Supply Chain Observations and Questions

My first observation is, I was told that the chain, on average, has just over 70 days food supply in it. Obviously, some items are going to take longer from the field to the shelf, but I was told that the average was 70 days.

First question would be: how long would the OODR loop be?
That is, when the demand for a certain item rises or falls, dramatically(and that can be regionally or nationally), how long would it take for the supply chain to respond to that.

This is a great question.

I think in part it depends on the commodity/item, how much lead time is required and what the conditions of the country are.

Do you have a more specific example I can put some thought into?

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:This is a great question.
I think in part it depends on the commodity/item, how much lead time is required and what the conditions of the country are.
Do you have a more specific example I can put some thought into?

Well, the question was meant to be generic, and also not generic.

The generic part of it comes from my time in Desert Storm, when we found ourselves running low on certain supplies (Murphy's Law: if you are short of everything except the enemy, you are in a combat zone.) and someone got word back to the "moms and wives club" in Texas. A month later, the Defense Logistics still hadn't fixed the problem, but the moms and wives club had. We suddenly had coffee (we were AF commo, so coffee was a necessary as bullets), baby powder, and other stuff that the official supply system was rationing.

Later, I began having trouble keeping a supply of my favorite chili addative: Snappy Tom.

My attempt at fixing the problem was to buy out half of the store stock
(that usually meant three cans) each time I was in the grocer...
It was simi successful in manipulating the supply chain,
but my experiment came to an end when I moved.

ReadyMom wrote:Related thread: When Trucks Stop, America Stops

Thanks, I had missed that thread.

Thanks to the "Just in Time" delivery system that all the stores have developed more than 2 days without a truck and they are pretty much wiped out....My wife worked at a local grocery and they just don't keep any extra stock everything they have is on the shelf.. Except for a little produce and meat

Dave58 wrote:Thanks to the "Just in Time" delivery system that all the stores have developed more than 2 days without a truck and they are pretty much wiped out....My wife worked at a local grocery and they just don't keep any extra stock everything they have is on the shelf.. Except for a little produce and meat

Yep.

I have read a few different articles about how much they keep, they all agree with you, more or less, about t 2 or 3 days and the store is out. We actually should call it a grocery market, since they don't store anything.

I saw pictures of Atlanta grocer's with barren shelves one year, from panic buying. The following year, they didn't have a blizzard, and no panic, but there were several smaller snowfalls that simply slowed down the deliveries enough to get the same effect in a couple weeks: bare shelves again.

And they call us crazy

While I don't shop Wal-Mart I still go there from time to time just to have a look see. A lot of their shelves are not full and some have the out of stock tags and truth be told it still amazes me to see adults will wearing their PJ's to the store

some have the out of stock tags

Not sure why they would bother with the tags, since this is a temporary thing and I would think that anyone with enough brains to read the tag could also look at the shelf and see it is out of stock.

Are the tags at least generic? I mean, I could understand if they had a tag that said:

Despite being called a "store" we don't
store foods we stock: if you don't see
it on the shelf, we are out of it.

Getting back to the other side of the issue: OODR, and specifically pork products.

I am a geek, so this is a story problem, in four parts,
with a three part answer  

Most observant people (that would be about 17% of the population) know there is a serious pork shortage on the horizon. (My guess is that it will affect SE Asia in a few months, and the US in about a year and a half.) I suspect that about 2.5% of the population is beginning to stock up on pork products, me included.

One of the products I have been buying is 10oz cans of pulled pork, even though they aren't real economical, simply because I like them and think they might be even more expensive in the future. But the future seems to be here. I went to the store and they were out.

I have also begun buying spam, specifically the 25% less sodium product in 12 oz cans. I suspect this will be a popular item among preppers, since a lot of us are in that age group were we have to watch our sodium intake.

Now, if 7 million people double their purchases of low salt spam, how long will it take to clear out the supplies? How long will it take before Hormel reacts to increase production? (And, how long before supply and demand cycle causes a price increase?)

Ok I give up what in the world does  OODR stand for ????  

Just so you don't feel alone I am also one of the low sodium crowd..

As far as clearing out supplies They had a sale on low sodium spam a couple of months ago and it went very fast..
I think Hormel has already started with the price increase..

