Threats to our Food Supply

Cinnamon wrote:Shortages for the last 2 weeks where we shop:

Eggs - completely out for two weeks. We get ours from our neighbor, so no worries for us.

Broth - all the canned and packaged broth shelves were nearly empty. Lot of holes in the canned soup, too. In all fairness, we've had bad weather, so I guess that could be why. I make a lot of chicken broth, but not a lot of beef broth. Guess I need to start.

Bread was about out. I got one of the last loaves of the brand we buy. I used to make our bread, but with all the illness in the family, I got out of the habit. Probably need to pick it up again.

Potatoes - none in the bins. Some single ones for baking. There were some baby potatoes in bags.

Apples - there were some, but the pickings were slim.  

Animal dry food - the cats' food has been out for weeks, but I didn't worry because I stocked up. Now that we're feeding the neighbor's 4 kittens, I need a more. I got the last bag on the shelf on Friday. The dog food we usually buy has been in stock, but the less expensive stuff is low, or gone.

That is pretty alarming.

That isn't normal, for your local grocer, is it?
Possibly due to weather?

I am planning a trip to the grocer, probably on Wednesday (weather factors into my schedule).
I need to pay attention, and take notes.

TRex2 wrote:

Cinnamon wrote:Shortages for the last 2 weeks where we shop:

Eggs - completely out for two weeks. We get ours from our neighbor, so no worries for us.

Broth - all the canned and packaged broth shelves were nearly empty. Lot of holes in the canned soup, too. In all fairness, we've had bad weather, so I guess that could be why. I make a lot of chicken broth, but not a lot of beef broth. Guess I need to start.

Bread was about out. I got one of the last loaves of the brand we buy. I used to make our bread, but with all the illness in the family, I got out of the habit. Probably need to pick it up again.

Potatoes - none in the bins. Some single ones for baking. There were some baby potatoes in bags.

Apples - there were some, but the pickings were slim.  

Animal dry food - the cats' food has been out for weeks, but I didn't worry because I stocked up. Now that we're feeding the neighbor's 4 kittens, I need a more. I got the last bag on the shelf on Friday. The dog food we usually buy has been in stock, but the less expensive stuff is low, or gone.

That is pretty alarming.

That isn't normal, for your local grocer, is it?
Possibly due to weather?

I am planning a trip to the grocer, probably on Wednesday (weather factors into my schedule).
I need to pay attention, and take notes.

My wife is going to another town close by today. I will have her take a good look at things

Dave58 wrote:

TRex2 wrote:

Cinnamon wrote:Shortages for the last 2 weeks where we shop:
...

That is pretty alarming.

That isn't normal, for your local grocer, is it?
Possibly due to weather?

I am planning a trip to the grocer, probably on Wednesday (weather factors into my schedule).
I need to pay attention, and take notes.

My wife is going to another town close by today. I will have her take a good look at things

My wife and I stopped by the local (same size as a 7-11) grocer this morning. I only noticed two things in short supply. The particular frozen fish and cans of beef stew that I buy (I am a bit picky on those two items, while times are good). I didn't look too closely, because the recent snowfall, followed by a minor ice storm has things a bit messy.

Still planning a trip to WalMart (an hour's drive) tomorrow.
Will take a closer look, there.

We went to Giant Eagle and Wal Mart today, I didn't see any shortages on anything, only joe crow 2.0 high prices.

Dave58 wrote:https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-to-sell-off-entire-northeast-gasoline-supply-reserve/ar-BB1jiLdI?ocid=socialshare&cvid=fa996ee87762464f9c148c79764c2a87&ei=13

I can see why they are selling the reserve, it costs millions of dollars to maintain and its never been used for emergencies. Even if they used it in an emergency, it's only a drop in the bucket.

Before I would sell it to a foreign country, I'd sell it to a company in the U.S., if possible. But knowing joe crow 2.0, he'll find a loop hole and sell it to China or Russia and Hunter will get a kick back $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

The U.S. producing less beef and less calves for beef production.

