Threats to our Food Supply

by **ReadyMom** Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:10 am

Has anyone seen anything about this?

Activists working to pinpoint your ranch on an aerial map
https://www.beefmagazine.com/management/activists-working-pinpoint-your-ranch-aerial-map

Threats to our Food Supply Map_1

8 activist strategies to dismantle animal ag during COVID-19
https://www.beefmagazine.com/beef/8-activist-strategies-dismantle-animal-ag-during-covid-19

by rick1 Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:43 am

I saw that RM.

Nothing a AR-12, with 00 buck can't fix.

TicToc

by Dave58 Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:47 am

I saw this on the Ice Age Farmer last night. I like his channel on U tube... The one thing I have noticed about him is you can almost always verify everything he is talking about.....

I think our way of life ( doesn't matter what color you are ) is under attack. They are being very subtle about it and I am afraid the majority of the people are not going to wake up in time to see it....

by Dave58 Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:59 am

I just read this...

https://news.trust.org/item/20200914180913-2iwk8

The government just can't stand not having total control......

by TRex2 Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:41 pm

When I saw the thread title,
I thought it was some new bug,
but I see now it is some old bugs.

by Blondie Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:25 pm

Meanwhile, Straight Outta Seattle, BLM targets Trader Joe's:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/straight-outta-marxism-seattle-blm-takes-over-grocery-store-protest-lack-access-grocery

This isn't access to grocery stores. It's access to your grocery cart, paid for by your hard earned $.

On another thread I posted about seeing an armed/uniformed guard at a WM grocery entrance in a small town near me. While most Super WalMarts in Detroit have armed guards, guards are now appearing in small towns where the stores are far more vulnerable.

Time to begin using curbside pickup or don't shop alone. I never shopped alone in Detroit.

by Dave58 Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:43 am

How many of you folks have thought about this ????

https://youtu.be/C1HTRnpq87k

The smoke may become a real problem......

by rick1 Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:38 pm

Dave58 wrote:How many of you folks have thought about this ????

https://youtu.be/C1HTRnpq87k

The smoke may become a real problem......

Something old as rocks would say, "put a bunch of big fans on top of the rockies and blow it all back." Laugh Animated

But since he hasn't been on the forum in awhile, I had to say it.

Yes it's going to be a big problem, especially for those with medical conditions.

by rick1 Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:07 pm

The U.N. and World Food Program are estimating some 270 million people are on the pathway to starvation in 2021:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr_ClTUaUfY

by Dave58 Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:49 pm

rick1 wrote:The U.N. and World Food Program are estimating some 270 million people are on the pathway to starvation in 2021:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr_ClTUaUfY

Basically the same stuff I have been seeing on a lot of other channels

Check out the Ice Age Farmer he has a lot of stuff on this topic

by TRex2 Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:43 am

Dave58 wrote:
rick1 wrote:The U.N. and World Food Program are estimating some 270 million people are on the pathway to starvation in 2021:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr_ClTUaUfY
Basically the same stuff I have been seeing on a lot of other channels
Check out the Ice Age Farmer he has a lot of stuff on this topic

I heard the video mention production once, and that may have been once too many. This is a distribution problem, and a political problem, as regional actors often use starvation as a weapon against those they see as enemies.

Current estimates of grain supplies (which the world food program calls "cereal" ) are in balance, with as much being produced as "utilized" (consumed). There is approximately 120 days in reserves, which has been fairly constant for the past 5 years. In 2008, reserves fell from 90 days to around 40 days, and prices doubled. In 2012 (I think) another reduction in reserves caused a spike to about one and a half times normal prices, but since then the reserves have been fairly steady at over 100 days reserve.

There have been serious disruptions of American food production, but production in other places, most notably Brazil, is up. For now, the balance in supply is good. Packaging, and transportation is a vastly different matter, as Covid and political strife have wrecked the programs that normally distribute food to peoples who need it.

FAO Food Price Index and Forcasts
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/worldfood/Reports_and_docs/FO-Expanded-SF.pdf
See Chart on Page 7 of PDF and note prices in 2008 and 2012.
.

by TRex2 Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:20 pm

Current grains (cereals) supply situation, per the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization.

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
Published approximately the first Thursday of every month. (They skip August)

FAO’s forecast for global cereal production in 2020 has been lowered for the third consecutive month, with downward revisions for all the major cereals. Nonetheless, global cereal production is still expected to reach a record high level of 2 742 million tonnes, 1.3 percent above the previous year’s outturn.