When things start getting tight you will have the slinky effect it will go slow at first very fast in the middle and then there will be none

My wife and I have been discussing the pork shortage for a while.. We are talking about trying to can some ham since it is on sale right. I don't know how well it would work , but its on sale for .89 lb  

My wife and I watch a gentleman called the Ice Age Farmer on you tube and he was talking about the pork industry and Smithfield Company are already shipping their pig carcuses to China from the US. Its a USA based company , but China owns it

Sorry for dragging this out for so long..

Dave58 wrote:Ok I give up what in the world does  OODR stand for ????

Military expression:
Observe Orient Decide React.
Not sure why they stick "orient" in there, but the rest is sort of self explanatory, and is discussed as a loop, since the next step after "react" is to "observe" the enemy's response and "decide" what your next "reaction" will be, etc.

Just so you don't feel alone I am also one of the low sodium crowd..

As far as clearing out supplies They had a sale on low sodium spam a couple of months ago and it went very fast..
I think Hormel has already started with the price increase..

I still find it here, but at $2.92 a can, that is $3.69 lb.
Of course, that means I don't have to can it, myself.

When things start getting tight you will have the slinky effect it will go slow at first very fast in the middle and then there will be none

My wife and I have been discussing the pork shortage for a while.. We are talking about trying to can some ham since it is on sale right. I don't know how well it would work , but its on sale for .89 lb  

I will have to look back to get a timeline, but AfricanSwineFever was confined, mainly, to China for most of 2018, and now it is all over SouthEast Asia.

My wife and I watch a gentleman called the Ice Age Farmer on you tube and he was talking about the pork industry and Smithfield Company are already shipping their pig carcuses to China from the US. Its a USA based company , but China owns it

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx..

I didn't know China owns Smithfield, but the fact that they are shipping pork to China is still good for the US economy, and means that the shortage will start earlier and grow a little slower.
(And then it will probably do the slinky thing, like you said.)

And don't apologize, it wasn't that long.

I updated the Pig/Swine Virus thread with some timeline info, so that we don't get too much topic drift here.
https://emergencyhomeprep.forumotion.com/t988-pig-swine-virus

Husband has been stocking up on Spam and the Keystone canned meat, both pork and beef for the LTS. Expensive, yes. But we also can our own bacon and other meats (venison and beef).

Based on some of the stuff I posted yesterday (19Dec2019) I wish I had reacted sooner and more aggressively to the situation.

Another place where a change in demand shows that the supply chain isn't too nimble:

A bunch of churches in this area decided to put together a program to send "backpack" lunches home with certain school children, every weekend. Normally, these children would have eaten a hodgepodge of whatever they could get hold of, but the backpacks make at least a couple "square" meals for them. (This type of program is not something I would normally approve of, but I registered my reservations with its leader and support it.)

My church decided we would assure that there was Macaroni and Cheese bowels in each "back pack," and, being a bunch of old codgers, we get the same thing from the same place (WalMart) for them, each week. In late November and December, we upped that demand on supply to insure they were fed for the holidays.

We seem to have run the supply line out, at least in the two nearest WalMarts

I don't know if this belongs here or not ..

My wife and I just left the local farm supply store and prepackaged seed corn was $13.00 a pound..I thought that was kinda high....

TRex2 wrote:Another place where a change in demand shows that the supply chain isn't too nimble:

A bunch of churches in this area decided to put together a program to send "backpack" lunches home with certain school children, every weekend. Normally, these children would have eaten a hodgepodge of whatever they could get hold of, but the backpacks make at least a couple "square" meals for them.  (This type of program is not something I would normally approve of, but I registered my reservations with its leader and support it.)

My church decided we would assure that there was Macaroni and Cheese bowels in each "back pack," and, being a bunch of old codgers, we get the same thing from the same place (WalMart) for them, each week. In late November and December, we upped that demand on supply to insure they were fed for the holidays.

We seem to have run the supply line out, at least in the two nearest WalMarts  

Based on their resupply times, WalMart's resupply chain will react in about six weeks, to a new but sustained increase in local demand. Would probably be slower on a national scale, as we may see, soon.

The on-going saga of Great Value Mac-Cheese in boxes of 8 microwaveable cups. Story begins with my 23 Dec post, about 4 posts above this.

The relevancy here is: in addition to the supply chains being very thin, with only 3 days worth of food on the grocery shelves, and 70-100 days supply in the chain moving from farms to shelves, the system is also not too responsive to changes in demand. A sudden increase, like we should be expecting before any disaster that gives advanced warning (like a pandemic) can strip the shelves bare, and keep them bare for an extended length of time.