Like vegie burgers or cricket burgers, better develop a taste for it. The demonrat state of NY suing largest beef producer over climate change and beef:

https://www.agriculture.com/fewer-cattle-and-lower-u-s-beef-production-in-the-near-term-8559393

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ny-attorney-general-sues-worlds-largest-beef-producer-over-methane-emissions-climate-commitments/ar-BB1j7gp7

rick1 wrote:The U.S. producing less beef and less calves for beef production.

Like vegie burgers or cricket burgers, better develop a taste for it. The demonrat state of NY suing largest beef producer over climate change and beef:

https://www.agriculture.com/fewer-cattle-and-lower-u-s-beef-production-in-the-near-term-8559393

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ny-attorney-general-sues-worlds-largest-beef-producer-over-methane-emissions-climate-commitments/ar-BB1j7gp7

Add to that, a natural disaster in the TX and OK panhandle.
The million acres burned is a drop in the bucket, but the losses to agriculture are not.

This will add to the (mild) shortages we were already expecting, over the next couple several years.

TRex2 wrote:

Cinnamon wrote:Shortages for the last 2 weeks where we shop:

Eggs - completely out for two weeks. We get ours from our neighbor, so no worries for us.

Broth - all the canned and packaged broth shelves were nearly empty. Lot of holes in the canned soup, too. In all fairness, we've had bad weather, so I guess that could be why. I make a lot of chicken broth, but not a lot of beef broth. Guess I need to start.

Bread was about out. I got one of the last loaves of the brand we buy. I used to make our bread, but with all the illness in the family, I got out of the habit. Probably need to pick it up again.

Potatoes - none in the bins. Some single ones for baking. There were some baby potatoes in bags.

Apples - there were some, but the pickings were slim.  

Animal dry food - the cats' food has been out for weeks, but I didn't worry because I stocked up. Now that we're feeding the neighbor's 4 kittens, I need a more. I got the last bag on the shelf on Friday. The dog food we usually buy has been in stock, but the less expensive stuff is low, or gone.

That is pretty alarming.

That isn't normal, for your local grocer, is it?
Possibly due to weather?

I am planning a trip to the grocer, probably on Wednesday (weather factors into my schedule).
I need to pay attention, and take notes.

We live so rural that we drive to a nearby town some 35 miles away to shop at the only big store in town - Walmart. These shortages are at Walmart. What is very strange is that there is a Walmart to the south of that one and a Walmart to the north of that one - it is on a main route through the state...the other two Walmarts (50+ miles away in each direction) are always well stocked. Ours has been lacking for some time now, and we even have a new manager. We're not sure why we're experiencing these shortages.

In spite of the fires in the panhandle, the UN FAO has, once again posted a rosy picture of the situation for the future of food. To be fair, the disaster in the panhandle has been recent enough, the following figures probably don't reflect the change. Things may look different, next month.

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
RELEASE DATE: 08/03/2024

FAO’s new forecast for world cereal production in 2023 has been raised marginally and now stands at 2 840 million tonnes, marking a 1.1 percent (30.4 million tonnes) rise compared to the previous year. This growth is primarily the result of a substantial increase in the forecast for world maize output (up 5.3 percent), driven by Brazil, China (mainland) and the United States of America, which more than offsets a lower expected global wheat output (down 2.3 percent).

FAO's forecast for global cereal stocks ending in 2024 has also been raised since last month by 1.5 million tonnes to 896.9 million tonnes, representing a 24-million-tonne (2.8 percent) increase above their opening levels. Consequently, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio should be expected to increase from 30.9 percent in 2022/23 to 31.1 percent in 2023/24, pointing to a continuing comfortable global supply situation.

A 31% stocks to use translates, roughly, to 113 days of supply.  
Markets won't begin to take notice until the perceive levels equating to less than 90 days of supply. The last time we had a market panic was about 15 years ago, when the supplies dropped below 70 days of supply.

I had posted under financial about our butcher telling me that sometime this summer, beef prices will be going up 1.50 to 2.00 a pound.

Vegeburgers anybody???????

rick1 wrote:I had posted under financial about our butcher telling me that sometime this summer, beef prices will be going up 1.50 to 2.00 a pound.

Vegeburgers anybody???????

I saw a recipe (wish I had kept it) for a black bean burger that sounded pretty good.

But the commercial sh,,,,er,,,,um,,,stuff, they try to sell us?
fuhgettaboutit.