Forecast at 1 472 million tonnes in 2020, world coarse grains production has been cut by 6.8 million tonnes month on month. The bulk of the revision reflects reduced yield prospects for maize in the United States of America (USA), which, however, is still on course to harvest its third largest crop on record, and in Ukraine. These reductions more than outweigh a lifting of Serbia’s maize production forecast, which is now seen to reach an all-time high in 2020. The forecast for world wheat production in 2020 has been trimmed marginally since last month to 761.7 million tonnes, putting this year’s output at a comparable level with the 2019 outturn. The downward revision reflects reduced forecasts for Argentina and Brazil, on account of recent sparse rains that curbed yield expectations, as well as in Kazakhstan, offsetting an increase made to the production estimate in the Russian Federation. As for rice, production prospects have deteriorated in Bangladesh and Viet Nam, in both cases reflecting the adverse impact of weather on secondary crops. However, the foreseen lower output in both countries, alongside other smaller downward revisions, are partly compensated by an upgrade for Pakistan, where preliminary official assessments indicate that another robust area expansion should lead to a record 2020 harvest. As a result, world rice production in 2020 is now predicted to reach an all-time high of 508.4 million tonnes, 1.5 percent above the 2019 reduced level but marginally down from the previous month’s expectations.

Looking further ahead, planting of the 2021 winter wheat crop in the northern hemisphere is underway, and sowings in several major producing countries are foreseen to increase driven by remunerative prices, although recent dry weather could curb planting expansions and hinder yields. In the USA, sowing operations are progressing at a fast pace, but dry weather conditions, influenced by the prevailing La Niña weather phenomenon, have resulted in moderately poorer crop conditions compared to the previous year. In Europe, robust export demand and rising prices have incentivized an area expansion in the Russian Federation, with sowings officially estimated at 19.2 million hectares, while limited rainfall in Ukraine caused 2021 sowings to fall to a below-average level. Following a reduced acreage in 2019, wheat sowings in the European Union (EU) are expected to recover substantially. In Asia, weather conditions have been generally conducive for the 2021 wheat crop and, supported by profitable prices, acreages in China, India and Pakistan are all foreseen to increase.

World cereal utilization in 2020/21 is forecast at a record 2 744 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from the previous month and 1.9 percent higher than in 2019/20. The forecast for total utilization of coarse grains in 2020/21 is pegged at 1 477 million tonnes, up 2.6 percent from the previous season stemming mostly from increased feed use, especially of maize and sorghum in China, as well as other uses, resulting from a rise in the production of maize-based ethanol in Brazil and the USA. At 757.6 million tonnes, global wheat utilization in 2020/21 is expected to exceed the estimated level for 2019/20 by 1.1 percent, largely as a result of a foreseen increase in food use. Global rice utilization in 2020/21 is anticipated to reach 510.3 million tonnes, unchanged from last month’s forecast and up 1.5 percent from 2019/20.

The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2021 has been cut by 9.6 million tonnes since the previous month to 866.4 million tonnes, with stocks now seen falling below their opening level by 0.7 percent. At this level, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio would decline from 31.8 percent in 2019/20 to 30.7 percent in 2020/21, a five-year low but still a relatively comfortable level.

That 30.7% is a 112 day supply. This item is important, as the prices don't do much until it drops to around 90 day supply, they may begin to rise at that time, and when it gets down to less than 70 day supply, prices will spike upwards.

So we are currently a comfortable month away from any global food crisis. This is down from a month and a half in 2019.

by Dave58 Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:30 pm

This could be a very bad thing

https://youtu.be/ojA9Ed7EYLs

by rick1 Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:39 pm

Dave58 wrote:This could be a very bad thing

https://youtu.be/ojA9Ed7EYLs

Hold onto your chickens Dave, they're going to get rid of them. Can't wait to eat a corn berger.

by TRex2 Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:33 pm

Latest from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (we may despise their politics, but for now, they are a good source for certain information.

This report is for January, so December is what I quoted a month ago.

The latest forecast for world cereal production in 2020 stands at nearly 2 744 million tonnes, up slightly (0.1 percent) from the previous report in December.

Now, that isn't too bad, but consumption (they call it utilization) is also up. Up a lot:

World cereal utilization in 2020/21 is now forecast at 2 761 million tonnes, following a 17.0 million-tonne upward revision to the December forecast. At this revised level, the forecast for world cereal utilization is up 52 million tonnes (1.9 percent) from the previous season.

