Supply Chain Observations and Questions

Dave58 wrote:How long before this hits here ????

Any thoughts ??

https://youtu.be/9ag7fOthBM8

At least a couple years, but how long after that, I can only guess.
Most people on the Left consider government to be god,
so, as the country grows progressively more Marxist, we can
be sure they will eventually go that route.

Hopefully, after I am gone.

If you read all the way through "One Second After" you find out that the missiles that were used to take us down were fired from cargo ship containers, or something similar.

For what it's worth at work I'm not seeing much improvement yet. In fact in Some ways things have slowed "slightly" as this is traditionally the slowest month of the year, while other regions are incredibly busy. Like unprecedented.

A major region out west is now curtailed to a 50% allocation force majeure due to supply chain production and distribution disruptions and inability to keep up with customer demands. This means we are only able to supply 50% of what the customer used over the previous 60 days on average. It's the lowest allocation% I've ever seen doing this.

This affects major nationally known companies that are steel producers, semiconductor manufacturers, food producers, beverage producers, oil refineries, chemical producers, etc...  Major fortune 500 corporation household brands are not able to produce as much as they want. Let that sink in. That means their products don't be get sold to and used by other companies in their products or they are not as available for end use purchasing consumers to buy and use.

Things are not ok.

If there are anymore major lockdowns due to this new variant I have serious fears over what happens next and if the supply chain will be terminaly damaged.  If there is any sort of new extended lockdown I fear it could trigger a cascading failure.

Well, I have heard that lockdowns are off the table.

The next step in this craziness seems to be the fed, realizing they were wrong about "transitory" inflation, is planning on inducing a recession.

Personally I can't see that happening, but that is what the fed seems to be signaling.

Dave58 wrote:How long before this hits here ????

Any thoughts ??

https://youtu.be/9ag7fOthBM8

Blocking access to food and medicine? I doubt it would ever happen.

Even Germany is still giving unvaccinated folks access to food and medicine despite making vaccination mandatory:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-impose-restrictions-unvaccinated-break-covid-surge-2021-12-02/

BERLIN, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Germany on Thursday imposed restrictions on the unvaccinated as it sought to break a dramatic surge in daily coronavirus infections exacerbated by the discovery of the Omicron strain.

Outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel and her successor Olaf Scholz agreed with leaders of Germany's 16 states to bar the unvaccinated from access to all but the most essential businesses such as grocery stores, pharmacies and bakeries.

snip

Plenty more at link above.

BERLIN, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Germany on Thursday imposed restrictions on the unvaccinated as it sought to break a dramatic surge in daily coronavirus infections exacerbated by the discovery of the Omicron strain.

What is ironic, and darkly humorous, is that once the virus has done some spreading and most of the people are "fully vaccinated" most of the new cases will being spread by the vaccinated. The reason being, that unvaccinated people tend to get sick and stay home, while the vaccinated get an asymptomatic infection, and continue to spread it. Even more important, once a person has had the virus, they almost never get it again, and therefore can no longer spread it.

So, in most parts of the US, and some parts of other countries, most of the new cases are being spread by fully vaccinated people, who believe they are "safe." Restricting the unvaccinated will probably help spread the virus even more.

(This should probably go in the R0 thread, but it answers what is happening here.)

We were all wrong about the supply chain, it never happened.

Yep, corn pop said today that it never happened. This   needs to see a skull doctor.

https://ijr.com/biden-says-supply-chain-crisis-didnt-occur/

rick1 wrote:We were all wrong about the supply chain, it never happened.

Yep, corn pop said today that it never happened. This   needs to see a skull doctor.

https://ijr.com/biden-says-supply-chain-crisis-didnt-occur/

I keep thinking the cheese slid off that cracker a long time ago

rick1 wrote:We were all wrong about the supply chain, it never happened.

