Supply Chain Observations-2023

( RM's Note: New Year ... New Thread for 2023. )

Went to Wal-Mart this morning. Jumbo eggs $12.00 per dz.

I feel blessed i haven't bought eggs in 8 yrs

rick1 wrote:Farmer predicts worse food shortages, higher prices in 2023 amid inflation, drought and interest rate hikes, thank you corn pop:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/farmer-predicts-worse-food-shortages-higher-prices-2023-amid-inflation-drought-interests-rate-hikes

I agree with this analysis, although I have found that trying to forecast a timeline is more difficult than it seems.

Dave58 wrote:Went to Wal-Mart this morning. Jumbo eggs $12.00 per dz.

I feel blessed i haven't bought eggs in 8 yrs  

Wow. They are 6 or 7 dollars, here, and we think that is terrible. (They were $2.90 when Trump was in office.)

TRex2 wrote:

rick1 wrote:Farmer predicts worse food shortages, higher prices in 2023 amid inflation, drought and interest rate hikes, thank you corn pop:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/farmer-predicts-worse-food-shortages-higher-prices-2023-amid-inflation-drought-interests-rate-hikes

I agree with this analysis, although I have found that trying to forecast a timeline is more difficult than it seems.

Dave58 wrote:Went to Wal-Mart this morning. Jumbo eggs $12.00 per dz.

I feel blessed i haven't bought eggs in 8 yrs  

Wow. They are 6 or 7 dollars, here, and we think that is terrible. (They were $2.90 when Trump was in office.)

Holy KRAP, they,re only $8.99/dozen here for jumbo. Large eggs are $5.95/dozen

I'm like you Dave, ain't bought eggs in 20 years.

I got 2 grandsons that come over after school and they clean up around the coop and feed the chickens.

The deal is, they can take eggs and sell them to whomever they want too and keep the money. They charge $3.00 a dozen, I'm going to tell them to up it to $4.00 a dozen.

Here's an article from a couple of days ago, I see the list of shortages even includes sand and concrete.

Between drought, cold in the south, snow storms, avian flu, trucker shortage, supply chain issues, we might just be in for quit a few shortages and/or heavy price increases:

https://www.yakimaherald.com/news/nation_and_world/business/12-products-to-buy-now-as-2023-supply-chain-shortages-loom/article_e19a614d-2fb7-5876-9d2e-84a17ca1ebf3.html

And lets not forget beef shortages/prices:

https://www.beefmagazine.com/beef/beef-short-supply-2023

Shopping this week:

No formula
No cat or dog food (shelves were empty)
Hams seemed to be in short supply, couldn't find our usual small ones or packages of cubed ham. No Canadian bacon, either.
Some veggies in the produce section were sparse.

I am suspecting bad management. We went to a Walmart in another town and it was fully stocked, even with stuff we can no longer get at our Walmart that I wasn't even looking for. That said, both Walmarts were scarce as far as formula. The baby has enough to get to February, when she is a year old and can switch to regular milk. She's already enjoying food more than formula, so it's not a big deal anymore for her.

Cinnamon wrote:Shopping this week:

No formula
No cat or dog food (shelves were empty)
Hams seemed to be in short supply, couldn't find our usual small ones or packages of cubed ham. No Canadian bacon, either.
Some veggies in the produce section were sparse.

I am suspecting bad management. We went to a Walmart in another town and it was fully stocked, even with stuff we can no longer get at our Walmart that I wasn't even looking for. That said, both Walmarts were scarce as far as formula. The baby has enough to get to February, when she is a  year old and can switch to regular milk. She's already enjoying food more than formula, so it's not a big deal anymore for her.

Went to Wally World and they don't have Kibbles and bits Dog food. Checked online and everything is out of stock. Ok which one of you guys are hoarding the dog food ??

Has anybody noticed the price of Lamp Oil lately..
Its almost $15 per qt here.

Dang - $15 for a quart??? I'm stocked up, but I'll look, if I can find it. It was scarce last year, every time we did find it, there was usually only 1-2 quarts on the shelf.

Interestingly, Husband and I have gone out to lunch/dinner more than usual for medical appointments outside our regular area. Some of the restaurants have notices saying they're out of this or that, due to supply issues.

Cinnamon wrote:Dang - $15 for a quart??? I'm stocked up, but I'll look, if I can find it. It was scarce last year, every time we did find it, there was usually only 1-2 quarts on the shelf.

Interestingly, Husband and I have gone out to lunch/dinner more than usual for medical appointments outside our regular area. Some of the restaurants have notices saying they're out of this or that, due to supply issues.