Based on their resupply times, WalMart's resupply chain will react in about six weeks, to a new but sustained increase in local demand. Would probably be slower on a national scale, as we may see, soon.

This statement seems to be premature, as they got a couple boxes in, those got sold, and they are out of stock again. So, a sudden increase in demand in my local area has messed up WalMart's logistics for a few weeks.

I'm sure this ties in with the whole co-virus thing..

I went to my favorite Hardware store this morning to check on some n-95 mask that I use in my wood shop and picked up a couple of boxes and I had them check to see if they could order any more and the warehouse is now a out of stock don't know when they will have anymore in...

Just thought I would mention this....

Dave58 wrote:I'm sure this ties in with the whole co-virus thing..

I went to my favorite Hardware store this morning to check on some n-95 mask that I use in my wood shop and picked up a couple of boxes and I had them check to see if they could order any more and the warehouse is now a out of stock don't know when they will have anymore in...

Just thought I would mention this...

The whole world's supply of N95 masks, and to a lesser degree, surgical masks was scarfed up by both, people ordering for their own use, and scalpers looking to make a buck off the panic.

I hadn't thought of the problems that this could cause for people working in other professions, such as wood working.

I don't know how quickly the supply system can recoup. We may have a secondary problem of the people working in the mask making factories either being sick or quarantined, and the factories not being able to produce much.

One of my kids picked some up today - they had a limit of 10 per customer.

Cinnamon wrote:One of my kids picked some up today - they had a limit of 10 per customer.

If you don't mind to say what state do they live in ???

A Home Depot in Houston Texas.

Cinnamon wrote:A Home Depot in Houston Texas.

Thank you..

I have been reading a lot about places running out of mask. Also the CDC is stocking up on them so the front line medics can have them first.. They have been telling people there is no need to buy mask and I hope they are right...

If the virus gets a good foothold here and people can't get something as simple as a mask they will start behaving badly...

http://news.trust.org/item/20200207115327-0muw0

I think we all saw this coming

Dave58 wrote:http://news.trust.org/item/20200207115327-0muw0

I think we all saw this coming

Yep. I bought my stuff last year.

I just watched a video by the Ice-Age Farmer on you-tube and he brought up a interesting question...

How much of our prescription meds come from China ???

What a great way to start the day.....

How much of our prescription meds come from China ???

Well, my prescriptions don't.
I think...

My Over the Counters, OTOH,... Hmmmmm

ReadyMom wrote:Where Your Drugs Come From: 90% of Many Common Drugs Made in China; FDA has Lost Control
https://www.americanjobsalliance.com/news/where-your-drugs-come-90-many-common-drugs-made-china-fda-has-lost-control

I was aware some of the ingredients came from China, but had no idea how bad the problem was.

TRex2 wrote:

ReadyMom wrote:Where Your Drugs Come From: 90% of Many Common Drugs Made in China; FDA has Lost Control
https://www.americanjobsalliance.com/news/where-your-drugs-come-90-many-common-drugs-made-china-fda-has-lost-control

I was aware some of the ingredients came from China, but had no idea how bad the problem was.

I just found this....

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/02/13/coronavirus-outbreak-exposes-chinas-monopoly-on-u-s-drug-medical-supplies/

I was picking up a few things at a local discount chain (Ocean State Job Lot) and noticed that the store has about 20-30% less stock than usual....not surprising since most of their non-food products come from China.

And maybe it's just a winter issue, but our rebranded pharmacy (Walgreens now, was Rite Aid) has been out of distilled water for 3 weeks, and I've checked two other Walgreens. Had to go to a different chain to get some, so I cleared the shelf (was just four bottles!) to make sure we have enough distilled water for the CPAP. Ok, so I may be part of the problem.

dmwalsh568 wrote:I was picking up a few things at a local discount chain (Ocean State Job Lot) and noticed that the store has about 20-30% less stock than usual....not surprising since most of their non-food products come from China.

And maybe it's just a winter issue, but our rebranded pharmacy (Walgreens now, was Rite Aid) has been out of distilled water for 3 weeks, and I've checked two other Walgreens. Had to go to a different chain to get some, so I cleared the shelf (was just four bottles!) to make sure we have enough distilled water for the CPAP. Ok, so I may be part of the problem.

