Threats to our Food Supply

Time for another update on world food supplies and stockpiles. The previous one was in early March, and for some reason, I put it under supply chain issues. Possibly because Russia had just trashed the supply chains coming out of their own, and Ukrainian, ports.

The FAO is now showing that the war will have an effect (well, better late than never?).
Here is the link to the current analysis. I don't know where they get archived.
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/

Some highlights:

FAO’s latest estimates indicate a year-on-year 0.9 percent increase in global cereal production in 2021, largely attributed to a higher maize output. Cereal utilization is also estimated to increase in 2021/22, by 1.1 percent, driven by (in order of magnitude) expansions in food consumption (especially of wheat and rice), other uses (largely of maize), and feed use (mostly of maize). Based on world cereal production and utilization estimates, cereal stocks at the end of seasons in 2022 are seen rising above their opening levels, but remaining below the record levels reached in 2018/19. Global trade in cereals in 2021/22 is estimated below the 2020/21 record level, mostly owing to an expected fall in global maize trade and reflecting the impact of disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine.

This is saying that they don't think the war will significantly impact supplies and stockpiles, this year, but will impact transportation. I have some doubts as to how easy it will be to harvest and store grain in a war zone. The UN is still counting grain in Ukraine and Russia as available to the world.

Looking forward to the 2022/23 season, early prospects for cereal production in 2022 point to a likely decrease, which would mark the first decline in four years. Based on the conditions of crops already in the ground and planting intentions for those yet to be sown, world cereal output is forecast to fall to 2 784 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent), which is down 16 million tonnes from the record output estimated for 2021. Among the major cereals, the largest decline is foreseen for maize, followed by wheat and rice. By contrast, global outturns of barley and sorghum will likely increase in 2022, to represent a partial rebound from the reduced level for barley in 2021 and the highest production level of sorghum since 2016.

So, here, they are recognizing that grain that isn't planted won't grow. I don't think they have calculated the losses from lack of fertilizer, yet.

Based on FAO’s initial forecasts for global cereal production in 2022 and utilization in 2022/23, cereal output would not be sufficient to meet the expected utilization requirements, leading to a 0.4 percent contraction in global cereal stocks from their opening levels, to 847 million tonnes. At the current levels of utilization and stock forecasts, the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio would drop from 30.5 percent in 2021/22 to 29.6 percent in 2022/23, the lowest level since 2013/14 but still well above the record low of 21.4 percent registered in 2007/08.

I still think this is overly optimistic. As a reminder, when stocks dropped below 22%, in 2008, there were riots in several countries, and prices in the US rose dramatically. (I didn't track them, then, so I can't give numbers.)

Tighter supplies and market uncertainty, especially for wheat, maize and barley, as well as rising energy and input prices, will likely keep world cereal prices elevated, at least through the first half of the 2022/23 season.

For more detailed analysis of cereal markets, see the June issue of Food Outlook, which will be released on 9 June 2022.

So, they are marginally aware of the "increased input prices," which really means fertilizer shortages.

Will be interesting to see their "June issue of Food Outlook."

This doesn't look good for food delivery

https://www.msn.com/en-ae/money/news/jpmorgan-predicts-dollar380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-retaliatory-output-cuts/ar-AAZ6ug9

Dave58 wrote:This doesn't look good for food delivery

https://www.msn.com/en-ae/money/news/jpmorgan-predicts-dollar380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-retaliatory-output-cuts/ar-AAZ6ug9

Holy Hanna, if that would happen, not only will people freeze to death in winter, they'll starve to death.

What is sad about all of this, is that we could eliminate all of this by just pumping our own energy, but crow bait joe says NO.

Dave58 wrote:This doesn't look good for food delivery
https://www.msn.com/en-ae/money/news/jpmorgan-predicts-dollar380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-retaliatory-output-cuts/ar-AAZ6ug9

Not sure why JPMorgan would be pushing this nonsense, unless it is a Pump and Dump scheme.

There is a "self limiting" mechanism, in oil pricing.

It is a lot like:
If I heat water from 70degrees to 170degrees in 10 minutes,
will it go to 270 degrees in another 10 minute?

No, there is a self limiting mechanism at 212.

It isn't quite as stark, with oil, but at some range (right now, that seems to be $165 to $220) consumption drops sufficiently to impede further rise. Remember when we discussed $170 a barrel, a few months back? The self limiting mechanism has kept it below $120. Under dire stress, it will rise further, but each dollar requires more stress than the previous dollar.

