Supply Chain Observations and Questions
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-ukraine-war-wheat/2022/03/06/id/1059840/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM309303_03062022&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010502g7nlq4
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Like a stone thrown into a pond,rick1 wrote:The Russia/Ukraine war threatens food supply, wheat up 55% since the Russian invasion:
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-ukraine-war-wheat/2022/03/06/id/1059840/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM309303_03062022&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010502g7nlq4
(from the link)
As you travel further, the war has less impact, and the impact takes longer, but in the end, everybody will feel the impact.A prolonged conflict would have a big impact some 1,500 miles (2,400 kilometers) away in Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer.
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On a more local note, when Kellogg's factory workers went on strike in Battle Creek MI and 2 other locations, management immediately went on their rant about "we'll export your jobs to China, or, or Mexico!!!".... to which their union replied "go 'head, go right on ahead".
"We'll see how many American housewives want to buy Tony The Tiger's Frosted Flakes made in Beijing or Mexico City". Management reconsidered their threat and settled with the union.
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Look again at the article about the Irish Potato Famine.Blondie wrote:ITA that Ukraine's inability to export their wheat will mean price gouging around the globe for available exports. The US and Canada are net exporters of wheat. We import 0 wheat from anyone from what I can find.
...
British farmers in occupied Ireland exported their wheat, to get a better price for it, while their Irish neighbors starved. (A strategy that insured the war would continue for another 100 years, IMHO.)
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-buyers-paying-record-premiums-for-prompt-deliveries-11646518865
Gas is a little over $4 here....
What does everybody else have ??
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You ain't seen nothing yet, prices on everything have been going up, but that's chump change compared to what's coming, just wait and see.
Old joe crow 2.0 is laughing himself to sleep at night, pushing his new green deal.
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https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/oil-and-gas-139-russia-ukraine/2022/03/07/id/1059960/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM308834_&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010124mp4bz7
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Not sure where you get from the article to what you posted (especially since Biden has more than one puppetmaster). As for the article, I don't think Oil will get to $187 this summer (unless they are factoring another 30% inflation), simply because the US (and the world) economy will slow down to match the oil available.rick1 wrote:Before reading the following link, get yourself some tissue so you can wipe your tears. If these predictions hold true, you won't be able to drive or eat and it's all man made, by one moron:
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/oil-and-gas-139-russia-ukraine/2022/03/07/id/1059960/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM308834_&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010124mp4bz7
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Went to the groceries twice in the past two weeks. At one Grocer, there were only two pounds of whole wheat spaghetti on the shelf. I left them for someone who needs them more than I do. At the other grocer, there were six pounds. I took three. Still filling my stockpile, and these three will be on the table in 2024, if nothing gets any worse than it is, today. If the SHTF, we will be eating it 8 months into the collapse, if not sooner.TRex2 wrote:Went to grocer Wed AM.
I am fortunate to live in an area that rarely ever sees shortages, but still, I find a few.
Still No Ramen
Pasta still picked over
Chocolate candy - except for Valentines day packs, which are already thinning out.
canned whole cranberries (may just be out of season)
shoes are hit and miss (but I have all I need for the next year)
Ominus: there were a half dozen shelves up front at WalMart, holding nothing but 24 gallon totes, spread out to take up as much space as possible. Of course, it could be, they are just waiting for the Valentine's day deliveries.
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TRex2 wrote:Not sure where you get from the article to what you posted (especially since Biden has more than one puppetmaster). Â As for the article, I don't think Oil will get to $187 this summer (unless they are factoring another 30% inflation), simply because the US (and the world) economy will slow down to match the oil available.rick1 wrote:Before reading the following link, get yourself some tissue so you can wipe your tears. If these predictions hold true, you won't be able to drive or eat and it's all man made, by one moron:
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/oil-and-gas-139-russia-ukraine/2022/03/07/id/1059960/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM308834_&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010124mp4bz7
Wrong title TRex, met to post this in financial section (inflation).
I'll bet you a donut that oil hits 180.00.barrel by the 4th of July.
I was at the store this morning and saw the butchers pull about half the meat out of the coolers. I asked them what the heck they were doing. They showed me the bill for the meat, they had to increase the price because there was a 900.00 fuel surplus charge for delivery.
I'll talk to ReadyMom and see if I can get a promotion.
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$180 for Brent is quite likely, but $180 for WTI is in that grey area that I would say that I don't think so, but it isn't out of the question.rick1 wrote:...
I'll bet you a donut that oil hits 180.00.barrel by the 4th of July.