Yep, corn pop said today that it never happened. This   needs to see a skull doctor.

https://ijr.com/biden-says-supply-chain-crisis-didnt-occur/

The poor confused old man has no idea where he is or what's going on. It's really sad.

I can't believe this is our country.

rick1 wrote:We were all wrong about the supply chain, it never happened.

Yep, corn pop said today that it never happened. This   needs to see a skull doctor.

https://ijr.com/biden-says-supply-chain-crisis-didnt-occur/

Some people may have trouble with that link.
Here is an alternate link:
https://nypost.com/2021/12/01/biden-likens-holiday-supply-shortage-to-past-christmas-toy-fads/

Good to know we don't have nearly 100 ships off the coast of Southern Cali, and that all of the containers are moving without delays. All of those ships must be a mirage. (Check out the photo at the top of the linked page.

https://nypost.com/2021/12/10/ships-bound-for-backlogged-california-ports-forced-out-to-sea-report/

Backlogged container ships stranded off of the coast of southern California waiting for their chance to enter port have been moving farther out to sea due to safety concerns brought on by poor winter weather conditions, satellite images show.

Only about 30 ships were within view of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the two largest ports in the country, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, while over 60 others were forced farther out to sea amid high winds and rough seas.

Some are hundreds or even thousands of miles away, including vessels incoming from Asia that have reduced their speed in anticipation of delays, The Journal said. The ships are complying with a voluntary system put in place by shipping officials last month ahead of inclement weather conditions in the winter that pose a safety hazard, the paper said.

Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California that oversees ship movements in the area, told The Journal that “Container ships are very tall and blow around a lot in the wind.”

“The numbers were not going down, so therefore we needed to find a way to spread the ships out,” he said.

I was wondering what happened to all the container ships now that our pres has saved us

Dave58 wrote:I was wondering what happened to all the container ships now that our pres has saved us

Besides them moving out to sea 'cause of the weather, the kilfornia Gov., told them that they were polluting the air in the area.

rick1 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:I was wondering what happened to all the container ships now that our pres has saved us

Besides them moving out to sea 'cause of the weather, the kilfornia Gov., told them that they were polluting the air in the area.

Well, oddly enough, there is some truth to that. I know it is surprising to hear some truth come out of the Kalifornia Government, but the fuel burned by container ships while on the ocean is the cheapest, and about the dirtiest fuel that can be burned.
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/plattscontent/_assets/_files/en/our-methodology/methodology-specifications/global-bunker-fuels.pdf
In December, sometimes the wind blows from where those ships are, directly across Southern CA.

The only good part of this, that I can see, is they have begun to modernized port operations, which appear to me, to be stuck in the 80's.

Meat and egg shortage coming soon 'cause of the virus, no workers. Eggs here at home are $2.50 a dozen and my chickens aren't laying well (too cold).

I went to dollar general on Saturday to get a few things the wife needed. She said to pick up some toilet paper, I told her there was 1200 rolls up above the ceiling in the garage.

So anyway, I checked out the toilet paper at the store, bare shelves, none. No paper towels or napkins either. I asked the clerk at check out and he said they ordered everything, but none came in and it's not on back order.

I guess you'd better stock up if your store has any.


https://www.archyde.com/meat-and-egg-shortage-fears-after-stores-reported-empty-shelves-in-the-us/

We have a new twitter tag:

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/01/10/shoppers-get-bareshelvesbiden-trending-document-sparse-grocery-stores-twitter/

The hashtag #BareShelvesBiden has been making the rounds on Twitter as shoppers use the slogan when posting pictures of empty and sparse grocery store shelves to the social media site.

Images of barren shelves were shared by Americans far and wide, including media members, politicians, and other shoppers as they feel the effects of supply chain issues and labor shortages under the Biden administration.

How long do you think it will be, before Twitter bans pictures of bare shelve, especially when juxtaposed with Biden or a picture of him?

We haven't talked much, among ourselves, about what things seem to be in short supply, for about the past 5 months.

