Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions

by TRex2 Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:58 am

Unless you have plans to raise bats for meat, I don't think the food chain will be a problem.

Hopefully, though, this virus doesn't find its way into the wild bat population, as it would be theoretically possible for bat activity to contaminate surfaces that people come into contact with.

I think the larger problem will be that the virus is setting up to become endemic in our population, meaning that we will never track down all of the cases and it will be like the common cold, but with occasionally fatal results.
(I think I have drifted way off of the "supply chain" topic, here.)

by Cinnamon Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:40 am

TREx - still good information. Supply chain involves meat, and it's a good idea to be informed.

I know dogs can't get THIS virus, but I did know they could get some of the 'normal' corona viruses.

Buy local is becoming a mantra around here...and produce your own is also coming back into vogue.

People are going back to having their own chickens, livestock, and gardens.

by **ReadyMom** Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:16 am

Egg Prices Soar as Coronavirus Panic-Buying Clears Shelves
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/27/egg-prices-soar-as-coronavirus-panic-buying-clears.aspx

Prices tripled within a matter of weeks, exceeding the levels hit during the avian flu outbreak five years ago.
The coronavirus pandemic has sent egg prices soaring. The cost of a dozen eggs now exceeds the prices hit during the avian flu crisis in 2015 when the outbreak led to the slaughter of over 40 million birds, or some 12% of the national laying flock.

While panic buying has mostly focused on hand sanitizer or toilet paper, consumers have been also clearing store shelves of eggs, a cheap source of protein, causing prices to triple within a matter of weeks. ---CONTINUED---

by **ReadyMom** Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:31 am

How Amazon is prioritizing orders right now
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/how-amazon-is-prioritizing-orders-right-now/ar-BB11Kszt?li=BBnbfcN&ocid=iehp

f you've tried to order anything from Amazon over the past week, you've likely run into delayed shipping and delivery timelines. That's understandable, with the sudden surge in online shopping in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many states and municipalities are asking people to limit interactions via social distancing and shelter-in-place orders to prevent the spread of the virus. Grocery stores and other essential services are still open, but many people are turning to online retailers like Amazon to fulfill their shopping needs.

To handle this upswing in orders, Amazon is taking steps to ensure that they don't run out of essential products. ---CONTINUED---

by Drinkthekoolaid Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:10 pm

Truck drivers are now beginning to refuse driving into the new York City metro area. Thats not unexpected and it's also not a good sign.

by Drinkthekoolaid Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:16 pm

This was bound to happen sooner or later, but it's not a good development

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-workers-getting-sick-latest-020020636.html

by rick1 Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:20 pm

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:This was bound to happen sooner or later, but it's not a good development

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-workers-getting-sick-latest-020020636.html

Well Drink, you're right, only a matter of time, no different then the truckers not wanting to deliver to NYC. And this is only the beginning, it will get worse, a lot worse. Stock up and then stock up some more.

by TRex2 Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:19 pm

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:This was bound to happen sooner or later, but it's not a good development
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-workers-getting-sick-latest-020020636.html

From the link:

Lydia Mulvany, Deena Shanker and Isis Almeida
Bloomberg March 27, 2020
(Bloomberg) --

Poultry giant Sanderson Farms Inc. on Monday reported the first case of a worker at a major U.S. meat producer testing positive for coronavirus. The employee and six more from the McComb, Mississippi, plant were sent home to self-quarantine, with pay, but operations continued as normal.

A few days later Smithfield Foods Inc., the world’s biggest pork producer, confirmed a positive case at its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, facility. On Friday, beef producers in Canada and Argentina shuttered plants after virus cases.

In all likelihood, the number of cases will keep going up at meat plants, farms, warehouses and packaging factories across the globe.

The infections speak to a growing threat to the world’s food supplies. Massive operations where workers pick berries together, cut meat side-by-side on a production line or load warehouse trucks in sometimes close proximity risk slowing down. Some facilities may have to shutter for cleaning and worker quarantines. Produce could end up rotting in fields if there aren’t enough healthy workers.

“If we can’t flatten the curve, then that is going to affect farmers and farm laborers -- and then we have to make choices about which crops we harvest and which ones we don’t,” said Al Stehly, who operates a farm-management business in California’s North San Diego County, growing about 250 acres of citrus crops, 250 acres of organic avocados and 60 acres of wine grapes. “We hope no one gets sick. But I would expect some of us are going to get the virus.”