Just found this didn't really know where to put it..
https://nypost.com/2023/01/09/biden-administration-reportedly-weighing-national-ban-on-gas-stoves/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

Dave58 wrote:

Cinnamon wrote:Dang - $15 for a quart??? I'm stocked up, but I'll look, if I can find it. It was scarce last year, every time we did find it, there was usually only 1-2 quarts on the shelf.

Interestingly, Husband and I have gone out to lunch/dinner more than usual for medical appointments outside our regular area. Some of the restaurants have notices saying they're out of this or that, due to supply issues.

Just found this didn't really know where to put it..
https://nypost.com/2023/01/09/biden-administration-reportedly-weighing-national-ban-on-gas-stoves/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

I expect nothing less from the head clown that has to wear a diaper.

We have a gas stove and I got an old spare one in the barn (all pilot lights).  I won't be giving them up to anybody.

OFF TOPIC - Around here where I live, outdoor furnaces are more common then not. Guys are now protesting joe crow 2.0's new green deal. They're burning old tires to keep warm. If they get caught, they'll pay a hefty fine.

Dave58 wrote:Has anybody noticed the price of Lamp Oil lately..
Its almost $15 per qt here.

Kerosene for indoor use (K1 and Klean Heat) should be $15 a gallon, not per quart, but I just looked and it seems there is a substantial shortage. Oddly, not many people are talking about it.

EGGS

The Coming Chicken Egg Shortage in The U.S. in 2023: How to Prepare
https://raymondmhor.com/2023/01/chicken-egg-shortage-2023/

Many people are aware that there is currently a shortage of chicken eggs in many parts of the world. This shortage has been caused by a number of factors, primarily due to avian flu and the destruction of many egg-laying hens. Other things that have impacted the egg shortage have been the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues on egg production and distribution, and the growing demand for eggs as a source of protein.

TRex2 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:Has anybody noticed the price of Lamp Oil lately..
Its almost $15 per qt here.

Kerosene for indoor use (K1 and Klean Heat) should be $15 a gallon, not per quart, but I just looked and it seems there is a substantial shortage. Oddly, not many people are talking about it.

Walmart has K-1 kerosene for $10.87/gallon, this is the type I use, I got 20 gallon stored:

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Crown-1-K-Kerosene-Clean-Burning-Fuel-1-Gallon/51741742?athbdg=L1101

I thought groping Joe fixed the trains

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chickens-starve-california-farm-corn-181422444.html

Dave58 wrote:I thought groping Joe fixed the trains

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chickens-starve-california-farm-corn-181422444.html

Shortages get people yelling, until they go away, then griping over prices takes hold and the shortages are forgotten.

The problem is multifaceted:
1: Just in time supply system (no warehouses to offer a buffer).
2: No redundancy for supply lines (they don't have extra rail lines going through different regions, or a sea based transportation alternative).
3: Weather related delays were not planned for (planning ahead for reduced capacity in winter).

Those things increase the overall price of the product, but they increase reliability of supply.

As long as price is the ONLY factor that gets continuous attention, month after month, the problem will not be fixed.

Chicken feed problems.

Recently read about problems people were having with their hens laying or not laying. Rumore has it that Purina has changed layer feed so the hens don't lay as many eggs. At first I thought it was because cold and daylight hours affects them. I could have put lights on them and increased production but everything needs a season of rest..

Ok long story short I found a feed store that makes it own layer feed. There is a older Amish gentleman that mixes the feed so I am going to try it and will let you know how it goes.. The man at the store said people were complaining about Tractor Supply Company feed slowing their hens down.

Just for reference we have 38 layers and just get 8 eggs per day ..

Dave58 wrote:Chicken feed problems.

Recently read about problems people were having with their hens laying or not laying. Rumore has it that Purina has changed layer feed so the hens don't lay as many eggs. At first I thought it was because cold and daylight hours affects them. I could have put lights on them and increased production but everything needs a season of rest..

Ok long story short I found a feed store that makes it own layer feed. There is a older Amish gentleman that mixes the feed so I am going to try it and will let you know how it goes.. The man at the store said people were complaining about Tractor Supply Company feed slowing their hens down.

Just for reference we have 38 layers and just get 8 eggs per day ..

Here's a good article on why chickens don't lay eggs.

Dave, I blame several things, cold weather, high winds, lack of light, all due to winter here in PA.

If chickens are stressed by anything, they won't lay every day. A fox running around, a stranger visiting you at home, new pets, not feeding them the same time each day, your dog barking at the chickens, etc..

I think I heard something about the Railroad Strike being averted.

Our neighbor down the street put warming lights and nesting boxes in her chicken house. The chickens free range during the day. She's giving the eggs away, refuses to take money! I stop weekly, and we give her homemade food in exchange for eggs. I'm getting so many eggs I'm freezing some for future use.