There are hundreds of "please panic so I can get more clicks" videos on youtube, but the thing they lack is something to tell where and when the video was taken.

Personally, my area isn't short on too many things:
canning lids (of course)
canning jars
ramen
pasta
canned cranberries (may just be out of season)
shoes are hit and miss (but I have all I need for the next year)

Of course, this is invisible to the one out of six (wild a.. guess) that never go into a grocer, but get groceries delivered.

ReadyMom wrote:Our local Aldi's (Central PA, Harrisburg area)frozen section
(snipped image)

I had to go to a 2nd location to get what I wanted and that was nearly wiped out, as well. I was replacing what was used in our freezer plus our daughter sometimes 'shops' at our house, on her way home from work.   Aldi's has GREAT food items and is def cheaper than 'regular' grocery stores, SO I don't go to those grocers as much as before. So, not sure what's in stock there.

Big 'nor-easter is comng so maybe that comes in to play, as well.

I didn't look today, but a few days ago, our freezer section didn't look that bad, but that is about how our pasta section looked Wed, and Today.

Paper plates and bowls have been hit or miss the past two months.
Today couldn’t get ramen at the wholesale club. They had noodle bowls and cup of soup, but not the ramen packets. And there weren’t much at the local markets for ramen either.

Hopefully it’s a temporary thing or I’ll be doing more pasta than soups for a while….

Went to grocer Wed AM.

I am fortunate to live in an area that rarely ever sees shortages, but still, I find a few.

Still No Ramen
Pasta still picked over

Chocolate candy - except for Valentines day packs, which are already thinning out.

canned whole cranberries (may just be out of season)
shoes are hit and miss (but I have all I need for the next year)

Ominus: there were a half dozen shelves up front at WalMart, holding nothing but 24 gallon totes, spread out to take up as much space as possible. Of course, it could be, they are just waiting for the Valentine's day deliveries.

Midwest here:

We seem to rotate what we're short on - it seems to take about 3 weeks to get shelves refilled on some things:

Canned fruit
TP
Ramen
Canned biscuits/crescent rolls/cinnamon rolls
Dairy seems to be very light
Eggs

The deli/bread section at our Walmart is rearranging stuff to look as if they're not out, but our favorite sandwich rolls have not been there for some time. When they finally appeared, there were only 2 packages. Yeah, I can bake bread and most likely will when the time comes. For now, I don't want to use my LTS.

In an interesting aside - Down the road from us, several properties have sold to someone who is building huge chicken houses - we're told that the owners will be raising chickens for Tyson. We're watching it unfold. The largest chicken house is almost done.

Also - because we're going out every day for medical treatment to another town, I've been taking scenic routes in our area. Roads I've not been on in some time. Cleared land, new building, and new campers are all over the place. These are areas that have been wild/forested for the entire time I've lived here. Suddenly, little patches of acreage I didn't even know belonged to anyone are being cleared and settled upon. We're speculating city people who either have been evicted for not paying mortgage/rent due to lockdown/losing jobs, or folks who are waking up.

I just got back from the grocery and the had a lot of empty shelves and lots of empty spots with little blue tags that says sorry unavailable at this time..

I talked with the store manager and they told me that they don't know when they will get a truck its hit and miss and they don't know what will be on it....

On a side note I was at the cancer treatment center with my wife and one of the nurses told us that they were struggling with supplies. They were out of the butterfly needles used for IV's and out of some of the syringes and very low on rubber gloves also they were low on disposable lab coats.. Some of the Chemo drugs are very toxic and they have to use the coats....

Better stack your supplies to the ceiling if you can get them...

Stay Safe Folks

Currently the U.S. is short 80,000 truck drivers, if the white house clown enforces the vaccine mandate, another 2.5 million truck drivers say they will quit. This article is from November 2021.