Rick1 is right, though, if we get enough of a cut to production, Europeans will freeze to death, and starve. We will be cold and complaining about the price of food. Some people here in the US will get pretty hungry.

I thought I would put this here. It seems to go along with our food supply..

https://unherd.com/thepost/brace-for-winter-lockdowns/

Dave58 wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trains-could-stop-running-us-literally-one-week-now

Good article. A smart President would issue an order (NOW) to the railroad officials/unions that if you go on strike, you will not have a job. But, like I said, a smart President would.

rick1 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trains-could-stop-running-us-literally-one-week-now

Good article. A smart President would issue an order (NOW) to the railroad officials/unions that if you go on strike, you will not have a job. But, like I said, a smart President would.

Found an interesting document from the Congressional Research Service at https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11966

From reading that it looks like POTUS is letting the process play out and if a lockout or strike is declared, then he can end it immediately by forming an Emergency Board

If the President forms an Emergency Board, it will have 30 days to investigate the facts and report to the President with nonbinding recommendations for settlement of the dispute. During this initial 30-day period and for 30 days after the report has been issued, the NMB continues to mediate the dispute. If no agreement is reached by the end of this final 30-day period, whether on a contract or on an extension of the cooling-off period, the parties may engage in work stoppages. Assuming a Presidential Emergency Board is created at the end of the cooling-off period that began June 18, the parties could not generally engage in strikes or lockouts until the conclusion of the investigation and cooling-off periods on September 16. The last time a Presidential Emergency Board was created to resolve a freight railroad labor dispute was in 2011, and while the final cooling-off period was extended several times, a new agreement was reached in April 2012 without a strike or lockout.

Of course, Congress can intervene with legislation, but given the current level of disfunction, I suspect they won't be able to agree to anything, so the Emergency Board is the only viable option if the two sides won't behave and come to an agreement....

Is joe crow 2.0 a threat to our food supply?

According to the National Black Farmers president, it sounds like he is. Joe crow is going to send $1.2 billion to North Africa to fight famine and is ignoring American farmers request to meet with them on the prices of fertilizer, lime, fuel, etc.:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/national-black-farmers-president-issues-dire-warning-biden-admin-heading-food-shortage

rick1 wrote:Is joe crow 2.0 a threat to our food supply?

According to the National Black Farmers president, it sounds like he is. Joe crow is going to send $1.2 billion to North Africa to fight famine and is ignoring American farmers request to meet with them on the prices of fertilizer, lime, fuel, etc.:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/national-black-farmers-president-issues-dire-warning-biden-admin-heading-food-shortage

I can't find anything that tells me where the food being donated to Africa is being purchased. In the past food aid has been purchased from farmers here in the USA and then sent to the areas receiving the donation, so it's not like giving the recipients a check to go to their local market and buy items (that might or might not be available.) Anybody have any sources that say we're buying foreign farm products to give to Africa?

Are these threats to our food supply, I say yes. This eco group has bought up 450,000 acres and want to stitch up a total of 3.2 million acres:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/billionaire-funded-eco-group-quietly-taking-farmland-out-production-rural-america

Then there is China, as of 2019, they've bought up 192,000 acres, a lot of it close to our military bases. China also owns 25% of our pork industry:

https://nypost.com/2022/07/25/ron-desantis-blasts-china-for-buying-up-florida-farmland/

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/be-concerned-that-china-is-a-shadow-owner-in-the-us-pork-industry

And then there's that moron Bill Gates that wants to be the veggie burger king:

https://www.askbamland.com/post/how-much-land-does-bill-gates-own

Like beef? Ya know, a big fat burger or maybe a T bone steak. Well, plan on paying a heck of a lot more for your beef, that's if ya can get it. Seems that starting next year, beef is going to be a little thin in the stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/beef-prices-set-surge-further-farmers-sell-cattle-herds

rick1 wrote:Like beef? Ya know, a big fat burger or maybe a T bone steak. Well, plan on paying a heck of a lot more for your beef, that's if ya can get it. Seems that starting next year, beef is going to be a little thin in the stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/beef-prices-set-surge-further-farmers-sell-cattle-herds

Its close to $1800 more /less for a half a beef around here.. Pork butt is on sale again for .99 lb. Thinking about buying another freezer and filling it up.. Just trying to convince my wife that we need 3 freezers..