Not only is this up from last season, it is higher than previously forecast.
Consequently:

FAO’s new forecast for world cereal stocks stands at 802 million tonnes, down as much as 64.3 million tonnes from December and 17.8 million tonnes (2.2 percent) from their opening levels and the smallest in five years. At this level, the world stocks-to-use ratio of cereals would decline from 29.7 percent in 2019/20 to 28.3 percent in 2020/21, marking a seven-year low.

Now, I am not certain about their math, as I get about 29.0%. Another way of putting it is we have about 106 days reserves. The first week in January, we had 112 days reserves. As I said in my previous posting, when this drops to 90 days, prices will begin to rise (more than what they have been rising). If it gets below 70 days, prices will spike upwards until consumption goes down. We could see rising prices this summer. Let me rephrase that, since we are already seeing rising prices, due to higher labor, fertilizer and fuel prices.

This will be more price increases, on top of that.

by **ReadyMom** Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:45 pm

That's good info, TR! I have NO idea how you keep up on so many things in such detail! Thank you!

by rick1 Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:22 pm

Good article TRex, with the $15.00 minimum wage they're fighting for, will also make prices go up and anything else Biden wants to add to the cost of goods.

by TRex2 Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:55 pm

ReadyMom wrote:That's good info, TR! I have NO idea how you keep up on so many things in such detail! Thank you!

Likewise, I have no idea how you manage to scrape up so many things to post here. (I would love to know what software suite you use to do all of that.)

by TRex2 Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:45 pm

rick1 wrote:Good article TRex, with the $15.00 minimum wage they're fighting for, will also make prices go up and anything else Biden wants to add to the cost of goods.

I believe I heard it on Charles Payne's show, on Fox Business, that the Business Supply Index has begun a rapid rise, and the Consumer Price Index usually lags that by three months. If that holds, a major inflation wave will arrive in May or June.

On the food front, we may be facing a shortage of peanuts/peanut butter.
I noticed the Peanut Butter was slim pickens, this morning at the grocer.

1 March 2021 Notice what both paragraphs say about acres.
https://peanutgrower.com/market-watch/rotational-crop-prices-bring-market-positives/

Peanut and peanut butter consumption has increased more than 8%, an unbelievable increase that has plants operating around the clock to keep shelves stocked. Some processors say that once schools and restaurants reopen, peanut butter demand will fall, and the market will have some slack. Brokers are concerned that if peanut producers reduce acres, the peanut supply will be short before the 2022 crop. A leveling of average yield per acre also factors into production totals.
...
As prices for alternative crops increase, farmers can hedge, and, if this continues, we will possibly have a decrease in planted peanut acres for the 2021 crop. Shellers are unaggressive to sell current crop. With little new crop contracted, shellers are unwilling to sell much quantity for 2021 crop and be short with most contracting still to come.

by **ReadyMom** Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:42 pm

TRex2 wrote:
On the food front, we may be facing a shortage of peanuts/peanut butter.
I noticed the Peanut Butter was slim pickens, this morning at the grocer.

Well ... I can attest to the fact that our household has contributed to that probable shortage! Since my husband has been home, we are going through about a small jar/week!!! I've always had that as one of my stock-items, but have been pressed to keep up. I usually purchase at a local discount grocer. Guess where I'll be going tomorrow!

Threats to our Food Supply ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fdoyouremember.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F02%2Feating

Threats to our Food Supply ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fdoyouremember.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F02%2Feating

(not my husband, but might as well be Laugh Animated

)

by Dave58 Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:03 am

There goes the strawberry pies

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-15/strawberry-prices-farmers-labour-shortage-queensland-students/13225816?utm_source=abc_news_web&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=abc_news_web

by rick1 Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:58 pm

You're going to pay more for coffee in the near future:

https://www.businessinsider.com/cup-of-coffee-cost-getting-more-expensive-shortage-2021-3

Forgot to add the suez canal blockage:

https://www.everstream.ai/risk-center/special-reports/suez-canal-container-ship-blockage/

by Dave58 Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:07 pm

If they don't get the container ship out of the Suez Canal we are going to paying a lot more for everything.. Last news report said it could be weeks before they got it free...