To be clear, the food from a plant where infection pops up doesn’t pose health concerns because by all accounts Covid-19 isn’t a food-borne illness. Supplies from a farm or a production plant with a confirmed case can still be sent out for distribution.

And it’s important to note that so far there’s been no major interruptions to food supplies. Inventories are still ample, and major bottlenecks have not yet developed in the supply chains, which tend to react quickly to changing situations.

Still, there is a risk to continued production. When a worker gets sick, the employee and every person they’ve come into contact with has to be quarantined. That could mean limited impact in some cases, like at the Sanderson factory, where the infected individual’s work was contained to one small processing table. But the more employee mingling there is, the bigger the threat to production.

by Dave58 Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:59 pm

TRex2 wrote:
Drinkthekoolaid wrote:This was bound to happen sooner or later, but it's not a good development
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-workers-getting-sick-latest-020020636.html
From the link:
Lydia Mulvany, Deena Shanker and Isis Almeida
Bloomberg March 27, 2020
(Bloomberg) --

Poultry giant Sanderson Farms Inc. on Monday reported the first case of a worker at a major U.S. meat producer testing positive for coronavirus. The employee and six more from the McComb, Mississippi, plant were sent home to self-quarantine, with pay, but operations continued as normal.

A few days later Smithfield Foods Inc., the world’s biggest pork producer, confirmed a positive case at its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, facility. On Friday, beef producers in Canada and Argentina shuttered plants after virus cases.

In all likelihood, the number of cases will keep going up at meat plants, farms, warehouses and packaging factories across the globe.

The infections speak to a growing threat to the world’s food supplies. Massive operations where workers pick berries together, cut meat side-by-side on a production line or load warehouse trucks in sometimes close proximity risk slowing down. Some facilities may have to shutter for cleaning and worker quarantines. Produce could end up rotting in fields if there aren’t enough healthy workers.

“If we can’t flatten the curve, then that is going to affect farmers and farm laborers -- and then we have to make choices about which crops we harvest and which ones we don’t,” said Al Stehly, who operates a farm-management business in California’s North San Diego County, growing about 250 acres of citrus crops, 250 acres of organic avocados and 60 acres of wine grapes. “We hope no one gets sick. But I would expect some of us are going to get the virus.”

To be clear, the food from a plant where infection pops up doesn’t pose health concerns because by all accounts Covid-19 isn’t a food-borne illness. Supplies from a farm or a production plant with a confirmed case can still be sent out for distribution.

And it’s important to note that so far there’s been no major interruptions to food supplies. Inventories are still ample, and major bottlenecks have not yet developed in the supply chains, which tend to react quickly to changing situations.

Still, there is a risk to continued production. When a worker gets sick, the employee and every person they’ve come into contact with has to be quarantined. That could mean limited impact in some cases, like at the Sanderson factory, where the infected individual’s work was contained to one small processing table. But the more employee mingling there is, the bigger the threat to production.

I think its way past flattening the curve... There are quite a few country's that have quit exporting goods such as grain, wheat.. Last year we had a very bad harvest and this year people are too sick to plant and too sick to harvest... My niece lives in London and said they can no longer get fresh vegetables and I don't think we are far behind...

I am afraid we all need to raise a garden and a chicken or 2 if we want to eat

by Dave58 Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:54 am

If you eat you need to read this

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/supplies-are-starting-to-get-really-tight-nationwide-as-food-distribution-systems-break-down

Plant a garden flower

by Cinnamon Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:22 am

Husband went in this morning during "senior hour" to get a few things, nothing on the rationed list, just a few things. He said it was packed and people were panicking. When the doors opened, they rushed to the TP aisle, the soap/hand sanitizer aisle, and the cleaning products aisle...all out.

He said frozen foods were nearly stripped bare, but he got a few bags of mixed veggies. He was able to get juices and some produce (we didn't need much, just bananas and mushrooms).

I believe it's time to really lock down and eat out of the freezers and cabinets, and then move on to the LTS, if necessary.