I was at the store this morning and saw the butchers pull about half the meat out of the coolers. I asked them what the heck they were doing. They showed me the bill for the meat, they had to increase the price because there was a 900.00 fuel surplus charge for delivery.
I'll talk to ReadyMom and see if I can get a promotion.
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rick1 wrote: I'll talk to ReadyMom and see if I can get a promotion.
No problem. I'll raise you to my pay-grade ....
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From the link:
I don't think many Americans have any idea how badly this will hurt us.Russia's RIA news agency is reporting that the new decree blocks all exports and raw materials from Russia "of certain materials" - with state media reports noting the specific list will be made public in two days.
We have, foolishly, allowed ourselves to become too dependent on Russia.
On all of our enemies, for that matter.
History doesn't repeat, but it often Rhymes (Mark Twain):
1 Samuel 13:19-22 (ESV)
So, in their entire regiment, only two of them were properly armed, since the rest of them had given up their swords to their enemies, the Philistines.19Now there was no blacksmith to be found throughout all the land of Israel, for the Philistines said, “Lest the Hebrews make themselves swords or spears.” 20But every one of the Israelites went down to the Philistines to sharpen his plowshare, his mattock, his axe, or his sickle,
...
22So on the day of the battle there was neither sword nor spear found in the hand of any of the people with Saul and Jonathan, but Saul and Jonathan his son had them.
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I am afraid we are heading for a very dark time
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-signs-countermeasure-decree-limiting-russian-exports-after-bidens-russian-oil-import
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 No, but I did stock up on antibiotics & a couple of other meds, when visiting our son during his soccer playing days down in Texas. He was playing with a team, just outside the border to Mexico. No script needed and no hassle going back over the border.  Got pure vanilla for a song, too!Dave58 wrote:Does anybody use any meds or vitamins that is produced in Russia ???
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-signs-countermeasure-decree-limiting-russian-exports-after-bidens-russian-oil-import
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Wow. Just because Biden has been working on funding the Iranian Nuclear Weapons program?Dave58 wrote:https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430
I am afraid we are heading for a very dark time
I am more concerned about industrial materials. Nickel and Neon will be in short supply pretty soon. I am waiting to see what the entire list looks like.Dave58 wrote:Does anybody use any meds or vitamins that is produced in Russia ???
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-signs-countermeasure-decree-limiting-russian-exports-after-bidens-russian-oil-import
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I had to go to 3 different stores to get tires. One store told me they couldn't put them on because their computer didn't show them for that year jeep and another store told me they couldn't order them at this time... The price would send a brave person into sticker shock.....
Time to start thinking about extra brake pads ,rotors and tune up kits....
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Dave58 wrote:Here's a good one... I run a little bit bigger tire on my jeep from what came out on it from the factory... Its nothing drastic just a couple of inches bigger...
I had to go to 3 different stores to get tires. One store told me they couldn't put them on because their computer didn't show them for that year jeep and another store told me they couldn't order them at this time... The price would send a brave person into sticker shock.....
Time to start thinking about extra brake pads ,rotors and tune up kits....
A good friend of mine's brother own's a tire shop, I got tires for the wife's suv last fall, he told me tires were going up 30%, I had him put new tires on my pickup, didn't need them until this year, put I wasn't going to pay addition 30%.
Now you want to talk about oil and oil products, wait until you buy oil to change oil in your vehicle. The type I use is 6.00/quart now, last year it was 5.00/quart.
Thank you joe crow 2.0 you ____________!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You can fill in the blank with any word/words you want.
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Dave58 wrote:Does anybody use any meds or vitamins that is produced in Russia ???
I have various antibiotics (not the "cyclines" though because they can be toxic when too old) I get fish antibiotics (per Dr Alton M.D. survival medicine books).
We use "natural" remedies for all ailments. Therefore, I have a lot of different essential oils, honey, epsom salts, apple cider vinegar, food sourced vitamins, canabis oil, black salve, turmeric (golden paste), CBD, etc
I am trying to learn more about homeopathy. The bit I have tried has really helped.
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https://www.independent.ie/world-news/asia-pacific/new-china-covid-lockdown-now-threatening-global-supply-chains-41453028.html
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Ironically, I have been hearing that Los Angles port operations has smoothed up, somewhat, from its disastrous failures, last summer and fall.rick1 wrote:China is locking down cities, 10's of millions of people can't work. The supply chain is only getting worse. Hang on to your hats, it's about to blow off:
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/asia-pacific/new-china-covid-lockdown-now-threatening-global-supply-chains-41453028.html
I haven't even tried to research things to any great degree, and found that problems that should have been dealt with as soon as Y2K was out of the way, are only now, being dealt with.