The guy driving was probably on his cell phone and not paying attention...

by rick1 Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:38 pm

Dave58 wrote:If they don't get the container ship out of the Suez Canal we are going to paying a lot more for everything.. Last news report said it could be weeks before they got it free...

The guy driving was probably on his cell phone and not paying attention...

Actually they were going through a bad storm and the wind blew the ship into the side of the canal, unlike Biden climbing the steps to air force 1.

I didn't know this, but the news said that one of those ships carry around 200,000 containers and there are now over 150 ships waiting to go through the canal. If they would go around Africa, it would take an additional 10 weeks to get to their port of entry.

by rick1 Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:35 pm

Here's another reason that will interrupt the food chain, along with everything else. The U.S. is short 1.1 million truck drivers:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/truck-drivers-shortage-2021

by TRex2 Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:44 pm

rick1 wrote:Here's another reason that will interrupt the food chain, along with everything else. The U.S. is short 1.1 million truck drivers:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/truck-drivers-shortage-2021

It isn't actually an immediate shortage, but one that could be with us for a long time:

To help offset the demand, the trucking industry will need to hire roughly 1.1 million new drivers over the 10 years or an average of 110,000 per year, ATA said.

by Dave58 Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:28 pm

I used Empire canning lids.... When I opened the jar it had black looking mold and rust inside.. When I checked the others they are all the same..

If you used them you might want to check your jars it looks like I will be throwing out about 75 jars Crying

by TRex2 Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:03 pm

The good news is that I saw Jars, Rings, and Lids at WalMart a couple days ago (somewhat normal price), so the shortage seems to be easing up. They said "Mason" but I didn't think about whether that was a style of a brand name.

Dave: How long ago did you use those "Empire" lids?

by Dave58 Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:51 pm

Last fall on the Empire...

100% my fault I should have researched them... I have used Ball,Mason and Tattler lids with no problems.. I even drank tomato juice that I canned 4 yrs ago....

Hind sight being what it is I googled Empire lids and the complaints went back as far as 2018....

Some times :BadDog:

happens

by rick1 Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:56 pm

Dave58 wrote:Last fall on the Empire...

100% my fault I should have researched them... I have used Ball,Mason and Tattler lids with no problems.. I even drank tomato juice that I canned 4 yrs ago....

Hind sight being what it is I googled Empire lids and the complaints went back as far as 2018....

Some times happens

Now that's a bummer.

by Dave58 Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:56 am

Mother in law called yesterday and wanted to know if I knew why their wasn't any cereal on the shelf at Wal-Mart. Said it had been almost empty for 3 weeks...

Is anybody else noticed this lately ??

by Blondie Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:19 am

Dave58 wrote:Mother in law called yesterday and wanted to know if I knew why their wasn't any cereal on the shelf at Wal-Mart. Said it had been almost empty for 3 weeks...

Is anybody else noticed this lately ??

No problem getting cold cereal or oatmeal up here.

Hard time finding sugar free gingerale, 7Up and powdered ice tea mix.

by rick1 Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:58 am

Blondie wrote:
Dave58 wrote:Mother in law called yesterday and wanted to know if I knew why their wasn't any cereal on the shelf at Wal-Mart. Said it had been almost empty for 3 weeks...

Is anybody else noticed this lately ??

No problem getting cold cereal or oatmeal up here.

Hard time finding sugar free gingerale, 7Up and powdered ice tea mix.

I read this and had to go to the store anyway, so I checked the shelves. Up and down the rows I went, pushing an M-T cart.

Nope, everything was stocked up, no M-T shelves. Talked to an assistant manager and he said the trucks have been coming steady and full loads, for now. I said for now, he said yes, rumor has it that things may get a little tight by the end of summer on some items. Peanut butter, toilet paper, paper towels, coffee, tea, some dairy products, etc.. Plus, he said prices are going to go up, again, on many products. He said that's the rumor from several of the truck drivers.

by TRex2 Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:01 am

Dave58 wrote:Mother in law called yesterday and wanted to know if I knew why their wasn't any cereal on the shelf at Wal-Mart. Said it had been almost empty for 3 weeks...

Is anybody else noticed this lately ??

Where is your Mother-In-Law?

by Dave58 Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:05 am

TRex2 wrote:
Dave58 wrote:Mother in law called yesterday and wanted to know if I knew why their wasn't any cereal on the shelf at Wal-Mart. Said it had been almost empty for 3 weeks...