I don't want him grocery shopping in a store anymore.

by Cinnamon Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:38 am

Dave58 wrote:If you eat you need to read this

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/supplies-are-starting-to-get-really-tight-nationwide-as-food-distribution-systems-break-down

Plant a garden

Done. All our rural neighbors are planting, too.

by Dave58 Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:01 am

Cinnamon wrote:Husband went in this morning during "senior hour" to get a few things, nothing on the rationed list, just a few things. He said it was packed and people were panicking. When the doors opened, they rushed to the TP aisle, the soap/hand sanitizer aisle, and the cleaning products aisle...all out.

He said frozen foods were nearly stripped bare, but he got a few bags of mixed veggies. He was able to get juices and some produce (we didn't need much, just bananas and mushrooms).

I believe it's time to really lock down and eat out of the freezers and cabinets, and then move on to the LTS, if necessary.

I don't want him grocery shopping in a store anymore.

Sounds like a good idea...

by rick1 Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:34 pm

Dave58 wrote:If you eat you need to read this

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/supplies-are-starting-to-get-really-tight-nationwide-as-food-distribution-systems-break-down

Plant a garden

Dave, are you telling us, that your going vegan PopCorn

by Dave58 Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:52 pm

rick1 wrote:
Dave58 wrote:If you eat you need to read this

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/supplies-are-starting-to-get-really-tight-nationwide-as-food-distribution-systems-break-down

Plant a garden

Dave, are you telling us, that your going vegan

Me be a vegan ?? Laugh-Roll

We have chickens they are really a good duel purpose pet. They are soft and cuddly and if you get tired of them you can eat them, plus they poop breakfast...

I'm going to try and set up rabbits later this spring..

I talked to my neighbor ( He farms around 1000 acres ) he told me that the farmers are trying to be extra careful about getting sick... If they get sick we are all screwed

Folks its going to be a wild ride this summer

by rick1 Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:12 pm

I have chickens and cows (black angus), 12 of them, good eaten'.

As far as rabbits, we raised them for years, good eaten', very lean. I had a pen that I built that you could move around the yard for them to eat, the pen had no bottom, moved it several times a day, they grew fast and populated very fast. I quit raising rabbits a couple of years ago, couldn't even give the meat away.

I like the way you have chickens that poop eggs. Maybe ReadyMom could get us a emoticon on that one. What do ya think RM? Laugh Animated

Oh, here's a link on the supply chain being disrupted:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-food-crisis-looms-as-farms-idle-countries-hoard-supplies.html

by TRex2 Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:45 am

I ran across a graph, about eight years ago, that shows the relationship between supply, demand, and price. Unfortunately I don't remember where I got it, but if you think about it, you will see how logical the relationship is.

I am currently not able to upload it, so I will describe it.

The right hand side of the graph looks like a normal curve, starting about medium high and decreasing to low on the right edge. From the middle, it increases until it hits a certain point, and then the slope suddenly skyrockets.

From left to right is the amount of a commodity in the system. Normal amount provides a price of normal and as the commodity gets scarcer, the price increases to around double the normal. Any less than that amount, and the price suddenly skyrockets.

by rick1 Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:39 am

There's an article in the paper today about a local cattle farmer, who deals with two different companies that buy/butcher his beef.

He has 135 heads that were to be purchased this month (April) and both companies can't buy them because they shut their plants down because several of their employees have COVID-19.

Two of our local grocers (Bi-Lo and Giant Eagle) haven't had burger in weeks and the other beef products they have are wayyyyyyy overpriced. A beef roast is going for $7.99 a pound.

Glad I have my own beef.

by Dave58 Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:57 pm

rick1 wrote:There's an article in the paper today about a local cattle farmer, who deals with two different companies that buy/butcher his beef.

He has 135 heads that were to be purchased this month (April) and both companies can't buy them because they shut their plants down because several of their employees have COVID-19.

Two of our local grocers (Bi-Lo and Giant Eagle) haven't had burger in weeks and the other beef products they have are wayyyyyyy overpriced. A beef roast is going for $7.99 a pound.

Glad I have my own beef.

Sadly I don't have the ground for any cattle.. I am strongly thinking about Turkeys and Rabbits to go with my chickens..

I'm pretty sure we are going to have a real bad year...

I'm going to try and order some more seeds and I am thinking about trying blue potato's..

You guys stay safe

by rick1 Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:07 pm

Dave58 wrote:
rick1 wrote:There's an article in the paper today about a local cattle farmer, who deals with two different companies that buy/butcher his beef.

