to test the water . I guess my question / thoughts is what about all the trans folks? Girls are not eligible for the draft but what about all the boys that want to be girls and the girls that want to be boys??

I don't think they will take Transsexuals in progress, but if they have already made the transition: then I can't rule it out, although it is unlikely. The rule of thumb is they don't take those who will need extensive medical support in the first 6 months of service.

My concern comes from my beautiful granddaughter. She recently has decided that she might be a boy.  I really worry that she is not looking at the end game if your a boy you need to register for the draft?

Once again if I offended anybody I apologize.  Any thoughts for or against would be welcomed. If this is a bad subject pls delete

My only thought is that I would be trying to get her psychiatric help, and far far away from those who have been influencing her, as more than 98% of teenagers who "come out" today, are victims of brainwashing. Of course, that is between you and her parents. You have my prayers and sympathy: you have found yourself on a rough and difficult road (I have lost family members to this madness, also).

Is this just a test??

https://www.the-sun.com/news/9246685/nuke-incoming-warning-russia-putin-ww3/

Funny how this comes on the heels of Russia's big test.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/a-federal-emergency-alert-will-be-sent-to-us-phones-nationwide-on-wednesday-here-s-what-it-means/ar-AA1hG2X1?ocid=socialshare&pc=U531&cvid=fe4d5bf5ba28473982f5b9df0edad7a3&ei=9

Another player ready to enter the game

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1829092/Erdogan-Turkey-Israel-war-Gaza

Dave58 wrote:Another player ready to enter the game

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1829092/Erdogan-Turkey-Israel-war-Gaza

Turkey is a former ally who has turned into an enemy, and the US refuses to acknowledge the change in their posture.

I just hope our nukes in Turkey are scuttled or prematurely detonate if Erdogan does something stupid. Last thing we need is for US nukes to be used against Israel.

dmwalsh568 wrote:I just hope our nukes in Turkey are scuttled or prematurely detonate if Erdogan does something stupid. Last thing we need is for US nukes to be used against Israel.

I strongly suspect the triggers have been disabled.

Still could be used as dirty bombs, but I doubt they could get a high level detonation.

https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/116724/vladimir-putin-israel-enemy-russia-netanyahu

Dave58 wrote:

https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/116724/vladimir-putin-israel-enemy-russia-netanyahu

Vladimir Putin turns on Netanyahu as he sees Israel 'as Russia's enemy'
EXCLUSIVE: The Russian president "no longer cares for Netanyahu" as Russia's stance shifts in the Middle East, a former speechwriter has claimed.
By CHARLIE BRADLEY 14:54 ET, Mon, Oct 30, 2023

Beyond just predictable, this was known to most of us: Putin always considered Israel an enemy, despite his pretenses, otherwise.

Everybody just keeps pushing

https://www.the-sun.com/news/9551993/usa-nuclear-submarine-iran-hamas-israel-war/

Dave58 wrote:Everybody just keeps pushing

https://www.the-sun.com/news/9551993/usa-nuclear-submarine-iran-hamas-israel-war/

More firepower would be a good thing, if anyone thought Biden had the intestinal fortitude to use it.

Appearance of weakness invites aggression.

Interesting change in Army Recruiting posture:

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2023/11/08/army-ad-n2630931

The U.S. Army on Monday released a recruitment ad that critics argue is a sure sign the military is gearing up for war.

There are no signs of diversity, equity, and inclusion in the 30-second spot, which features white males jumping out of a plane.
...
“Your greatest victories are never achieved alone,” text in the ad reads. “Be all you can be.”

It comes two years after the Army pushed an animated video series, "The Calling," that checked all the woke boxes.

So, is the Army suddenly ditching wokeness, due to a need for war readiness?

If that is the case, I don't think it will be all that easy to win back the support they lost.

Anyone who reads the paper I wrote on this topic, should realize all of these factors (the border, Iran, Hamas, Ukraine, Russia, China, wokeness) are all part of the same problem.

This link takes you to a page with a big grey square in the middle.
Click on the Title (The New Axis of Evil) in that square and it will open to a page with a table of contents.
https://rexmailer.substack.com/
Go to the end of that table and you will find a button to download the PDF.
It is about 20 pages.
If anyone has any trouble with it, let me know.

Everyone has known for decades, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists isn't to be taken seriously, as it's "Doomsday Clock" is preposterously political, and manipulated by people who hate America.

But, it is best to keep a sense of humor:
https://www.foxnews.com/media/doomsday-clock-faces-mockery-warning-90-seconds-midnight-stupidest-have-ever-seen

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists revealed Tuesday that their Doomsday Clock is now set to 90 seconds to midnight, the closest the group has observed the world to an apocalypse since it began the project in 1947. The group stated the reason for the change was the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February of last year.

...

"This is the stupidest s--t I have ever seen [sic] im guna [sic] make a the doomsday turtle race where we race turtles once a year to see if we move closer to the apocalypse because it has more logic behind it than this that and it will be very cute to watch little turtles running," Tim Pool, a popular independent journalist, tweeted.

TRex2 wrote:Anyone who reads the paper I wrote on this topic, should realize all of these factors (the border, Iran, Hamas, Ukraine, Russia, China, wokeness) are all part of the same problem.