It is like they thought they could manage the system like this was 1977.
(flashback to 1978)
https://1991-new-world-order.fandom.com/wiki/Exercise_Nifty_Nugget/Operation_Nifty_Nugget
In 1978, the American Department of Defense (DoD) staged a worldwide pseudo-armed deployment exercise called, command post Exercise Nifty Nugget. It revealed a general lack of flexibility when multiple transportation modes were required jointly and that the various data processing systems and operational command systems could not function efficiently together.
It also exposed great gaps in understanding between military and civilian participants: mobilization and deployment plans fell apart, and as a result, the United States and its NATO allies "lost the war", especially in Western Europe, Central Europe, the Middle East and Alaska. It predicted a heavy Soviet victory on the basis that the Americans were too busy sxxxxxxg about to even turn up at the battlefield,
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https://www.sourcetoday.com/supply-chain/article/21237900/possible-dock-worker-strike-could-worsen-supply-chain-disruptions
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Some calculations today show that WTI shouldn't break $140 by end of July. Not really good news, but not as bad as we thought.TRex2 wrote:$180 for Brent is quite likely, but $180 for WTI is in that grey area that I would say that I don't think so, but it isn't out of the question.rick1 wrote:...
I'll bet you a donut that oil hits 180.00.barrel by the 4th of July.
I was at the store this morning and saw the butchers pull about half the meat out of the coolers. I asked them what the heck they were doing. They showed me the bill for the meat, they had to increase the price because there was a 900.00 fuel surplus charge for delivery.
I'll talk to ReadyMom and see if I can get a promotion.
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Separate from the video, on the news yesterday, they were interviewing a beef farmer, he said his production is cut by 15% 'cause of the cost of fuel, fertilizer and planting feed for his beef cows:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLoD_5agZPo
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Friendly word of caution
As you may or may not know I work at an international semi truck dealership in iowa
I've heard from several sources lately that in particular 15w40 for diesels is about to be very scarce because there is less oil being refined (which also is causing an aviation fuel supply issue due to paraffin being pulled out of oil in the refinery process which I'm told is a large ingredient in aviation fuel) and because there are only 1 or 2 manufacturers of the additive package that that 15w40 for diesels requires
They won't even be manufacturing those additives for the next 6 months to one year
Wouldn't be a bad idea to pick up what you can afford to while you can find it. 5w40 and 10w30 for diesels won't be affected AS MUCH mostly due to different additive packages used in those oils
As I mentioned with the aviation fuel shortage, that will cause all sorts of logistical havoc as well
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Dave58 wrote:I run across this earlier
Friendly word of caution
As you may or may not know I work at an international semi truck dealership in iowa
I've heard from several sources lately that in particular 15w40 for diesels is about to be very scarce because there is less oil being refined  ....
Wouldn't be a bad idea to pick up what you can afford to while you can find it. 5w40 and 10w30 for diesels won't be affected AS MUCH mostly due to different additive packages used in those oils
As I mentioned with the aviation fuel shortage, that will cause all sorts of logistical havoc as well
Thank you for the warning. Ugh. How much is too much? I don't have unlimited space ... OR finances.
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ReadyMom wrote:Dave58 wrote:I run across this earlier
Friendly word of caution
As you may or may not know I work at an international semi truck dealership in iowa
I've heard from several sources lately that in particular 15w40 for diesels is about to be very scarce because there is less oil being refined  ....
Wouldn't be a bad idea to pick up what you can afford to while you can find it. 5w40 and 10w30 for diesels won't be affected AS MUCH mostly due to different additive packages used in those oils
As I mentioned with the aviation fuel shortage, that will cause all sorts of logistical havoc as well
Thank you for the warning. Ugh. How much is too much? I don't have unlimited space ... OR finances.
I understand what your saying my wife and I feel the same way it all gets so over whelming and a person can only do so much... I am afraid that when the world goes sideways we are going to all need to live differently.... I hope I am not getting to old to learn new tricks
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Dave58 wrote:ReadyMom wrote:Thank you for the warning. Ugh. How much is too much? I don't have unlimited space ... OR finances.
I understand what your saying my wife and I feel the same way it all gets so over whelming and a person can only do so much... I am afraid that when the world goes sideways we are going to all need to live differently.... I hope I am not getting to old to learn new tricks
I believe that whatever we can do to help our families is going to (hopefully) buy us some time to get through the most dangerous times. I used to say 'buy us time to get through the worst of it', but I don't know if that's true.