The news today said the truck drivers will strike first and if that doesn't change the head clown's mind, they say they will quit. Now that will be a supply chain issue:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/2-5-million-truckers-say-theyll-quit-over-vaccine-mandate-industry-warns-biden

OK, went down to the store last evening to buy some lettuce, was talking to my buddy (butcher) who cuts up my beef when I sell some.

He said, if you want any fish, buy it now. Fish is going to go up another $2.00/pound in the coming weeks. He said by lent, there will be no fish to buy.

The store has 5 vendors that they buy from and all of them told the manager not to expect any fish come around lent time. I found this on the net:

https://www.supermarketnews.com/archive/short-supply-spurs-frozen-fish-buying

P.S. We bought 40 pound of frozen haddock at $4.99/pound and 20 pounds of beer battered fish fillets at $4.99 for a 1lb/3.1oz box.

Dave58 wrote:On a side note I was at the cancer treatment center with my wife and one of the nurses told us that they were struggling with supplies. They were out of the butterfly needles used for IV's and out of some of the syringes and very low on rubber gloves also they were low on disposable lab coats.. Some of the Chemo drugs are very toxic and they have to use the coats....

Better stack your supplies to the ceiling if you can get them...

Stay Safe Folks

Yes - this is the same at our cancer center AND our ER - they are out of the same stuff. My sister is now in the radiation phase, so she doesn't need that stuff anymore. But for the ER to be out...scary.

I have a pretty comprehensive first aid kit with plenty of spare stuff, but I might just invest in more.

One thing with Ebola back in the day...I think we talked of it before. A nurse in one of the African nations had to fight off Ebola for 5 members of her family on her own. She gowned herself in doubled garbage bags to treat everyone. She only lost one family member and was never infected herself. She was religious about the protocol, covering herself in multiple bags and removing them before moving on to the next patient.

I mention this because news is coming from China that one province is experiencing hemorrhagic fever (Ebola-like), and since Olympic athletes are there right now, the disease could be spread world-wide...they initially said that's how Covid got loose - the initial spread was from athletes who were in China for a world competition.

Cinnamon wrote:...
I have a pretty comprehensive first aid kit with plenty of spare stuff, but I might just invest in more.
...

Thanks for the good intel.
Keep adding a little at a time.

I mention this because news is coming from China that one province is experiencing hemorrhagic fever (Ebola-like), and since Olympic athletes are there right now, the disease could be spread world-wide...they initially said that's how Covid got loose - the initial spread was from athletes who were in China for a world competition.

No, it isn't how Covid got loose, that was a cover for what China (deliberately) did. But it could be how Hemorrhagic fever gets spread.

Oh, I know that's not how Covid got loose, but when it was initially reported, China blamed it on that world competition, on US military visiting the area, and a host of other excuses.

In the meantime, more comes out each day showing Fauci and friends were complicit in the whole mess.

On the computer side of the supply chain, things aren't getting better quickly....and could easily go south in a big way

from https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/01/fabs-stretched-thin-as-chip-shortage-shrinks-inventories-to-just-5-days/

Fabs stretched thin as chip shortage shrinks inventories to just 5 days
Relief appears to be months, if not years, away.

US chip supplies are close to the breaking point as a new survey reveals diminished inventories and overstretched fabs.

The numbers put the chip shortage in stark relief. In 2021, companies that purchase semiconductors had less than five days of inventory on hand as opposed to the 40 days of inventory they had in 2019, according to a survey of more than 150 companies conducted by the US Department of Commerce. At the same time, demand was up 17 percent. Many of the companies surveyed said that demand exceeded their internal forecasts.

And one of the commenters on the article works in the industry and shared this:

I work in consumer electronics. This isn't just about the big chips for CPUs and GPUs. Anything that uses silicon has parts shortages. From little IR sensors, PWM driver circuits, to rum-dum surface mount voltage regulators made by the tens of millions each year that sell for pennies each at large quantity.