This link takes you to a page with a big grey square in the middle.
Click on the Title (The New Axis of Evil) in that square and it will open to a page with a table of contents.
https://rexmailer.substack.com/
Go to the end of that table and you will find a button to download the PDF.
It is about 20 pages.
If anyone has any trouble with it, let me know.

I didn't mention N.Korea in the post above, but I mentioned it in my Global Assessment of the Axis of Evil.

Gordon Chang has an article on N. Korea:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/will-america-be-war-north-korea-2025-207244

He thinks that by the time the next President gets sworn in, the die may be cast, and if so, we will be going to war. Again, China has pointed to 2027 so, I think it would be a good idea to be ready within a year or two.

The US Department of Defense 2023
Military and Security Developments
Involving the People's Republic of China
Annual Report to Congress

Is available. 212 page Pdf file.
https://defconwarningsystem.com/articles/

Anyone wants to can analyse it.
I am retiring from that stuff.

Should be noted that (from the article that links to the report):

The 2022 National Security Strategy states that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the only competitor to the United States with the intent and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order.

Because I am kinda retiring from the "open source intel analysis" I thought I would remind the community, here, one of my most important sources. For years, I checked this source every Wednesday morning.
https://defconwarningsystem.com/articles/

These guys are true professionals, but even then, they don't always get everything right.
(As you can see below, in the quoted part of this post.)

This is a Q and A, the primary person running the web site is doing a live chat with an engineer and discusses various questions people ask about the site.
https://defconwarningsystem.com/2023/12/29/ask-me-anything-2023/

Generally, the site posts a couple times a week, and usually worth looking at.
A bit of a warning, though, if you listen to him: he is not an engineer (the guy he is talking to is, though), and when he gets to discussing EMP, it goes round and round with little to be gained. Listen to what the other guy, the engineer, says on that subject.

TRex2 wrote:This article appeared on the "DEFCON Warning System" website.
https://defconwarningsystem.com/2023/07/06/heres-how-bad-a-nuclear-war-would-actually-be/

It seems to have originated from Time Magazine's staff (maybe).
I plan to watch the video and do further analysis of it.

As I have mentioned before, the "DEFCON Warning Site" site is civilian.

They are professional "watchers" of the nuclear arms race and things related to that. They watch Russia and China (and a few others), and I watch them. I watch them, because they have always provided reliable information. Their DEFCON level doesn't specifically reflect the US government's DEFCON level, although from time to time, they may be the same.

Update EDIT: I did a quick skim over the video, and it appears to be recycled antinuclear propaganda garbage from the 70's. A lot of that has now been debunked and discarded by people who actually study nuclear war.

TRex2 wrote:Because I am kinda retiring from the "open source intel analysis" I thought I would remind the community, here, one of my most important sources. For years, I checked this source every Wednesday morning.
https://defconwarningsystem.com/articles/

These guys are true professionals, but even then, they don't always get everything right.
(As you can see below, in the quoted part of this post.)

This is a Q and A, the primary person running the web site is doing a live chat with an engineer and discusses various questions people ask about the site.
https://defconwarningsystem.com/2023/12/29/ask-me-anything-2023/

Generally, the site posts a couple times a week, and usually worth looking at.
A bit of a warning, though, if you listen to him: he is not an engineer (the guy he is talking to is, though), and when he gets to discussing EMP, it goes round and round with little to be gained. Listen to what the other guy, the engineer, says on that subject.

TRex2 wrote:This article appeared on the "DEFCON Warning System" website.
https://defconwarningsystem.com/2023/07/06/heres-how-bad-a-nuclear-war-would-actually-be/

It seems to have originated from Time Magazine's staff (maybe).
I plan to watch the video and do further analysis of it.

As I have mentioned before, the "DEFCON Warning Site" site is civilian.

They are professional "watchers" of the nuclear arms race and things related to that. They watch Russia and China (and a few others), and I watch them. I watch them, because they have always provided reliable information. Their DEFCON level doesn't specifically reflect the US government's DEFCON level, although from time to time, they may be the same.

Update EDIT: I did a quick skim over the video, and it appears to be recycled antinuclear propaganda garbage from the 70's. A lot of that has now been debunked and discarded by people who actually study nuclear war.

I get notices from this site at least 1 time per month unless something is going on.. I don't take everything that they say to be the gospel truth but it does alert me to start looking around to see what I can find out.

On a side note my wife and I just binged watched a You Tube channel by a lady named Laurel. While it was fiction it was motivating it was quite disturbing as she hit the nail on the head over and over again.

The video series was called "The Collapse" its worth watching and taking notes..

Stay safe and keep doing the things

Dave58 wrote:...
... my wife and I just binged watched a You Tube channel by a lady named Laurel. While it was fiction it was motivating it was quite disturbing as she hit the nail on the head over and over again.

The video series was called "The Collapse" its worth watching and taking notes..

Stay safe and keep doing the things

I have known Laurel Scott for quite a few years.

She is, by trade, an immigration lawyer (they called her "the queen" of finding ways to keep people in the country), and she was a big Democrat Party asset, until around 2017, when she began to see them and the immigration system for what they really are.

I still remember her posting a video
with the title: "OMG, I'm a Trump supporter!"

Her "Collapse" series comes with my highest recommendations, and there are links to it in the "media" part of this forum.