He has 135 heads that were to be purchased this month (April) and both companies can't buy them because they shut their plants down because several of their employees have COVID-19.

Two of our local grocers (Bi-Lo and Giant Eagle) haven't had burger in weeks and the other beef products they have are wayyyyyyy overpriced. A beef roast is going for $7.99 a pound.

Glad I have my own beef.

Sadly I don't have the ground for any cattle.. I am strongly thinking about Turkeys and Rabbits to go with my chickens..

I'm pretty sure we are going to have a real bad year...

I'm going to try and order some more seeds and I am thinking about trying blue potato's..

You guys stay safe

Dave, I sent you a PM about rabbits, 2 doe and 1 buck will give you 180 lbs of meat a year, pretty cheap and you only need a little room for rabbits, you can even raise them in you house, if your wife will let ya.

by **ReadyMom** Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:41 pm

rick1 wrote:
I like the way you have chickens that poop eggs. Maybe ReadyMom could get us a emoticon on that one. What do ya think RM?

Your wish is my command. Will this do? CartoonHen

...

by Dave58 Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:09 pm

ReadyMom wrote:
rick1 wrote:
I like the way you have chickens that poop eggs. Maybe ReadyMom could get us a emoticon on that one. What do ya think RM?

Your wish is my command. Will this do? ...

The chicken is perfect RM Laugh-Roll

by TRex2 Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:54 pm

ReadyMom, you are a riot !

by **ReadyMom** Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:13 pm

TRex2 wrote:ReadyMom, you are a riot !

Ha! I aim to please. Humor will go a long way during this pandemic.

by rick1 Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:31 pm

ReadyMom wrote:
rick1 wrote:
I like the way you have chickens that poop eggs. Maybe ReadyMom could get us a emoticon on that one. What do ya think RM?

Your wish is my command. Will this do? ...

Now that's funny, you're a real trip RM, thanks. Thumbs Up-Wink

by Cinnamon Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:26 pm

ReadyMom wrote:
rick1 wrote:
I like the way you have chickens that poop eggs. Maybe ReadyMom could get us a emoticon on that one. What do ya think RM?

Your wish is my command. Will this do? ...

by TRex2 Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:00 pm

I wrote an essay, aimed at non-preppers,
about the approaching food shortages,
and posted it in "My Little Space."

A bit long (I was afraid I would exceed the limit for posting),
but feel free to copy the text or whatever from it and send to others.

This is the link to the posting:
https://emergencyhomeprep.forumotion.com/t1484-trex2-an-observer-of-mankind#8575

by Drinkthekoolaid Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:00 am

Major food producers are now "temporarily" shutting down due to coronavirus outbreaks amongst their workers.

Companies like Tyson chicken and Smithfield pork have closed slaughter and packing plants.

Other smaller level food manufacturers are doing the same thing.

Hopefully this doesn't last too long.

by rick1 Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:21 pm

I was watching the evening news yesterday when they showed a dairy farmer dumping ten's of thousands of gallons of milk, no market for it.

They also said about chicken farmers throwing away their eggs, no market, but yet eggs are $2.00 a dozen.

by TRex2 Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:28 pm

There are problems in packaging, distribution and shipping.

Big problems. There is plenty of food, and plenty of demand, but no way to get the food from the farmer to the customer.

Fortunately, these problems are temporary.
Unfortunately, they will be replaced by new problems.
Fortunately, Americans are creative, and ambitious, and will overcome the problems.
Unfortunately, there will be gaps and interruptions happening between problem and solution.
Fortu... ok, that's enough for now Smile

by rick1 Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:40 pm

Here's an article on why farmers are dumping their milk and destroying their eggs:

https://www.newhope.com/news/55-farmers-destroy-milk-eggs-demand-plummets-walmart-grocery-app-hits-record-downloads

by Cinnamon Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:10 am

I'm with TRex.

I believe there will be a whole new way to do things, and a lot of businesses won't operate the same way when we get on the other side of this.

I can see fast food joints especially - drive-thru only, fewer employees, less benefits package, less overhead, less liability, etc. They'll weigh all those costs out to the max, and decide on what is financially feasible.