Dave58 wrote:

rick1 wrote:Like beef? Ya know, a big fat burger or maybe a T bone steak. Well, plan on paying a heck of a lot more for your beef, that's if ya can get it. Seems that starting next year, beef is going to be a little thin in the stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/beef-prices-set-surge-further-farmers-sell-cattle-herds

Its close to $1800 more /less for a half a beef around here.. Pork butt is on sale again for .99 lb. Thinking about buying another freezer and filling it up.. Just trying to convince my wife that we need 3 freezers..  

That's cheap for port butt, it's around 1.49/lb here and that's on sale.

Last year I sold 2 steers and 1 heifer for $1.49/lb on the hoof, this year it's $1.99/lb on the hoof and I'm cheaper then most of the farmers around here, they're charging $2.10/lb, but I'm small change compared to them.

This year I plan on selling 3 heifer's plus 1 for us. I'll make a pretty penny this year, 'cause I grow my own feed where others have to buy some of theirs.

Now, I have a local butcher that does my beef, he comes with a trailer, takes them one by one, weighs them, gives me CASH and that's the end of it.

I have no idea and really don't care what he charges the customer and I've never asked him.

A couple reasons why food prices are going to skyrocket or M-T shelves will appear more often, in the coming months:

From a truckers standpoint:

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/soaring-diesel-fuel-impact-inflation-energy-costs/2022/07/20/id/1079542/

From a farmers standpoint:

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/myers-idaho-farming/2022/07/29/id/1081019/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM360602_07302022&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010102w7gl6o

Here we go again

https://ktvz.com/news/ap-oregon-northwest/2022/08/10/eastern-oregon-historic-flour-mill-destroyed-in-fire/

Dave58 wrote:https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/emergency/msc-regional-emergency-2022-011-8-26-2022-illinois-indiana-michigan-and-wisconsin#.Yww6JVMHmdc.link

Summary of situation.
On the 24th, a fire shut down a refinery that supplies motor and jet fuel to IL, IN, MI and WI. It is unknown how long the refinery will be shut down.

The above link it to an emergency order, allowing commercial truck drivers to ignore their limit on hours behind the wheel. The rule is found here:
https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-49/subtitle-B/chapter-III/subchapter-B/part-395/subpart-A/section-395.3

The only reason I can think of, for this, is to allow truckers to bring motor fuel to "gas" stations, from further away. However, I am not sure if this allows truckers carrying hazmat (fuel) to ignore that same limitation. (We are talking about the government, of course... )

Its seems to be a never ending thing with the food and supplies

https://thehill.com/policy/3636564-how-a-railroad-strike-could-send-food-prices-soaring/

Here's another update...

https://sports.yahoo.com/amtrak-canceling-trains-railroad-unions-155145657.html..

I really hope this doesn't happen

One railroad union REJECTS purposed contract, they voted to STRIKE

Don't ya wish you would have planted a bigger garden:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/union-strike-vote-ups-the-pressure-as-white-house-scrambles-on-railroads/ar-AA11Pxby

rick1 wrote:One railroad union REJECTS purposed contract, they voted to STRIKE

Don't ya wish you would have planted a bigger garden:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/union-strike-vote-ups-the-pressure-as-white-house-scrambles-on-railroads/ar-AA11Pxby

Pretty much done with the garden , but thinking about buying a 3rd freezer

Dave58 wrote:Here's another update...

https://sports.yahoo.com/amtrak-canceling-trains-railroad-unions-155145657.html..

I really hope this doesn't happen

Not sure why you are hoping it doesn't happen.
This is sort of the natural order of things.

Above link seems to have changed.
New link address:
https://news.yahoo.com/amtrak-canceling-trains-railroad-unions-155145657.html

TRex2 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:Here's another update...

https://sports.yahoo.com/amtrak-canceling-trains-railroad-unions-155145657.html..

I really hope this doesn't happen

Not sure why you are hoping it doesn't happen.
This is sort of the natural order of things.

Above link seems to have changed.
New link address:
https://news.yahoo.com/amtrak-canceling-trains-railroad-unions-155145657.html

I hate to see the hardship this will bring if they shut the trains down, But you are right I think this seems to be the natural order of things

It's already started, stock up on pasta and rice and don't forget your yeast, you'll need it to make your bread:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-railways-halt-grain-shipments-ahead-potential-shutdown-agriculture-sources-2022-09-13/

This may have bought us a little more time to store stuff

https://apnews.com/article/biden-economy-strikes-congress-94089be6a4f469444da99fec9dde1b3e

Looks like we dodged a bullet with the RR strike , but sooner or later its going to hit the fan. Just another day to keep doing the things.