TRex2 wrote:

rick1 wrote:I had posted under financial about our butcher telling me that sometime this summer, beef prices will be going up 1.50 to 2.00 a pound.

Vegeburgers anybody???????

I saw a recipe (wish I had kept it) for a black bean burger that sounded pretty good.

But the commercial sh,,,,er,,,,um,,,stuff, they try to sell us?
fuhgettaboutit.

I have a couple cases of that sh er um stuff, it's not that bad, just a little salty.

If the big BBQ in Texas wasn't enough how about a little Bird Flu for dessert??

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/dairy-cattle-in-texas-and-kansas-test-positive-for-bird-flu/ar-BB1kwkaB?ocid=socialshare&cvid=24c23471c15d433d8cd25576ee199084&ei=15&sc=shoreline

Dave58 wrote:If the big BBQ in Texas wasn't enough how about a little Bird Flu for dessert??

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/dairy-cattle-in-texas-and-kansas-test-positive-for-bird-flu/ar-BB1kwkaB?ocid=socialshare&cvid=24c23471c15d433d8cd25576ee199084&ei=15&sc=shoreline

I guess milk prices will be going up again this year.... sigh.

dmwalsh568 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:If the big BBQ in Texas wasn't enough how about a little Bird Flu for dessert??
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/dairy-cattle-in-texas-and-kansas-test-positive-for-bird-flu/ar-BB1kwkaB?ocid=socialshare&cvid=24c23471c15d433d8cd25576ee199084&ei=15&sc=shoreline

I guess milk prices will be going up again this year.... sigh.

This time around, I think we are going to get off easy.
( " again this year " ? did I miss something ? )

From the linked article:

Experts say livestock appear to recover on their own within seven to 10 days. That's different than bird flu outbreaks in poultry, which necessitate killing flocks ...

So far, the virus appears to be infecting about 10% of lactating dairy cows in the affected herds, said Michael Payne, a food animal veterinarian and and biosecurity expert with the University of California-Davis Western Institute for Food Safety and Security.

“This doesn’t look anything like the high-path influenza in bird flocks,” he said.

So, this is going to take some herds off line for a couple weeks.

What does not bode well, for the future, is the ever expanding list of mammals these viruses are infecting:

Bird flu previously has been reported in 48 different mammal species, Payne noted, adding: “It was probably only a matter of time before avian influenza made its way to ruminants.”

You can replace the word "ruminants" with any mammal species you can think of, and the sentence is still true.

Went to Walmart on Friday.

Pet food is still slim pickins'. The canned cat food we buy (Friskies shreds) hasn't been in stock for about 4 weeks now. I have a reserve, but it's running low. We're now swinging by Tractor Supply to get the dog food - WM just doesn't seem to have the big bags at all. I have 3 big dogs, I need the big bag. We're stocking up on it now, too. TS doesn't have the cat food, either.

Interestingly, frozen foods didn't seem well stocked. We don't eat much of that - I occasionally get a big bag of mixed veggies, but the big bags don't seem to be available anymore. There were empty spaces in the freezer case, not sure what went there.

The 10 lbs of chicken leg quarters is now a different company - but it was still on sale for $4. I've been buying 20 pounds at a time.

In other news, I downsized my hoard of sewing machines - I kept 5, and gave 4 to a friend who wants to start teaching sewing to the locals.

We still haven't put the seedlings in the ground because we have freezing temps coming this week. The tomatoes and beans are growing like mad, the cabbage and cherry tomatoes aren't far behind. My corn salad is sprouting, finally! I hope to get a small crop this year. The lavender and basil are just peeking out of the soil, hope they continue to grow.

The peach tree bloomed in the spring temps in February, but the freeze last week may have killed the blossoms. I don't have the heart to go out there and check...however, one year, it bloomed twice and the second time got peaches, so I'm hoping this may happen again. Now, if I can only beat the raccoons to the peaches!

We have predicted bad storms coming over the region this afternoon and for the next three days. Weather guessers are talking F2 tornadoes and hail. We will be clearing the car port of things this afternoon, so that Husband can pull the two newer cars under shelter. The older car has already suffered hail damage, more won't change anything.