Apparently, a lot of restaurants in smaller towns are offering drive-in movies - showing a movie on a big screen, you stay in your car, text your food order, and they bring food carside, similar to the drive-in restaurants of old. I can see this potentially being a new way of business.

I can see the pros and cons of moving to locally available sourcing. A lot of things to consider there. Fresher produce, but less variety. Higher prices due to smaller farming practices. But better quality and nutrition, too.

If this work from home thing proves to be more productive (and many corporations are already claiming it is), I can see more people working from home, which will kill the commute, the gas stations along the way, the eating out at lunch, the shops around business areas...again, pros and cons to the new business model.

With more stay-at-home workers, I see the return of ice cream trucks, and perhaps taco, Asian, and burger mobiles going through housing areas around 3-8 PM, too.

We, and the rest of the USA will adapt. We live in interesting times.

by Blondie Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:24 pm

One thing that I picked up from APN was to expand your sources for food and other preps. What I learned over time has saved my behind.

Local stores are out of beef, chicken, pork sausage and ground turkey. I did find flour, albeit bread flour and yeast at a local Mennonite store. If you search online you can find recipes/substitutions for all purpose flour.

Some of the girls I work with have chickens and eggs are fetching $2 a dozen or they are bartering.

Currently I'm working from home but make no mistake, management wants to get us all back in ASAP. They have no one to micromanage.

by Dave58 Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:02 am

Blondie wrote:One thing that I picked up from APN was to expand your sources for food and other preps. What I learned over time has saved my behind.

Local stores are out of beef, chicken, pork sausage and ground turkey. I did find flour, albeit bread flour and yeast at a local Mennonite store. If you search online you can find recipes/substitutions for all purpose flour.

Some of the girls I work with have chickens and eggs are fetching $2 a dozen or they are bartering.

Currently I'm working from home but make no mistake, management wants to get us all back in ASAP. They have no one to micromanage.

Glad to see you made it here.. Hat Tip

We always try to buy in bulk. The biggest challenge is going to be renewable food sources.. We have chickens , but don't have enough room for beef or pork.. i am currently trying to get set up for rabbits and maybe turkeys. We also have a lg garden.

The Amish bulk food store we use is having a hard time getting some things in right now..

I am trying to buy up some extra seed for planting but I think that is going to be a challenge as time goes on...

by rick1 Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:13 am

Stock up on your pork products, Smithfield foods is shutting down one of its largest pork processing plants. It processes 18,000,000 servings per day:

https://apnews.com/0cd7680d2d221944ed05f86691bb3537

by Drinkthekoolaid Mon Apr 13, 2020 7:13 am

https://www.wivb.com/news/national/u-s-nearing-brink-of-virus-linked-meat-shortage-major-producer-says/q

Rick,

This was one of my fears earlier in this thread, what happens when the food producer workers get the virus.

Yes rick its not sounding great. More plants are closing so this will have an effect on meat production

by rick1 Mon Apr 13, 2020 7:56 am

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:https://www.wivb.com/news/national/u-s-nearing-brink-of-virus-linked-meat-shortage-major-producer-says/q

Rick,

This was one of my fears earlier in this thread, what happens when the food producer workers get the virus.

Yes rick its not sounding great. More plants are closing so this will have an effect on meat production

Hey, don't forget (I did) about our produce, the farmers are having a very hard time getting people to pick their produce and most come from south of the border. Shocked

by Blondie Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:00 pm

This year was the first time I've ever seen migrants here picking crops. Usually there are enough unskilled local kids willing to pick crops but Target has been paying $13/hr here and $15/hr in the Detroit area.

It will be interesting to see if migrants return this year.

by Dave58 Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:08 pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elbow-elbow-north-america-meat-115920055.html

I also heard that Tyson shut down 2 of their plants today , but I don't if that's true or not...

If you think you need more Pork or Chicken you should probably go ahead and get it

by Dave58 Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:12 pm

https://www.chron.com/business/article/Grocery-workers-increasingly-fear-showing-up-at-15195858.php

Sad

by TRex2 Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:11 pm

Dave58 wrote:https://www.chron.com/business/article/Grocery-workers-increasingly-fear-showing-up-at-15195858.php

Before Covid-19 (era: BC ? ) I would never willingly use an automated check out, since it was a progression towards putting someone out of a job. Today is different. Today I used an automated check out and they had someone standing by to sanitize it, after I was done.

by dmwalsh568 Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:45 pm

TRex2 wrote:
Dave58 wrote:https://www.chron.com/business/article/Grocery-workers-increasingly-fear-showing-up-at-15195858.php

Before Covid-19 (era: BC ? ) I would never willingly use an automated check out, since it was a progression towards putting someone out of a job. Today is different. Today I used an automated check out and they had someone standing by to sanitize it, after I was done.