Dave58 wrote:Looks like we dodged a bullet with the RR strike , but sooner or later its going to hit the fan. Just another day to keep doing the things.

Hopefully we dodged the bullet, over 100,000 people have to vote to accept it and many aren't happy that they didn't get everything they wanted.

Dave58 wrote:

TRex2 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:Here's another update...
https://sports.yahoo.com/amtrak-canceling-trains-railroad-unions-155145657.html..
I really hope this doesn't happen

Not sure why you are hoping it doesn't happen.
This is sort of the natural order of things.
Above link seems to have changed.
New link address:
https://news.yahoo.com/amtrak-canceling-trains-railroad-unions-155145657.html

I hate to see the hardship this will bring if they shut the trains down, But you are right I think this seems to be the natural order of things

I had to think this over, for a bit, to insure I got it right.

I don't mind the hardship.

Hardship is what makes most people hardy. One of the maladies we face, as a county, is that most people under 40 have never really know hardship.

The trains run. Of course they run. They have always run.

The groceries are full of food. Of course, they are full of food. They are always full of food.

The bank keeps your money safe. Of course the bank keeps your money safe. Banks have always kept your money safe.

Those of us who have been around for a while know that what I wrote above is garbage, but the majority of those under 40 actually believe what I wrote above. Many will pay lip service to being prepared, and others will scoff at preppers, calling them hoarders. But only about 4% of the population are preppers. The rest don't believe anything can go seriously wrong.

I wrote, not too many months ago, that most of them learned the wrong lessons from The Covid Years. They learned that a pandemic, or any other natural disaster isn't so bad. In fact, things got pretty easy for a lot of them. They stayed home from work and the government gave them money. All you have to do is trust and obey the government. (Some people will recognize some of those words, from their hymnal.)

Went to Wal-Mart this morning just out of curiosity. Our daughter lives 30 miles away and told me their local walmart was out of sugar except for the 1lb boxes... Our local store was out of sugar and a shelf stocker told us it had been 4 days since they had any. They told us that the trucks were sporadic and never full.. The most interesting thing was the amount of people complaining about empty shelves and high prices. I think the young folks are starting to wake up just a bit...

I went to walmart this morning and all their shelves were pretty much full, they even got hunting ammo in stock and their gun racks are full.

rick1 wrote:I went to walmart this morning and all their shelves were pretty much full, they even got hunting ammo in stock and their gun racks are full.

Did you check behind the items at the front of the shelves?

My local supermarket shelves look full. but once I pulled down the first two items, there were only a couple more at the back of the shelf rather than the full/mostly full shelves I'm used to from the pre-COVID days.

dmwalsh568 wrote:

rick1 wrote:I went to walmart this morning and all their shelves were pretty much full, they even got hunting ammo in stock and their gun racks are full.

Did you check behind the items at the front of the shelves?

My local supermarket shelves look full. but once I pulled down the first two items, there were only a couple more at the back of the shelf rather than the full/mostly full shelves I'm used to from the pre-COVID days.

Ya got me dm, I never thought about checking behind the items.

dmwalsh568 wrote:

rick1 wrote:I went to walmart this morning and all their shelves were pretty much full, they even got hunting ammo in stock and their gun racks are full.

Did you check behind the items at the front of the shelves?

My local supermarket shelves look full. but once I pulled down the first two items, there were only a couple more at the back of the shelf rather than the full/mostly full shelves I'm used to from the pre-COVID days.

They call it "Fronting"

It is a thing retailers have done for more than 40 years.
(That is when I first ran into it.)

I guess it makes the shoppers feel better, and more likely to come back to that market place, again. Most of what we see today is meant to appeal to our sense of safety and security.

In reality, "fronting" is used for just about every display of goods, and hides the fact that our civilization is simply a thin veneer over the chaos and starvation that could overtake us at any time.

rick1 wrote:I went to walmart this morning and all their shelves were pretty much full, they even got hunting ammo in stock and their gun racks are full.

I'm getting our daughter started on bucket food storage, so I've been shopping for staples. I was also at my local WalMart today and the pasta isle is almost empty! Flour & sugar were low about a week ago. My local grocery had a sale on pasta, last week and ALL that sale pasta was gone by Monday. Went to Sam's club and the pasta selection is down to only 3 choices: Spaghetti, Penni & Elbow. Couldn't find any dry hashbrowns. (I like to store them in a bucket, because there are no added oils, just potatoes).