A local business sells strawberries from Florida about once a month. I missed the last month's so Husband and I decided to go to this month's sale. The line was probably 300 people long and we got there very early. We just drove on...I'll source my strawberries from one of the farmer's markets.

A lot of people around this area haven't had gardens in a few years...they're putting gardens in this year.

And, one of my neighbors asked for some of my sourdough starter so they could bake bread too.

People are expecting hard times, and most of the rural dwellers seem to be preparing more for it than they've done in years past.

Cinnamon wrote:Went to Walmart on Friday.
.... There were empty spaces in the freezer case, not sure what went there.

Hopefully just rotating maintenance schedules.
We had a round of that about a year ago.
Moving freezer to freezer, clean them out, do some maintenance and move on to the next one.
(I suspect they want the freezers to last longer: hard times.)

The 10 lbs of chicken leg quarters is now a different company - but it was still on sale for $4. I've been buying 20 pounds at a time.

Let us know how their product tastes, someday when you get around to eating that product.

...however, one year, it bloomed twice and the second time got peaches, so I'm hoping this may happen again. Now, if I can only beat the raccoons to the peaches!

Isn't that what a small (noisy) dog is for?

We have predicted bad storms coming over the region this afternoon and for the next three days. Weather guessers are talking F2 tornadoes and hail.
...

I hope this passed you by.
It passed just to the North of us.

A lot of people around this area haven't had gardens in a few years...they're putting gardens in this year.

And, one of my neighbors asked for some of my sourdough starter so they could bake bread too.

People are expecting hard times, and most of the rural dwellers seem to be preparing more for it than they've done in years past.

Any new (post pandemic) neighbors?
Or is your area pretty stable?

Wife and I went to the grocery yesterday and noticed an amazing amount of people with their carts filled to capacity. Now granted it was sale day , but still it was strange. It seems everybody has went bat crap crazy over the Solar Eclipse my state has went so far as to declare a state of emergency and to tell people to have at least 2 weeks worth of food and water. Not that it should matter to our little group. I'm sure we all have that.

How are things in your neck of the woods??

Dave58 wrote:Wife and I went to the grocery yesterday and noticed an amazing amount of people with their carts filled to capacity. Now granted it was sale day , but still it was strange. It seems everybody has went bat crap crazy over the Solar Eclipse my state has went so far as to declare a state of emergency and to tell people to have at least 2 weeks worth of food and water. Not that it should matter to our little group. I'm sure we all have that.

How are things in your neck of the woods??

Haven't heard anything like that around my area, as a matter of fact, nobody has even mentioned it.

We went to Aldi's last Friday, there wasn't even a dozen people in the store. We stock up on a years worth of rice, flour and sugar.

H5N1 in cows is more widespread than previously thought

20% of grocery store milk has traces of bird flu, suggesting wider outbreak
The milk is still considered safe, but disease experts are alarmed by the prevalence.

While experts are largely unconcerned with the safety of commercial milk, the potential for wide, unrecognized spread of bird flu in dairy herds is alarming.

Seriously?????   Ugh!  And they are 'largely unconcerned ...'

dmwalsh568 wrote:

H5N1 in cows is more widespread than previously thought

20% of grocery store milk has traces of bird flu, suggesting wider outbreak
The milk is still considered safe, but disease experts are alarmed by the prevalence.

While experts are largely unconcerned with the safety of commercial milk, the potential for wide, unrecognized spread of bird flu in dairy herds is alarming.

Seriously?????   Ugh!  And they are 'largely unconcerned ...'

I wrote about this on Mar 26, in this thread.

I have some concern, but not too serious.

The cows recover, the virus does not survive pasteurization (they are finding fragments in milk, not whole virus), and at this time, the virus infecting cows has difficulty when trying to infect humans (only one case, last I heard). There is NO human to human transmission of this variant, and I suspect it will be a while before we see any human to human spread. (It will be difficult for the virus to find the right mutation, to go from cow to human.)

Cats are actually more at risk.

More detailed reports, here:
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/joint-faowhowoah-preliminary-assessment.html
and
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/cdc-updated-technical-report-on-hpai.html

TRex2 wrote:

Cinnamon wrote:Went to Walmart on Friday.
.... There were empty spaces in the freezer case, not sure what went there.