Cinnamon wrote:Our neighbor down the street put warming lights and nesting boxes in her chicken house. The chickens free range during the day. She's giving the eggs away, refuses to take money! I stop weekly, and we give her homemade food in exchange for eggs. I'm getting so many eggs I'm freezing some for future use.  

I never put a light on mine, but I did change their feed and now I am getting around 16 eggs a day and my girls don't act like they are starving anymore. I think there is something wrong with TSC feed..

Planted lettuce in the hot box and put sweet taters in the dirt so I could start slips. Spring is coming keep doing the things

Seems our supply of medications are even getting smaller compared to 2022, in fact, congress is now calling it a national security issue:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/worsening-drug-shortages-a-serious-risk-to-national-security-report-says_n_641b2cdae4b0fef15247a59e

Cinnamon wrote:Our neighbor down the street put warming lights and nesting boxes in her chicken house. The chickens free range during the day. She's giving the eggs away, refuses to take money! I stop weekly, and we give her homemade food in exchange for eggs. I'm getting so many eggs I'm freezing some for future use.  

An hour or two of extra light in the evening will keep them laying all winter, but I have heard that it isn't good for the chickens. (Of course, I heard it from a woman who admits that her chickens will die of old age, rather than be dinner.)

rick1 wrote:Seems our supply of medications are even getting smaller compared to 2022, in fact, congress is now calling it a national security issue:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/worsening-drug-shortages-a-serious-risk-to-national-security-report-says_n_641b2cdae4b0fef15247a59e

New drug shortages in the country increased by nearly 30% between 2021 and 2022, according to the report, which was put together by Democrats on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

I agree with everything in the article, but are they actually going to do anything about it?

The Demoncrats have had control of the senate for 5 years, and I don't think the Republicans will resist them, on this issue, if they actually want to SOLVE a problem. (Or even partially solve it.)

Seems the unions are running away from their work, creating ports to shut down in Kilifornia, they're open now, but for how long. Plan ahead folks:

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/port-terminal-close

rick1 wrote:Seems the unions are running away from their work, creating ports to shut down in Kilifornia, they're open now, but for how long.

These port issues always amuse and baffle me, at the same time. Everything about a port operation can be reduced to relatively simple mathematics. (Ships per day, containers on site, trucks and trains per day, etc. Even probability of weather delays.)

Except human nature.
Humans tend to be our own worst enemy.

Plan ahead folks:

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/port-terminal-close

The people in this forum always have the best links. This one is a gold mine.

Yellow freight shutting down, some 30,000 employees affected, I'm sure this will interrupt the supply chain for awhile:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-trucking-giant-yellow-shutting-down-operations-amid-standoff-teamsters-union

rick1 wrote:Yellow freight shutting down, some 30,000 employees affected, I'm sure this will interrupt the supply chain for awhile:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-trucking-giant-yellow-shutting-down-operations-amid-standoff-teamsters-union

It will certainly have an effect.

There are somewhere in the neighborhood of a million trucks on the road, so this will be 3%.
If I recall correctly, the gas shortage of 1974 (the first one) was a shortage of about 4% of our usage, and that had a profound effect.

Slowly closing down the supply chain down

https://youtu.be/qzGlLyICYLA

Dave58 wrote:Slowly closing down the supply chain down

https://youtu.be/qzGlLyICYLA

Have to wonder if some of the silos were empty since they aren't getting the usual Ukrainian and Russian grain shipments. And as folks in the mid-West know, an empty silo just needs an ignition point for the grain dust to explode like a bomb.

https://extension.okstate.edu/fact-sheets/preventing-grain-dust-explosions-2.html

dmwalsh568 wrote:...

Have to wonder if some of the silos were empty since they aren't getting the usual Ukrainian and Russian grain shipments. And as folks in the mid-West know, an empty silo just needs an ignition point for the grain dust to explode like a bomb.
...

That is probably part of the story.
(Reporting that the silo was empty doesn't help sell the story, tho, so don't expect then to say that part, out loud.)

While the US will be OK, unless the world loses another 25MMT of grain, this year, some parts of the world, from India to Algeria, are hurting, because of the problems in Ukraine.

joe crow 2.0 is at it again:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/trucker-warns-catastrophic-biden-epa-restrictions-supply-chain-dead-water

rick1 wrote:joe crow 2.0 is at it again:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/trucker-warns-catastrophic-biden-epa-restrictions-supply-chain-dead-water

Yep, this guy (actually, he is just a front man, a puppet) just keeps getting worse and worse.