ReadyMom wrote:

rick1 wrote:I went to walmart this morning and all their shelves were pretty much full, they even got hunting ammo in stock and their gun racks are full.

I'm getting our daughter started on bucket food storage, so I've been shopping for staples. I was also at my local WalMart today and the pasta isle is almost empty! Flour & sugar were low about a week ago.  My local grocery had a sale on pasta, last week and ALL that sale pasta was gone by Monday. Went to Sam's club and the pasta selection is down to only 3 choices: Spaghetti, Penni & Elbow. Couldn't find any dry hashbrowns. (I like to store them in a bucket, because there are no added oils, just potatoes).

We like frozen hashbrowns from time to time and the last 2 weeks our local grocery has been out. They have a little blue tag saying they are sorry but they are temporarily out of stock..

Keep doing the things

Stopped in Crackle Barrel yesterday for a bite after my wifes treatment and they were out of any kind of jelly..

I have also been reading in the news about Wal-Mart and other big box stores canceling large orders from their suppliers.. Kinda strange right before X-Mas

Keep shopping & stocking!

ReadyMom wrote:Keep shopping & stocking!

Just out of curiosity I went on Wal-Mart website and looked up great value sugar 25 lb bag and they show that they are out in the walmarts in 6 different towns. My wife bakes a lot and we always buy 50 lb at a time.

So now it like OK challenge accepted

rick1 wrote:I went to walmart this morning and all their shelves were pretty much full, they even got hunting ammo in stock and their gun racks are full.

I have been seeing more ammo, but still nothing for a 410.
Haven't seen 410 ammo, on local shelves, for over two years.

ReadyMom wrote:I'm getting our daughter started on bucket food storage, so I've been shopping for staples. I was also at my local WalMart today and the pasta isle is almost empty! Flour & sugar were low about a week ago.  My local grocery had a sale on pasta, last week and ALL that sale pasta was gone by Monday. Went to Sam's club and the pasta selection is down to only 3 choices: Spaghetti, Penni & Elbow. Couldn't find any dry hashbrowns. (I like to store them in a bucket, because there are no added oils, just potatoes).

I had not thought of dry hashbrowns.
Thanks for the tip.
Of course, they are out of stock here, too.

TRex2 wrote:
I had not thought of dry hashbrowns.
Thanks for the tip.
Of course, they are out of stock here, too.

 

I have scoured all our local stores and can't find them. Next I searched the internet. You can find little individual 4 ounce boxes. Not the big boxes. You CAN find the big boxes (50 servings) on Ebay for almost $100/box!!!

I finally found them at 'The Restaurant Store': https://www.therestaurantstore.com/items/611544 for $13.99/box. A lot more expensive than when I first started buying them, but that's the cheapest, now. We have this store a few min away, locally. So I may 'bite-the-bullet' and get a couple. I'll check out their pasta selection & a few other things while there, too.

If you have any ethnic grocers near you .... you might want to consider taking a look to see what they have, as well.

Just make yourself some thick mashed potatoes and fry them. Times were a little rough when I was a kid, the coal mines were only working 2 or 3 days a week and every family would make x-tra thick mashed potatoes and just fry them to a crisp.

We still fry them, but we use the instant potatoes that you mix with water and they are just as good as the real potatoes.

Try it, you'll like it and you'll save yourself some money.

P.S. Get the instant potatoes that you mix with water, it's a good thing to have on hand if the SHTF, we got lots of them in sealed buckets with O2/moisture packets.

rick1 wrote:

P.S. Get the instant potatoes that you mix with water, it's a good thing to have on hand if the SHTF, we got lots of them in sealed buckets with O2/moisture packets.

I DO have lots of them!! Mashed potatoes are my 'comfort food'

ReadyMom wrote:...
I finally found them at 'The Restaurant Store': https://www.therestaurantstore.com/items/611544 for $13.99/box. A lot more expensive than when I first started buying them, but that's the cheapest, now. We have this store a few min away, locally. ...

That IS really expensive.

I can buy canned, diced, potatoes cheaper than that. Not the same, I realize, but for that price, I will go the cheaper route.

This sounds odd considering I live in farm country with quite a few Turkey houses close by

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resurgent-bird-flu-wiping-egg-130109558.html

Dave58 wrote:This sounds odd considering I live in farm country with quite a few Turkey houses close by

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resurgent-bird-flu-wiping-egg-130109558.html

No wonder eggs at the store cost so much, glad I got my own.