The 'worst of it' might just be the middle-end of that kind of event. Now, to me, the  beginning is most dangerous time , when people are scared, hungry and realize what's happening and will go to all lengths to get what they want. LOTS of people. As things calm down to a 'new normal', although it probably won't be good ... it won't be the worst part ... just a really had part till the end, but probably with less people  .
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Also, in the next town over from us (about 4 miles), two people have been shot (shotgun) cause of breaking into peoples garages and stealing gas from the vehicles.
No charges were filed as the garages are attached to the homes, so they classify it as a home invasion.
Things are going to get tough, so ya got to stay tuff.
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rick1 wrote:It's already getting a little worse in my area. People are shoplifting at the local grocery stores, the 2 stores has since put in armed security guards at the exits and the people leaving with groceries have to produce a receipt.
Also, in the next town over from us (about 4 miles), two people have been shot (shotgun) cause of breaking into peoples garages and stealing gas from the vehicles.
No charges were filed as the garages are attached to the homes, so they classify it as a home invasion.
Things are going to get tough, so ya got to stay tuff.
I keep everything locked up. I am going to get locking gas caps tomorrow..... I carry everywhere I go....
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U.S. Foods is a major company on the east coast, the unions now have the upper hand to get what they want, all because of the supply chain crisis. That not only means here on the east coast, but very where in the U.S. and any company.
With this supply chain crisis, all the unions and even the non union workers have the upper hand to get what they want, not what they need.
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There's a tampon shortage in the US. Here's what you need to know.
https://news.yahoo.com/theres-tampon-shortage-us-heres-205108065.html
The exact reasons for the shortage are hard to identify. Companies that produce tampons are pointing to supply-chain issues as well as increased consumer demand.
You can find a thread on making your own feminine products here: Â Sanitary Pads
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I generally make it a habit to have enough oil, for my next oil change, on hand.ReadyMom wrote:Thank you for the warning. Ugh. How much is too much? I don't have unlimited space ... OR finances.
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Since the middle of the 90's, I have been saying that people, if they aren't recovering from a disaster should be preparing for one. That was my early beginning of disaster preparedness.ReadyMom wrote:...
I believe that whatever we can do to help our families is going to (hopefully) buy us some time to get through the most dangerous times. I used to say 'buy us time to get through the worst of it', but I don't know if that's true.
...
I think we have moved to a new phase, when one disaster will lead to another, so that, instead of things getting better or worse, we will simply move from one thing being a problem, to another.
From pandemic, to shortages, to violence, to ... to ... well, let's just say there won't be any "normal" to get back to. Learn to roll with the punches.
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TRex2 wrote:I generally make it a habit to have enough oil, for my next oil change, on hand.ReadyMom wrote:Thank you for the warning. Ugh. How much is too much? I don't have unlimited space ... OR finances.
As a general rule I keep around 12 gal of oil and extra filters
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Can't say too much about the additives, but I just did a scan (a few dozen articles) and found two things: we are already deep into the shortage of engine oil, in general, and the paraffin thing is the other way around. Reduction in Air Travel has reduced the paraffin consumption, and that has caused the refineries to reduce engine oil production (since they don't have the secondary market, at this time).Dave58 wrote:I run across this earlier
Friendly word of caution
As you may or may not know I work at an international semi truck dealership in iowa
I've heard from several sources lately that in particular 15w40 for diesels is about to be very scarce because there is less oil being refined (which also is causing an aviation fuel supply issue due to paraffin being pulled out of oil in the refinery process which I'm told is a large ingredient in aviation fuel) and because there are only 1 or 2 manufacturers of the additive package that that 15w40 for diesels requires
They won't even be manufacturing those additives for the next 6 months to one year
Wouldn't be a bad idea to pick up what you can afford to while you can find it. 5w40 and 10w30 for diesels won't be affected AS MUCH mostly due to different additive packages used in those oils
As I mentioned with the aviation fuel shortage, that will cause all sorts of logistical havoc as well
Sounds like we may have one of those "vicious circle" cycles going.
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If you use 12 gal a year, that is perfectly reasonable.Dave58 wrote:TRex2 wrote:I generally make it a habit to have enough oil, for my next oil change, on hand.ReadyMom wrote:Thank you for the warning. Ugh. How much is too much? I don't have unlimited space ... OR finances.
As a general rule I keep around 12 gal of oil and extra filters
If you use less than that, it is still understandable.
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
https://flatlandkc.org/news-issues/western-kansas-wheat-crops-are-failing-just-when-the-world-needs-them-most/
Across western Kansas, many fields planted with wheat months ago now look like barren wastelands. The gaping spaces between rows of brown, shriveled plants reveal hardened dirt that’s scarred with deep cracks from baking in the sun.