Yep, at the wholesale club we used to always go to a real cashier, but these days we not only use the self-check we use the scanner wand so we don't put anything on the belt and just leave the products in the cart. Carts are sanitized before each customer enters the store so that reduces the chances of contaminated packaging.

And I can't remember if I've shared this, but our warehouse club is no longer taking paper coupons. They turned all the club coupons into clipless so they automatically get deducted from the total when we total the bill. Minimizing the risk to their associates and helping us all stay healthy while we still get the savings we were expecting. Love Eyes

by **ReadyMom** Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:28 pm

I'm using my phone as the scanner. (Some stores offer an app to do that). NO interaction with any one at all. Scan on my phone. Pack it up, in the cart as I go. Click 'check out'. Pass through designated area and get in the car.

by Drinkthekoolaid Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:57 am

https://www.infowars.com/gop-rep-massie-warns-usa-weeks-away-from-food-shortages/

by rick1 Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:59 pm

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:https://www.infowars.com/gop-rep-massie-warns-usa-weeks-away-from-food-shortages/

Good read Drink, hope it's not true, Rep. Massie is not the most liked person in the U.S..

If true, stock your freezers, pantries and under your bed.

by Dave58 Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:04 pm

They are closing the processing plants because the the virus.

Meat and some other things are going to be scarce in the very near future.....

Its almost past time to start canning and freezing

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/492625-food-supply-worries-grow-after-outbreak-closes

by TRex2 Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:06 am

rick1 wrote:
Drinkthekoolaid wrote:https://www.infowars.com/gop-rep-massie-warns-usa-weeks-away-from-food-shortages/
Good read Drink, hope it's not true, Rep. Massie is not the most liked person in the U.S..

I have no doubt at all that Rep Massie is right. We have been seeing this coming for a couple weeks.

If true, stock your freezers, pantries and under your bed.

I don't think raw meat under my bed is a good idea.
The smell would make it hard to sleep.
(sorry, couldn't resist the humor Laughing

)

by rick1 Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:30 am

TRex2 wrote:
rick1 wrote:
Drinkthekoolaid wrote:https://www.infowars.com/gop-rep-massie-warns-usa-weeks-away-from-food-shortages/
Good read Drink, hope it's not true, Rep. Massie is not the most liked person in the U.S..
I have no doubt at all that Rep Massie is right. We have been seeing this coming for a couple weeks.

If true, stock your freezers, pantries and under your bed.
I don't think raw meat under my bed is a good idea.
The smell would make it hard to sleep.
(sorry, couldn't resist the humor )

You're a trip TRex, that is funny. The freeze dried version would be ok.

by Blondie Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:44 am

So getting close to 45 days in, how are your supply chains, warehouse stores, buying clubs holding out? What are you finding locally that is coming back in stock? What's now AWOL on your local shelves?

CNBC this morning saying grocery stores are selling 29% more than they ever have.

Name brand toilet paper and paper towels are showing back up at Target but at about 40% higher price. MIA are meat products, beef, pork and chicken still in short supply and outrageously pricey.

Frozen potatoes, frozen veggies and frozen bread/bread dough also gone.

I agree with the InfoWars interview about freezers in short supply. I was looking at a freezer online, overnite the supply was gone. Upgraded to a better freezer and took delivery about a month ago. That freezer is no longer available.

by Dave58 Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:56 am

We still have plenty of eggs and milk at the store. Cheese is really looking slim , so is canned biscuits and butter..

The meat is still good for right now. I even found pork butt roast for .99 lb I am going to buy about 30 lbs tomorrow and make more sausage...

There is a shortage of beans and canned meat and a 3 limit per person on a lot of things

by rick1 Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:43 am

OK, went to the store this morning and here's what I found or didn't find:

1 dozen eggs is now $3.69 a dozen, I told them I'll sell them mine at $2.50 a dozen.