Looks like I'll have to take a couple grandkids for fall turkey season or just buy a ham.

Pumpkin is high priced too. We've already cooked down some pumpkin and froze it for pies.

Just a heads up. This is day#8 and still no 25lb bags of sugar at Wal-Mart..

I ordered mine on line and they are supposed to come today. I am going to order another 50 lb today.
I was on Amazon and 25 lb of sugar is $54.00

I have been telling people to stock up, for so long that my wife calls me Jeremiah. (He stood at the city gate and warned people for 23 years, that Nebuchadnezzar was going to come and destroy the city, and still, they did not change their wicked ways.)

If I Recall Correctly, someone on here wrote an article, or linked to an article, about when it is too late to prep. I think we may be getting there (depending on how the next 3 months go).

Here we go again. Just inn time for Thanksgiving

https://news.yahoo.com/bird-flu-spreads-southern-california-120013425.html

OPEC to cut production by 1 million barrels a day, fuel has already jumped .50 cents on the left coast. Price of goods will soar even higher once the production cuts take affect.

Hope you all got your Xmas shopping done.

https://www.businessinsider.com/opec-mulls-oil-production-cut-risks-angering-us-2022-10?op=1

Opec has stepped up their game

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/05/oil-opec-imposes-deep-production-cuts-in-a-bid-to-shore-up-prices.html

Possible railroad workers strike back on the table, BMWED members vote against new contract:

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2022/10/10/bmwed-union-bnsf-railroad-deal-strike.html

rick1 wrote:Possible railroad workers strike back on the table, BMWED members vote against new contract:
https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2022/10/10/bmwed-union-bnsf-railroad-deal-strike.html

I heard the strike isn't until Nov 19th, so we have a month to "stack it to the rafters." (buzz phrase making the rounds a few months ago)

TRex2 wrote:

rick1 wrote:Possible railroad workers strike back on the table, BMWED members vote against new contract:
https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2022/10/10/bmwed-union-bnsf-railroad-deal-strike.html

I heard the strike isn't until Nov 19th, so we have a month to "stack it to the rafters." (buzz phrase making the rounds a few months ago)

Its a good catch phrase. We are canning potatoes today

More problems

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mississippi-river-approaching-record-low-water-levels-threatening-commercial-traffic-11665748981

Dave58 wrote:More problems
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mississippi-river-approaching-record-low-water-levels-threatening-commercial-traffic-11665748981

That article is behind a pay wall, so here are a couple free ones:
https://weather.com/news/news/2022-10-13-mississippi-river-drought-low-water-levels-impacts
and
https://weather.com/news/news/2022-10-13-mississippi-river-drought-low-water-levels-impacts

That first one says:

That has caused shippers to turn to more expensive rail and truck transport that can cost five times as much as a barge shipment.

Higher shipping costs for grains and fertilizers could lead to higher food costs in your local grocery store — even as farmers who grow the food are getting less because their harvest is piling up, according to the University of Arkansas.

An increase in the price of steel could boost the cost of a new car. A late coal shipment to a power plant may cause electricity to cost more. Even the price of a gallon of gasoline could rise as more tractor-trailers take to the highways and increase demand.

“One 15-barge tow has the same freight capacity as 940 semi trucks," Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, told Bloomberg.

And the effects could linger. Fertilizer that should be moving north on the river now to be applied in November isn't moving.

“The biggest issue is planning for next year,” said Hunter Biram, extension economist with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. With fertilizer, "That cost is already high and we don’t know yet how much higher that could go."

Just found this on ZeroHedge .. I don't know how true it is

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/food-crisis-2023-going-be-far-worse-most-people-would-dare-imagine

Dave58 wrote:Just found this on ZeroHedge .. I don't know how true it is

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/food-crisis-2023-going-be-far-worse-most-people-would-dare-imagine

It's not crazy talk, it's just rationally thinking about all the negative pressures on food production and transportation, and what might happen as a result.

Things will continue to get more expensive here in the USA, but food riots in third world nations wouldn't come as a surprise to me. Sigh.

Dave58 wrote:Just found this on ZeroHedge .. I don't know how true it is
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/food-crisis-2023-going-be-far-worse-most-people-would-dare-imagine

General rule of thumb is that if it is on ZeroHedge, it is true, although it may take longer to come into reality, than the author's predict.

I can't think of anything he has said that didn't eventually come to pass.