Basically every month for the past year, the factory tells us something like, "We are x weeks away from halting the production line until we get a replacement for part y". They are generally able to source these replacements in time, but then we have to first test them in a limited run to ensure they don't break shit. It's firmly in the "never seen anything like this before" type of crazy town we are in.

Then add in that shipping costs are through the roof and costs for plastic resin are up significantly. It's only a matter of time before we have to start raising retail prices on some stuff, which is NOT going to go over well considering demand for our products still outstrips our ability to make them.

If this whole thing has shown me anything, it's that China doing anything to mess with Taiwan would be a disaster for the entire world. The chances of them getting all of those fabs intact in any sort of military take over are slim and the interconnected supply chains of basically everything to China, Taiwan, and the rest of the world means nobody gets CPUs, GPUs, consumer electronics, and even cars for a good 4-5 years.

Edit: Also forgot to add: internally, we were predicting early/mid 2023 for things to get back to some semblance of normal. Sorry for you guys looking to buy Playstations and video cards :/

Red highlighting is mine.

So if you have any small electronics or appliances that are getting old and might need replacement, this would be a good time to get that replacement or plan on how to live without it for a few years....just in case.

dmwalsh568 wrote:On the computer side of the supply chain, things aren't getting better quickly....and could easily go south in a big way

Yep. Welcome to the 21st century.
We have known for quite a while, the supply chain is off the rails and won't get better for at least another year.

Things going south (or, sometimes, sideways) is why we are preppers, isn't it?

It's firmly in the "never seen anything like this before" type of crazy town we are in.

I think this is about the fourth person I have heard say something like that.

It's only a matter of time before we have to start raising retail prices on some stuff, which is NOT going to go over well considering demand for our products still outstrips our ability to make them.

Must be written by an engineer. Knows nothing about economics. If demand is up, you raise your price. Supply short: raise your price.

Standard supply and demand economics.

So if you have any small electronics or appliances that are getting old and might need replacement, this would be a good time to get that replacement or plan on how to live without it for a few years....just in case.

I need to get off my rump and replace a few electronics. I am using stuff that is a year or two past the end of its commercial life expectancy. (But then, I ran DOS until no one could remember what it was.)

https://www.rt.com/news/547950-fertilizer-plant-fire-north-carolina/

The price is going to keep growing

Dave58 wrote:https://www.rt.com/news/547950-fertilizer-plant-fire-north-carolina/

The price is going to keep growing

Yep, on everything.

The Canadian truckers that are on strike say they won't quit and they plan on a drive/march, along with U.S. truckers, and head to D.C. over the mandatory vaccine. This will put a crunch are prices, supply and demand.

Growing season is just around the corner and we plan on planting a little more stuff, not for us, but for the kids.

rick1 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:https://www.rt.com/news/547950-fertilizer-plant-fire-north-carolina/
The price is going to keep growing

Yep, on everything.
The Canadian truckers that are on strike say they won't quit and they plan on a drive/march, along with U.S. truckers, and head to D.C. over the mandatory vaccine. This will put a crunch are prices, supply and demand.
Growing season is just around the corner and we plan on planting a little more stuff, not for us, but for the kids.

There wasn't any market analysis of the impact, in the fertilizer news this morning.

TRex2 wrote:We haven't talked much, among ourselves, about what things seem to be in short supply, for about the past 5 months.

There are hundreds of "please panic so I can get more clicks" videos on youtube, but the thing they lack is something to tell where and when the video was taken.

Personally, my area isn't short on too many things:
canning lids (of course)
canning jars
ramen
pasta
canned cranberries (may just be out of season)
shoes are hit and miss (but I have all I need for the next year)

Of course, this is invisible to the one out of six (wild a.. guess) that never go into a grocer, but get groceries delivered.

Ramen is still in short supply, shoes are still hit and miss.

But we have canning lids. Kinda pricey, but they are there.
About 30 cents a lid for wide mouth ball jar lids.

Jars have been fairly plentiful since about the day after I wrote that they were short.