Things aren't completely hopeless: there is time to reverse some of the damage. If we can get the Demoncrats out of office, and get the Deep State under control.

Chances are slim, but not zero.

From the link, above:

"These regulations are not practical and almost impossible for five reasons," he continued. "The costs are astronomical. Truckers will not be able to afford these things… These new machines, infrastructure, we're not ready for that. Testing data is slim to none. It's being done right now. Driving range is way less than we currently have, and it's going to have… less payload… and then the worst part is the American people are going to pay for all these new trucks."

And more bad news.
(Maybe this was covered somewhere else, and I didn't see it.)
https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/biden-cancels-trump-era-oil-gas-leases-alaska-victim-administration-governor

The governor of Alaska is accusing the president of violating the law after Biden’s administration pulled the plug on Trump-era oil leases.

"If he's willing to break this law, surely there's going to be others. And once again, Alaska right now feels like a victim under this administration. And the country is going to feel like a victim here if they haven't already," Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy said on "Kudlow" Thursday.

Alaska’s state agency is expected to challenge the decision in court, after Biden canceled several oil and gas leases issued in early 2021 to an Alaskan state economic development agency on Wednesday.

At the end of the day I worry that this might hit us all in the pocket..

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/15/business/auto-workers-strike/index.html

Dave58 wrote:At the end of the day I worry that this might hit us all in the pocket..

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/15/business/auto-workers-strike/index.html

It isn't a worry: it is an absolute.

But, it isn't the strike that will hit us in the pocket, but the reason for the strike: mandates from the government. Fuel mileage, emissions (especially trucks), and electric vehicle mandates.

I know we've moved into 2024, but I've noticed that Yoder's Canned Bacon seems to be out of stock absolutely everywhere. Not sure if that just means peppers are grabbing all available supply or if Yoder's has stopped making it.

Anybody have a source that actually has it in stock? Or any idea when more might be available? With the Middle East heating up and other potential conflict zones around the world I wanted to add to my stockpile....

dmwalsh568 wrote:I know we've moved into 2024, but I've noticed that Yoder's Canned Bacon seems to be out of stock absolutely everywhere. Not sure if that just means peppers are grabbing all available supply or if Yoder's has stopped making it.

Anybody have a source that actually has it in stock? Or any idea when more might be available? With the Middle East heating up and other potential conflict zones around the world I wanted to add to my stockpile....

Here ya go dm, 999 in stock, good luck:

https://drnpj.com/product/yoders-12-can-box-fully-cooked-bacon-9-ounce-each-3/?msclkid=216b4cd328b5137cb49b29697ae7c74f

rick1 wrote:

dmwalsh568 wrote:I know we've moved into 2024, but I've noticed that Yoder's Canned Bacon seems to be out of stock absolutely everywhere. Not sure if that just means peppers are grabbing all available supply or if Yoder's has stopped making it.

Anybody have a source that actually has it in stock? Or any idea when more might be available? With the Middle East heating up and other potential conflict zones around the world I wanted to add to my stockpile....

Here ya go dm, 999 in stock, good luck:

https://drnpj.com/product/yoders-12-can-box-fully-cooked-bacon-9-ounce-each-3/?msclkid=216b4cd328b5137cb49b29697ae7c74f

Has anyone actually bought something from them?

The site claims to be a Bookstore and the price is too good to be believed. Less than $4/can including shipping?

Physical address is in Georgia, but phone number is from Salt Lake City.

And searching on their trade name in google shows a LOT of book stores, although most of the links go to dead sites. The few that do load all have the exact same info at the bottom of the landing page. Makes it look like sample websites or AI generated content. See https://catsr.us for an example.

I appreciate you digging up the link, but as much as I want more bacon, I'm not sure it's worth the risk to my credit card info....

Try this one of these links dm:

https://www.emergencyoutdoors.com/yoders-canned-bacon

https://drnpj.com/product/yoders-12-can-box-fully-cooked-bacon-9-ounce-each-3/?msclkid=4362d4c6556c176ffbb4b17cd383a131

rick1 wrote:Try this one of these links dm:

https://www.emergencyoutdoors.com/yoders-canned-bacon

https://drnpj.com/product/yoders-12-can-box-fully-cooked-bacon-9-ounce-each-3/?msclkid=4362d4c6556c176ffbb4b17cd383a131

Thanks!

First link is much more in line with what I expected to pay per can and the website looks much more realistic.

Climate crisis a threat to our food supply, OH, not the climate itself, it's the fart heads heading it:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cattle-rancher-warns-climate-crisis-threatening-us-food-supply

Better start eating those man made, plant based burgers. Don't worry about the chemicals that they put in them, they are safe to eat.