80% lean ground beef is now $4.69 a pound, a month ago it was $2.99. I talked to one of the butchers that I've known for years and he said in a couple of weeks that they won't be getting a full delivery of beef or pork and the prices will be about 25% higher.

There is still no toilet paper or paper towels, I offered to sell some of my stock to them, they laughed about that.

Canned goods, no matter what it was, were only 1/2 stocked on the shelves. The tuna fish and ravioli were empty.

Things aren't looking up, at least here where we live.

by rick1 Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:53 am

May be looking at a $13.6 billion dollar loss in meat products, sooooo you know what you'll be paying for beef in the near future. I'm glad I have my own beef cows. Having one butched as we speak.

GO VEGAN Dancing Yellow

https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2020/04/14/Concerns-over-US-meat-supply-chain-following-plant-closures

by Blondie Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:44 pm

So for those with a crystal ball, any guess as to what items other than what's been mentioned will be missing in the near term or longer?

I'll venture out to the bulk store tomorrow. Most of their products come from Ohio's Amish counties.

by dmwalsh568 Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:53 pm

Went to the market this morning to beat the folks who shop on Friday thru Sunday.

While there are still gaps in the shelves, most products are available again, albeit at higher prices. One example: Near East Rice Pilaf and mixes are $1.99 per box with sale prices of $0.88 to $1.29 usually. This week's sale price is $1.79. Markets are waking up to the fact that folks with money will pay full freight when they can find stuff since everyone wants to stock up.

They even had toilet paper, paper towels and napkins in stock all at the same time. Full price and limited quantities, but prior to today as soon as the product hit the shelves it vanished.

One very weird thing was seeing #10 cans of beans and sauces with Sysco labels on them in an endcap display. They even had flatpack mylar bags of tuna and large jugs of mayo, also from Sysco. Guess the closure of so many restaurants means Sysco needs to move their product via retailers.

I skipped the Sysco stuff since I'm just shopping for two. But I was still able to get some ham steaks and Canadian bacon for breakfast choices. And boxed ultra-pasteurized milk was still fully stocked, so I picked up a couple more. This keeps up, I'll actually have to start putting it into rotation or risk it going past date.

by Cinnamon Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:23 pm

We've basically stopped shopping, but our little local restaurant, which is closed indefinitely, had just stocked up before the SIP came through, so when I need stuff, I just ask what they have and get what I can. It's actually been kind of convenient.

Other than that, eating out of the freezer first, then will hit the very well stocked pantry, before moving to LTS (which may take several months).

by Blondie Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:47 pm

Interesting experiences this weekend.

I went to the Mennonite bulk store. Shelves were still bare of AP flour and bread flour. No yeast, either. They dont usually carry a lot of beef products but they were out. While they had lunchmeat and cheese, no sausage or bacon. And OMG, 2lb roll of lightly salted butter was $8.99! 3 weeks ago it was $3.99. They stopped carrying local, organic milk.

Ventured to Detroit. Oldest wanted to check his apt (I have a letter to drive on) it's like a 3rd World Country down there. Everyone in masks and gloves, even while driving alone in their own car! Took a drive by Whole Foods, about 20 people in PPE waiting to get in. Target was empty, no one waiting in line to get in.

by TRex2 Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:32 am

In the past couple of days, I have seen three postings from various parts of the country, that many of the panic buyers favorite pickings are back in stock. This could mean that panic buying is on the wane, and the next several days will be opportunity to replenish stocks, before the next crisis.

I have certain rules of thumb that I go by, when stocking up. (Most are written for beginners, to keep from adding to the panic.)

https://emergencyhomeprep.forumotion.com/t1484-trex2-an-observer-of-mankind#8852

by rick1 Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:23 pm

Tyson foods warns of meat shortage and the food supply breaking:

https://www.today.com/food/tyson-foods-warns-meat-shortages-food-supply-breaking-t179962

by Cinnamon Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:54 pm

Husband went alone on Thursday to the grocery store. The store was nearly deserted of customers but employees all had masks on. He got the luxuries we needed (cream, juice, bananas, apples, and few other things) and stocked up on canned goods that were there. He said most things were stocked, but limited to two per customer. He even found 2 cans of generic disinfectant and got a pack of paper towels.

Still no rubbing alcohol, hand sanitizer, bleach, or disinfectant cleaning supplies.

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