Seems all our grocery stores are pretty much stocked up, just pricey.

The only stores that seem to be short on items is the dollar general stores, paper products, juices, OTC's, some cans of soda but they have the 2 liter bottles. Everything else is pretty good.

Haven't been to walmart in a couple of weeks, may head up there this weekend.

Just found out there is a pet food shortage in Texas.

https://ktemnews.com/now-what-texas-is-dealing-with-a-pet-food-shortage/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=KTEM-AM%20WEEKENDS%202022-02-12&utm_term=KTEM-AM%20Smart%20List

Between supply chain issues and inflation, feeding our pets has become costly. According to the Wall Street Journal, the pandemic led to more pet adoptions across the country, which in return lead to pet owners buying more pet food. Sales of pet food jumped 6.9% in 2021.
...
Winter Storm Landon
xxxxxx xxxxxx didn't help either. With the massive winter storm rolling through much of the U.S. including Texas, people raided the grocery stores. "Panic buying" once again wiped out store shelves of everyday supplies as people were stocking up and preparing for the worst.

Ramen is finally coming back in stock around here. Supermarkets have a bunch and at least two pallets were at the wholesale club. So I got two cases of 48 each just to tide me over until the next shortage.

But if the ball goes up in Ukraine I'll make a quick trip to the wholesale club to stock up more.

Dave58 wrote:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/100-oil-threatens-compound-world-211750831.html

They say inflation could hit 7%, heck, it's already at 7.5%. They say that inflation could raise .5% by the end of the quarter, heck, it's raising .5% a month.

The fed is a day late and a dollar short, they should have started raising rates back in December and not to wait until March. Seems they have way too many PHD's after their names.

What a bunch of 's

rick1 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/100-oil-threatens-compound-world-211750831.html

They say inflation could hit 7%, heck, it's already at 7.5%. They say that inflation could raise .5% by the end of the quarter, heck, it's raising .5% a month.
The fed is a day late and a dollar short, they should have started raising rates back in December and not to wait until March. Seems they have way too many PHD's after their names.
What a bunch of 's

Between them and the government handouts, they have painted themselves into a corner. The Government gave away a couple trillion dollars, some to us, and a lot to Big Pharma (to develop vaccines and treatments). Even gave a bunch to other countries, to fight the good fight

They also paid people too much, for too long, not to work.
And now, people don't want to go back to work.

If they raise interest rates now, they will dump the economy into a recession.
And we might still have inflation, during the recession.

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/bayer-warns-more-glyphosate-shortages-heres-how-severe-situation-could...

I don't have a very big garden.. I bought my fertilizer last year that I would need this year and the hardware store I bought it from said it had tripled in price since I bought it...

Well, expect another dollar added to the price of gas, for May, and another dollar, after that, for May 2023. Not an absolute, but a good planning guide.

And it affects everything else. A 20% rise in oil means a %20 rise in fertilizer, and 20% rise in price for electricity, for transportation, 20% rise in wages (in a vain attempt to keep up), resulting in another 20% increase in prices, including oil. We are now in an inflation spiral.

The "Fed" is planning to raise interest rates, in an attempt to prevent the spiral, but that will put us into a recession. Things are so messed up, right now, we could easily have inflation, while in a recession. (Like the Carter era: but it could be worse, this time.)

When I was adding last minute preps on Thursday (hours after Russia invaded Ukraine) I noticed that the cracker aisle was the latest casualty of the supply chain issues....no saltines or even soup crackers! Sure, they had Cheez-It and Ritz crackers, but nothing plain. Even the warehouse club was out of saltines! I finally found a box of saltines at a convenience store, but looks like we're still having disruptions and that's before any direct fallout from the Ukraine war.

dmwalsh568 wrote:When I was adding last minute preps on Thursday (hours after Russia invaded Ukraine) I noticed that the cracker aisle was the latest casualty of the supply chain issues....no saltines or even soup crackers! Sure, they had Cheez-It and Ritz crackers, but nothing plain. Even the warehouse club was out of saltines! I finally found a box of saltines at a convenience store, but looks like we're still having disruptions and that's before any direct fallout from the Ukraine war.