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
My wife is a baker and we keep flour and wheat berries and store them in 3 gal buckets that we bought from the local bakery....
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
This might be something to plan for..
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10918203/Emergency-declared-Texas-city-WATER-Brutal-heat-dome-settles-Midwest-south.html
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
Dave58 wrote:If you bake you better store lots of flour..
My wife is a baker and we keep flour and wheat berries and store them in 3 gal buckets that we bought from the local bakery....
And if you don't bake NOW ... my guess is you WILL be baking in the future.
Bread. Rolls. Flat breads. Cakes. Pancakes. Waffles. Pizza crusts. No wheat = none of those things in the stores, either. OR available at an outrageous price.
Practice now. (I'm going to have to. I'm very lazy and just all those things buy from the store. )
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
ReadyMom wrote:Dave58 wrote:If you bake you better store lots of flour..
My wife is a baker and we keep flour and wheat berries and store them in 3 gal buckets that we bought from the local bakery....
And if you don't bake NOW ... my guess is you WILL be baking in the future.
Bread. Rolls. Flat breads. Cakes. Pancakes. Waffles. Pizza crusts. No wheat = none of those things in the stores, either. OR available at an outrageous price.
Practice now. (I'm going to have to. I'm very lazy and just all those things buy from the store. )
My wife has a book called Flour,Water,Salt,Yeast The author is Ken Porkish it has some really simple bread recipes
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-06-16/abbott-infant-formula-plant-closed-again-after-flooding
After the plant is re-sanitized, Abbott said it will resume making EleCare, followed by specialty and metabolic formulas, and will "work to restart Similac production at the plant as soon as possible."
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
rick1 wrote:If it ain't crow bait joe, it's mother nature, can't get ahead and the sad thing about all of this is, it's going to get ALOT worse. I don't know about you guys, but I'm tired of being on !!!!!!!!
I used to be proud of this country we had our problems but our government at least tried to help solve them...
What do say when people enter the country " Welcome to America we can't manage to feed our children other than that its not to bad".....
When folks can't find anything to feed their babies they will start behaving badly its just a matter of time.....
Tick-Tock
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
https://abcnews.go.com/US/thousands-cattle-dead-amid-continuing-heat-wave/story?id=85434516
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
I have about 6 months of peanut butter and about 2 years of peanut butter powder, but, if crow bait joe shuts my water off, I'll be screwed........
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
The bad news is, this seems to have affected at least 4 months production at one factory.rick1 wrote:
I have about 6 months of peanut butter and about 2 years of peanut butter powder, but, if crow bait joe shuts my water off, I'll be screwed........
The good news is, there are other factories.
(So far, I have found at least 4, 40oz jars, in my stores.)
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
rick1 wrote:Thousands of cattle die from heat wave, beef will be going up, again, if many more die from this heat wave:
https://abcnews.go.com/US/thousands-cattle-dead-amid-continuing-heat-wave/story?id=85434516
Originally they said that the heat wave killed all these cattle and all at once. Seems NASA says otherwise, I know nothing about magnetosphere rifts that kill animals on earth. But, if this is the case, we'll all be vegans before too long.
TREX, YOU'RE SMARTER THEN ME, WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THIS, WE ALL NEED TO KNOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://miamistandard.news/2022/06/17/cattle-deaths-explained-nasa-warns-of-deadly-magnetosphere-rifts-that-allow-intense-solar-radiation-to-wipe-out-large-numbers-of-animals-on-earth/
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/hot-sauce-tampon-shortages
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
https://parade.com/1332615/jessicasager/food-shortages-2022/
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
This is something I hadn't heard of, either.rick1 wrote:...
Originally they said that the heat wave killed all these cattle and all at once. Seems NASA says otherwise, I know nothing about magnetosphere rifts that kill animals on earth. But, if this is the case, we'll all be vegans before too long.
TREX, YOU'RE SMARTER THEN ME, WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THIS, WE ALL NEED TO KNOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
...
So, I looked into it. From the links, I didn't see anything of reputable sources, and that concerned me. I followed up on the resources they give, to see of they trace back to reliable sources.
Nope.
Just a conspiracy theory nut.
Truth is, we had a heck of a heat wave. Cattle take time to adapt to hot temperatures, and this didn't give them any time. Basically it was like they were wearing their winter coats, and this didn't give them time to shed.
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Re: Supply Chain Observations and Questions
rick1 wrote:Here's a list of potential items that may become a shortage here in the great U.S., toilet paper again.
https://parade.com/1332615/jessicasager/food-shortages-2022/
The article is good, as far as it goes:
could we get her to write a monthly update?
(Things are moving fast, these days.)
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