Supply Chain Observations and Questions

Coronavirus may be in the headlines, but it's still flu season, and a weird one at that — officials are seeing a new spike in flu activity as a second strain of flu hits on the heels of the first.

The 2019-2020 flu season already had an unusual start — in December and early January, the main strain of flu virus circulating was a type called influenza B, Live Science previously reported. Typically, influenza B does not cause as many cases as influenza A strains (H1N1 and H3N2) and tends to show up later in the flu season, not at the beginning. Indeed, the last time influenza B dominated flu activity in the U.S. was during the 1992-1993 flu season, according to the CDC.

But now, influenza A is making a comeback. In recent weeks, there has been a surge in activity of H1N1 in the U.S., according to data from the CDC.

Dave58 wrote:This may be a stupid question

Is there such a thing as making your own mask ????

ReadyMom wrote:

Dave58 wrote:This may be a stupid question

Is there such a thing as making your own mask ????

Yes. Go to the medical/masks forum and you'll see a thread on this!

Dave58 wrote:I just read part of this , but it seems like something may have spooked the herd

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8064575/Panic-buying-hits-New-York-coronavirus-case-NYC.html

Cinnamon wrote:It'll be interesting to see what happens when this calms down.

After the big snowstorms in my area, people started returning stuff to the stores. Not just generators, but dry goods, too.

rick1 wrote:Like TRex, I think this may be long term, but will the virus fall asleep come warm months and come back like all the other flu illnesses, or even worse (a different strain).

Kitchen disinfecting wipes are the type of wipe exposure most often called in to Poison Control. These wipes are mostly water but also contain detergents, antimicrobials, and other components to boost their effectiveness. The detergents in these products can sound dangerous. For example: alkyl dimethylbenzyl ammonium chloride and alkyl dimethylethylbenzyl ammonium chloride. These components are cationic detergents that can cause chemical burns in high concentrations; however, in the wipes they are only 0.01-0.1%. This concentration is high enough to break apart a bacterial cell wall, just as hand soap does, but not high enough to break down human skin. Some kitchen disinfecting wipes use hydrogen peroxide, isopropyl alcohol, or ethanol in conjunction with a detergent or alone.

Depending on the brand, ingredients can be made from natural products or manufactured. In general, the source of the ingredients (natural versus man-made) does not change the efficacy or toxicity.

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:Hey guys it's been awhile since I've posted here. I took a bit of a break I've been very busy.

I'm working from home today (and for the foreseeable future) as all schools are closed until further notice.

Rest assured, I'm doing my part now planning out my little piece of the supply chain that I manage.

Things have been busy.

I'll try to be more active in the forum again

Dave58 wrote:Well its seems there is a shortage on toilet paper and paper towels ... Will wonders never cease ???  

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:Hey guys it's been awhile since I've posted here. I took a bit of a break I've been very busy.

I'm working from home today (and for the foreseeable future) as all schools are closed until further notice.

Rest assured, I'm doing my part now planning out my little piece of the supply chain that I manage.

Things have been busy.

I'll try to be more active in the forum again

Cinnamon wrote:Walmarts are supposedly closing to stock up from 6-11pm and many stores are setting up an "senior hour" so that older people don't have to fight off the young people. This info picked up from relatives quoting "sources." Make of it what you will.  

TRex2 wrote:

Cinnamon wrote:Walmarts are supposedly closing to stock up from 6-11pm and many stores are setting up an "senior hour" so that older people don't have to fight off the young people. This info picked up from relatives quoting "sources." Make of it what you will.  

I heard the same, and that Target and Dollar General are taking similar steps.

Cin wrote:some of the long-haul trucker people I know are worried - they need the rest areas open, at least.

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:...
Distribution Warehouses are very low on stock so pretty much as soon as newly produced food arrives it's distributed to regional stores.

Hopefully the truck drivers and warehouse workers can stay healthy. Who knows how they will react once there are confirmed cases amongst their co-workers. Hopefully there isn't mass sick call offs out of fear of catching the virus

Many of the drivers I talk to are very worried about the virus and since they all share trucks if a co worker gets it, I don't know if they all just start calling in sick.  Also, there are more "older" drivers than younger.  So they are very concerned right now.

rick1 wrote:Like the small grocer in Michigan, there are two small grocers in my area with the same problem. They can't even keep bread on the shelves and those are bought local from the city bakery.

They've put limits on all bread products, all beef/chicken products, all paper products, all detergent products, etc..

I asked the manager why and he said that they're not getting their full orders delivered, only partials, because of the demand. He also said that many warehouses from where the products are shipped from are running drastically low.

Glad I prep.

Dave58 wrote:Ok I woke up with this in my head this fine morning...

What are the chances of farm animals ie.. Beef , Hogs , Chickens  getting this virus ???

Does anybody have any thoughts ???

As far as animals, I know the usual corona cold viruses they can get - our kid's dog had one when she was acquired from the shelter. The dog was treated and no longer has it.