Is anybody else noticed this lately ??
Where is your Mother-In-Law?

Southern Indiana

by Blondie Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:14 pm

Do you have any Mennonite owned bulk stores near you?

Up here they carry mostly Walnut Creek foods from OH. Walnut Creek has some good cold cereals in bulk packaging but you can store them in smaller quantities. They also have oats, steel cut, softer oats, etc.

I'm avoiding the stock narket. I think a stocked pantry is the way to go. A $5 jar of peanut butter should be $20 by Christmas.

by TRex2 Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:41 pm

Dave58 wrote:
TRex2 wrote:
Dave58 wrote:Mother in law called yesterday and wanted to know if I knew why their wasn't any cereal on the shelf at Wal-Mart. Said it had been almost empty for 3 weeks...
Is anybody else noticed this lately ??
Where is your Mother-In-Law?
Southern Indiana

There were storms not far from that area, that could have interrupted supply lines, but I can't think of anything that would have kept the shelves bare for three weeks.

by Dave58 Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:51 pm

I may have found part of the reason

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/supply-chain-slowdown-hits-at-key-pillars-of-economy-and-will-likely-get-worse-dan-yergin.html

by Blondie Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:00 pm

I call BS on many so called shortages.

My theory is something like 3 of 4 Americans got a stimulus check and those who are working from home are saving commuting costs while others are just plain stashing cash for the uncertainty ahead.

Retailers are annoyed many people are buying necessities so why not price gouge on necessities?

If it's hyperinflation, then why is only lumber thru the roof and yet shingles, siding and many other building supplies not skyrocketing?

DJT leaves office and gasoline goes up by 75 cents/gallon.

Shutting my wallet and when I spend I'll hit ebay, Craigslist, or a reclaim outlet before I hit the builder supply place

by Dave58 Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:13 am

Blondie wrote:I call BS on many so called shortages.

My theory is something like 3 of 4 Americans got a stimulus check and those who are working from home are saving commuting costs while others are just plain stashing cash for the uncertainty ahead.

Retailers are annoyed many people are buying necessities so why not price gouge on necessities?

If it's hyperinflation, then why is only lumber thru the roof and yet shingles, siding and many other building supplies not skyrocketing?

DJT leaves office and gasoline goes up by 75 cents/gallon.

Shutting my wallet and when I spend I'll hit ebay, Craigslist, or a reclaim outlet before I hit the builder supply place

I don't think its just lumber and gas that have gone up... My friend owns a hardware store and they showed me a price increase of up to 300% on some things just over a months time. Things like shovels ,rakes even pvc pipe....

by Dave58 Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:16 am

Here is something else I found.. I know it pertains mostly to Japan, But how much of the trade goods coming here come thru the South China Sea ???

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/Is-Japan-ready-for-a-Taiwan-crisis-Scenarios-warn-of-food-and-fuel-shortage

by Dave58 Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:55 am

I just finished my early morning coffee break/research break and found out that up to 33% of goods ship thru South China Sea..

Also the source said that the South East Asia would be hit the hardest if trade were to be reduced or cut off .....

by Dave58 Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:13 pm

https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-domino-fire-20210420-wzv6h7qzuffqvlgso256plwzyi-story.html

by TRex2 Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:41 pm

Dave58 wrote:https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-domino-fire-20210420-wzv6h7qzuffqvlgso256plwzyi-story.html

Based on the quantity they mentioned in the article, it will be a significant, but temporary (I hope) dent in the supply.

by **ReadyMom** Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:07 pm

TRex2 wrote:
Dave58 wrote:https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-domino-fire-20210420-wzv6h7qzuffqvlgso256plwzyi-story.html
Based on the quantity they mentioned in the article, it will be a significant, but temporary (I hope) dent in the supply.

Who has buckets of sugar on hand ... raise your hand!! (It should be next to the TP you dipped into, last spring)

by Dave58 Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:12 pm

by Dave58 Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:53 am

https://www.agriculture.com/weather/news/colder-second-half-of-april-will-slow-germination-in-the-western-and-northern-corn-belt

by Dave58 Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:06 am

https://agroinsurance.com/en/france-up-to-95-of-losses-for-apple-growers-in-the-cher/

by rick1 Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:24 am

Dave58 wrote:

Me too

by TRex2 Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:01 am

Yeah, most of us (including me)have about a two year supply, but some of our friends and relatives (and my favorite restaurant) don't. That is why I hope it is temporary.

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