I think it is panic buying in both cases, since the supply chains are slow enough the real shortages haven't hit yet. (And distilled water doesn't come from China.)

I went around to a few stores today and just checking things out surprise surprise I don't think our little town has more than maybe 100 mask total to be found..

Dave58 wrote:I went around to a few stores today and just checking things out  surprise surprise I don't think our little town has more than maybe 100 mask total to be found..

They are all over here in N.Central AR.
I would bet that, in your area, the nearby cities are causing a drain on supply.
I would, if I were you, go ahead and get what you need, plus a few extra, since the supply system is not going to recover from this for quite a few months.
I suspect there may be some panic, in larger cities, among the people who are aware of what this virus has the potential to do, in an urban population.

TRex2 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:I went around to a few stores today and just checking things out  surprise surprise I don't think our little town has more than maybe 100 mask total to be found..

They are all over here in N.Central AR.
I would bet that, in your area, the nearby cities are causing a drain on supply.
I would, if I were you, go ahead and get what you need, plus a few extra, since the supply system is not going to recover from this for quite a few months.  
I suspect there may be some panic, in larger cities, among the people who are aware of what this virus has the potential to do, in an urban population.

I bought what my wife and I would need in early Jan. I kinda figured something was up when China couldn't seem to get their numbers straight.
What is really scary is the fact that a lot of folks just don't seemed concerned about it here I mean if its not happening in their front yard its not going to happen to them....

The military taught me CYA I guess it stuck with me all this time...

I've been to several stores, including the walmarts and I see nothing as far as shortages on anything.

Now as far as masks, the experts say the people that should wear them, are the people that have a virus or have came in contact with the coronavirus or other viruses. People need to think, these masks don't cover your eyes which you can get any virus through them.

P.S. We have hundreds of masks.

Our Walmart had all their cold/flu stuff on shelves in the middle of the floor today. They were also in the process of stocking cold/flu meds on end caps.

It is interesting to note, I live in a mild winter area (lower Midwest). The cold/flu season is supposedly nearly over.

I should also mention that all the fruit trees were in the parking lot today - apples, plums, pears, cherries - they're putting out the Spring planting stuff already.

Flu is making a resurgence.

https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2020/02/15/this_flu_season_was_already_weird_it_is_getting_weirder_111294.html

Coronavirus may be in the headlines, but it's still flu season, and a weird one at that — officials are seeing a new spike in flu activity as a second strain of flu hits on the heels of the first.

The 2019-2020 flu season already had an unusual start — in December and early January, the main strain of flu virus circulating was a type called influenza B, Live Science previously reported. Typically, influenza B does not cause as many cases as influenza A strains (H1N1 and H3N2) and tends to show up later in the flu season, not at the beginning. Indeed, the last time influenza B dominated flu activity in the U.S. was during the 1992-1993 flu season, according to the CDC.

But now, influenza A is making a comeback. In recent weeks, there has been a surge in activity of H1N1 in the U.S., according to data from the CDC.

This may be a stupid question

Is there such a thing as making your own mask ????

ReadyMom wrote:

Dave58 wrote:This may be a stupid question

Is there such a thing as making your own mask ????

Yes. Go to the medical/masks forum and you'll see a thread on this!

I just read part of this , but it seems like something may have spooked the herd

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8064575/Panic-buying-hits-New-York-coronavirus-case-NYC.html

Dave58 wrote:I just read part of this , but it seems like something may have spooked the herd

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8064575/Panic-buying-hits-New-York-coronavirus-case-NYC.html

I hate to say this, but it's only going to get worse. People are starting to panic (in the cities), so far.

Went to the local warehouse store this weekend for my usual stocking trip and saw that the hand sanitizers had been wiped out as well as the medium and large nitrile gloves (there were just two boxes of small gloves left.)

And while checking out I noticed the couple in front of me was definitely prepping for a quarantine. 40 pounds of rice, 12 cans of spam, 16 cans of tuna, 3 bulk bottles of vitamin C gummies, 3-pack of Lysol disinfecting wipes and a 2 pound bag of onions.

Folks are definitely stating to take the news seriously.

It's getting worse, whether it's due to a supply chain slowdown or people are starting to panic due to the corona virus, people are going crazy:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/02/grocery-stores-coronavirus-panic-buying/