Just guessing, I would say that someone that knew saltines last longer than bread got there before you did.

TRex2 wrote:

dmwalsh568 wrote:When I was adding last minute preps on Thursday (hours after Russia invaded Ukraine) I noticed that the cracker aisle was the latest casualty of the supply chain issues....no saltines or even soup crackers! Sure, they had Cheez-It and Ritz crackers, but nothing plain. Even the warehouse club was out of saltines! I finally found a box of saltines at a convenience store, but looks like we're still having disruptions and that's before any direct fallout from the Ukraine war.

Just guessing, I would say that someone that knew saltines last longer than bread got there before you did.

Possible, but at both the market and the wholesale club the space they normally occupy was filled with other product. Not as deep as in the good old pre-COVID days, but nonetheless the staff hadn't had time to fill in the slots before I got to the stores.... So I'll stick with my original guess.

Crackers you say?

https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/recipes/sourdough-crackers-recipe

While King Arthur gets a little fancy, they do test their recipes.

Buy ingredients when you can.
Flour, sugar, salt and leavening can make pancakes, biscuits, bread, dumplings, cake, etc.

TRex2 wrote:...
This was on the regular Bloomberg website (might be the same thing):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-02/chinese-warning-to-stock-food-causes-worried-online-chatter

A statement from China’s government urging local authorities to ensure there was adequate food supply during the winter and encouraging people to stock up on some essentials prompted concerned talk online, with people linking it with the widening coronavirus outbreak, a forecast cold snap, or even rising tensions with Taiwan.

The Ministry of Commerce urged local authorities to stabilize prices and ensure supplies of daily necessities including vegetables this winter and next spring, according to a statement Monday evening. Chinese households were also encouraged to stock up on a certain amount of daily necessities in preparation for the winter months or emergencies.

Was wondering when the last time we discussed world wide food shortages, and it turns out we hadn't really discussed them, since Nov.

Now they are coming back in the news, but slowly:
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/

FAO’s forecast for world trade in cereals in 2021/22 has been raised month-on-month to 484 million tonnes, up 2.7 million tonnes from the previous forecast and 0.9 percent (4.5 million tonnes) above the 2020/21 level. This forecast does not yet assume potential impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on trade flows from Ukraine and the Russian Federation. For the remainder of the 2021/22 season (March 1 – June 30), Ukraine is forecast to export approximately 6 million tonnes of wheat and 16 million tonnes of maize, while the Russian Federation is forecast to export approximately 8 million tonnes of wheat and 2.5 million tonnes of maize. FAO is closely monitoring the developments and will assess the impacts on the 2021/22 global cereal trade in due course.

These guys track availability of grains, world wide. I don't know if there is any sort of archive of what they forecast in the past, so I tend to post their stuff, here and there (so that we will remember).[/quote]

Looking at the above paragraphs (especially the one about China stocking up), I have to wonder if China knew about the war in Ukraine, as far back as last October. (Edit to add: I just looked an we were discussing the high probability of a Russian invasion into Ukraine, as far back as last April.)

No matter, now we know. Even though the world seems to still be in a bit of a slumber, about the shortages coming up, the prepping community, as well as most of the management personnel in the food industry: we know.

FAO says they are still studying the impact of the war in Ukraine, on Ukrainian and Russian grain exports. Well the easy answer is this: there will be no exports (except, maybe to China and N.Korea).

That means the world will be about 42 MMt short on supply. Since the total stockpiles are about 830-840 MMt, a this loss equals about 5% of total stockpiles.

This doesn't put us into famine territory, yet, but it does move us to the edge of the "shortages will impact prices" zone. The current market panics are not based on actual shortages, but what may happen in the future (fertilizer shortages are also on the horizon), as well as threats of price hikes due to energy costs.