TRex2 wrote:

As far as animals, I know the usual corona cold viruses they can get - our kid's dog had one when she was acquired from the shelter. The dog was treated and no longer has it.

Dogs can NOT get this one. I saw a chart once, and wish I had benchmarked it, that showed which animals can get which subclasses (clades) of coronavirus, and this one is a long ways from the ones that dogs can get.

Edit: Here it is, skim down to page 7 and ignore the jargon.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/genomic-characterization-of-2019-nCoV-Lancet-1-29-2020.pdf

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:This was bound to happen sooner or later, but it's not a good development

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-workers-getting-sick-latest-020020636.html

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:This was bound to happen sooner or later, but it's not a good development
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-workers-getting-sick-latest-020020636.html

Lydia Mulvany, Deena Shanker and Isis Almeida
Bloomberg March 27, 2020
(Bloomberg) --

Poultry giant Sanderson Farms Inc. on Monday reported the first case of a worker at a major U.S. meat producer testing positive for coronavirus. The employee and six more from the McComb, Mississippi, plant were sent home to self-quarantine, with pay, but operations continued as normal.

A few days later Smithfield Foods Inc., the world’s biggest pork producer, confirmed a positive case at its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, facility. On Friday, beef producers in Canada and Argentina shuttered plants after virus cases.

In all likelihood, the number of cases will keep going up at meat plants, farms, warehouses and packaging factories across the globe.

The infections speak to a growing threat to the world’s food supplies. Massive operations where workers pick berries together, cut meat side-by-side on a production line or load warehouse trucks in sometimes close proximity risk slowing down. Some facilities may have to shutter for cleaning and worker quarantines. Produce could end up rotting in fields if there aren’t enough healthy workers.

“If we can’t flatten the curve, then that is going to affect farmers and farm laborers -- and then we have to make choices about which crops we harvest and which ones we don’t,” said Al Stehly, who operates a farm-management business in California’s North San Diego County, growing about 250 acres of citrus crops, 250 acres of organic avocados and 60 acres of wine grapes. “We hope no one gets sick. But I would expect some of us are going to get the virus.”

To be clear, the food from a plant where infection pops up doesn’t pose health concerns because by all accounts Covid-19 isn’t a food-borne illness. Supplies from a farm or a production plant with a confirmed case can still be sent out for distribution.

And it’s important to note that so far there’s been no major interruptions to food supplies. Inventories are still ample, and major bottlenecks have not yet developed in the supply chains, which tend to react quickly to changing situations.

Still, there is a risk to continued production. When a worker gets sick, the employee and every person they’ve come into contact with has to be quarantined. That could mean limited impact in some cases, like at the Sanderson factory, where the infected individual’s work was contained to one small processing table. But the more employee mingling there is, the bigger the threat to production.

TRex2 wrote:

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:This was bound to happen sooner or later, but it's not a good development
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-workers-getting-sick-latest-020020636.html

From the link:

Lydia Mulvany, Deena Shanker and Isis Almeida
Bloomberg March 27, 2020
(Bloomberg) --

Poultry giant Sanderson Farms Inc. on Monday reported the first case of a worker at a major U.S. meat producer testing positive for coronavirus. The employee and six more from the McComb, Mississippi, plant were sent home to self-quarantine, with pay, but operations continued as normal.

A few days later Smithfield Foods Inc., the world’s biggest pork producer, confirmed a positive case at its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, facility. On Friday, beef producers in Canada and Argentina shuttered plants after virus cases.

In all likelihood, the number of cases will keep going up at meat plants, farms, warehouses and packaging factories across the globe.

The infections speak to a growing threat to the world’s food supplies. Massive operations where workers pick berries together, cut meat side-by-side on a production line or load warehouse trucks in sometimes close proximity risk slowing down. Some facilities may have to shutter for cleaning and worker quarantines. Produce could end up rotting in fields if there aren’t enough healthy workers.

“If we can’t flatten the curve, then that is going to affect farmers and farm laborers -- and then we have to make choices about which crops we harvest and which ones we don’t,” said Al Stehly, who operates a farm-management business in California’s North San Diego County, growing about 250 acres of citrus crops, 250 acres of organic avocados and 60 acres of wine grapes. “We hope no one gets sick. But I would expect some of us are going to get the virus.”

To be clear, the food from a plant where infection pops up doesn’t pose health concerns because by all accounts Covid-19 isn’t a food-borne illness. Supplies from a farm or a production plant with a confirmed case can still be sent out for distribution.

And it’s important to note that so far there’s been no major interruptions to food supplies. Inventories are still ample, and major bottlenecks have not yet developed in the supply chains, which tend to react quickly to changing situations.

Still, there is a risk to continued production. When a worker gets sick, the employee and every person they’ve come into contact with has to be quarantined. That could mean limited impact in some cases, like at the Sanderson factory, where the infected individual’s work was contained to one small processing table. But the more employee mingling there is, the bigger the threat to production.