Hopefully just rotating maintenance schedules.
We had a round of that about a year ago.
Moving freezer to freezer, clean them out, do some maintenance and move on to the next one.
(I suspect they want the freezers to last longer: hard times.)

Maybe - it was pretty well stocked this week - maybe you're right.

The 10 lbs of chicken leg quarters is now a different company - but it was still on sale for $4. I've been buying 20 pounds at a time.

Let us know how their product tastes, someday when you get around to eating that product.

Well, it's pretty good. While I actually debone and shred for the dogs, the meat I baked on Friday went towards a few chicken sandwiches for Husband and I and it was mighty tasty.

...however, one year, it bloomed twice and the second time got peaches, so I'm hoping this may happen again. Now, if I can only beat the raccoons to the peaches!

Isn't that what a small (noisy) dog is for?

I have three large noisy dogs. The peach tree is outside their enclosure, so they're not much of a threat. Guess I should have thought about that when we planted the tree.

We have predicted bad storms coming over the region this afternoon and for the next three days. Weather guessers are talking F2 tornadoes and hail.
...

I hope this passed you by.
It passed just to the North of us.

Passed north of us, too.

A lot of people around this area haven't had gardens in a few years...they're putting gardens in this year.

And, one of my neighbors asked for some of my sourdough starter so they could bake bread too.

People are expecting hard times, and most of the rural dwellers seem to be preparing more for it than they've done in years past.

Any new (post pandemic) neighbors?
Or is your area pretty stable?

We have a new set of neighbors, that will increase, as those neighbors' parents are looking for property around here, too. And since a different neighbor passed 2 weeks ago (before my Pa passed away), the heirs told one of our other neighbors they are selling the property. We've talked and traded with the new neighbors, they're slowly adapting to our mindset.

Still some cat food and dog food shortages. We're driving around town to the mill, a Tractor Supply, and another grocery store to get all the animal food we used to just buy at Walmart.

Regarding avian flu virus in the milk supply.

ReadyMom wrote:Thanks, so much, TRex for keep up with this!!

Don't forget, you have to temper this good news with what I wrote about the next possible pandemic:
https://emergencyhomeprep.forumotion.com/t1789-the-next-possible-pandemic#17168

I wrote that I am not too concerned with flu spread by way of Dairy Cattle. OTOH, there are many more ways these viruses can spread, and they should be reason for concern.

ReadyMom wrote:Saw this today: (In case anyone wants it)

They forgot goat milk. They might consider it dairy, but for me, I can't have cow's milk, but I can have goat mild.

Goat milk is higher in nutrients than cow's milk, BTW.

Cinnamon wrote:Still some cat food and dog food shortages. We're driving around town to the mill, a Tractor Supply, and another grocery store to get all the animal food we used to just buy at Walmart.  

Sounds more like a delivery problem than an actual shortage of product.

The US trucking industry is having an identity crisis, and needs to figure out how to keep trucks and drivers on the road, both safe and productive.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-trucking-embraces-alarming-turnover-rates

There are public safety reasons for figuring out how to boost driver retention. A federal study from 2017 showed that less experienced drivers are more likely to cause a serious accident. A truck driver with less than three years of experience, for example, is 47% more likely to cause an accident than one with more than three years on the road, according to the analysis.

Improving retention rather than increasing the potential number of drivers might seem to be the obvious answer to an outside observer. But under the current conditions of the trucking industry, fleets aren’t incentivized to do that. It’s just not as profitable — and trucking is ruled by what University of Pennsylvania sociologist Steve Viscelli calls “destructive competition.”

Now, "destructive competition" is a normal function that keeps capitalism healthy, but it can be taken too far. (You need iron in your diet, but you don't eat nuts and bolts.)

The American Trucking Associations, a lobbyist organization that represents trucking employers, estimated last year there was an industry shortage of 78,000 drivers. Associations in other countries report similar labor shortages.

Few outside the ATA’s membership appear to agree. Research suggests trucking fleets — especially large truckload carriers — struggle to keep their trucks running because of turnover. Large truckload fleets, for example, saw an annual turnover rate of around 94% from 1995 to 2017. That would mean, say, a trucking company that employs 1,000 drivers would have to rehire 940 drivers over the course of a year.