The Russia/Ukraine war threatens food supply, wheat up 55% since the Russian invasion:

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-ukraine-war-wheat/2022/03/06/id/1059840/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM309303_03062022&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010502g7nlq4

rick1 wrote:The Russia/Ukraine war threatens food supply, wheat up 55% since the Russian invasion:
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-ukraine-war-wheat/2022/03/06/id/1059840/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM309303_03062022&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010502g7nlq4

Like a stone thrown into a pond,
(from the link)

A prolonged conflict would have a big impact some 1,500 miles (2,400 kilometers) away in Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer.

As you travel further, the war has less impact, and the impact takes longer, but in the end, everybody will feel the impact.

ITA that Ukraine's inability to export their wheat will mean price gouging around the globe for available exports. The US and Canada are net exporters of wheat. We import 0 wheat from anyone from what I can find.

On a more local note, when Kellogg's factory workers went on strike in Battle Creek MI and 2 other locations, management immediately went on their rant about "we'll export your jobs to China, or, or Mexico!!!".... to which their union replied "go 'head, go right on ahead".

"We'll see how many American housewives want to buy Tony The Tiger's Frosted Flakes made in Beijing or Mexico City". Management reconsidered their threat and settled with the union.

Blondie wrote:ITA that Ukraine's inability to export their wheat will mean price gouging around the globe for available exports. The US and Canada are net exporters of wheat. We import 0 wheat from anyone from what I can find.
...

Look again at the article about the Irish Potato Famine.
British farmers in occupied Ireland exported their wheat, to get a better price for it, while their Irish neighbors starved. (A strategy that insured the war would continue for another 100 years, IMHO.)

This is going to sting quite a bit...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-buyers-paying-record-premiums-for-prompt-deliveries-11646518865

Gas is a little over $4 here....

What does everybody else have ??

Gas here is $4.299/gallon, heating oil is $4.399/gallon and diesel is $5.199/gallon.

You ain't seen nothing yet, prices on everything have been going up, but that's chump change compared to what's coming, just wait and see.

Old joe crow 2.0 is laughing himself to sleep at night, pushing his new green deal.

Before reading the following link, get yourself some tissue so you can wipe your tears. If these predictions hold true, you won't be able to drive or eat and it's all man made, by one moron:

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/oil-and-gas-139-russia-ukraine/2022/03/07/id/1059960/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM308834_&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010124mp4bz7

rick1 wrote:Before reading the following link, get yourself some tissue so you can wipe your tears. If these predictions hold true, you won't be able to drive or eat and it's all man made, by one moron:
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/oil-and-gas-139-russia-ukraine/2022/03/07/id/1059960/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM308834_&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010124mp4bz7

Not sure where you get from the article to what you posted (especially since Biden has more than one puppetmaster). As for the article, I don't think Oil will get to $187 this summer (unless they are factoring another 30% inflation), simply because the US (and the world) economy will slow down to match the oil available.

TRex2 wrote:Went to grocer Wed AM.
I am fortunate to live in an area that rarely ever sees shortages, but still, I find a few.

Still No Ramen
Pasta still picked over

Chocolate candy - except for Valentines day packs, which are already thinning out.

canned whole cranberries (may just be out of season)
shoes are hit and miss (but I have all I need for the next year)

Ominus: there were a half dozen shelves up front at WalMart, holding nothing but 24 gallon totes, spread out to take up as much space as possible. Of course, it could be, they are just waiting for the Valentine's day deliveries.

Went to the groceries twice in the past two weeks. At one Grocer, there were only two pounds of whole wheat spaghetti on the shelf. I left them for someone who needs them more than I do. At the other grocer, there were six pounds. I took three. Still filling my stockpile, and these three will be on the table in 2024, if nothing gets any worse than it is, today. If the SHTF, we will be eating it 8 months into the collapse, if not sooner.