Threats to our Food Supply

TRex2 wrote:Latest from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (we may despise their politics, but for now, they are a good source for certain information.

This report is for January, so ...
...
Now, I am not certain about their math, as I get about 29.0%. Another way of putting it is we have about 106 days reserves. The first week in January, we had 112 days reserves. As I said in my previous posting, when this drops to 90 days, prices will begin to rise (more than what they have been rising). If it gets below 70 days, prices will spike upwards until consumption goes down.  We could see rising prices this summer. Let me rephrase that, since we are already seeing rising prices, due to higher labor, fertilizer and fuel prices.

This will be more price increases, on top of that.

Global cereal markets tighten as demand remains strong in 2020/21; record wheat production in 2021 could lead to higher stocks in 2021/22
Release date: 06/05/2021

FAO’s forecast for global cereal production in 2020 has been raised by 1.7 million tonnes this month to 2 767 million tonnes, 2.1 percent above the 2019 output. The month-on-month increase almost entirely reflects upward revisions to coarse grain output forecasts in several countries in Africa. As for rice, officials in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Guinea indicated lower production turnouts than previously foreseen by FAO, outweighing an upgrade for Madagascar and resulting in a slight downward revision to the 2020 global rice production forecast, which nonetheless remains set at an all-time record high.

The forecast for world cereal utilization for 2020/21 has been raised by 6.0 million tonnes from the April figure to 2 783 million tonnes, an increase of 2.7 percent from the 2019/20 level. This month’s increase stems mainly from a 4.2-million-tonne upward revision to the 2020/21 maize utilization forecast, largely reflecting greater than earlier anticipated feed uses in China and the United States of America (USA). This upward revision brings the forecast for total utilization of coarse grains to 3.4 percent above the 2019/20 level. China is expected to account for nearly 60 percent of the year-on-year anticipated growth in the feed use of coarse grains. Nearly unchanged this month, total wheat utilization in 2020/21 is forecast to exceed the previous season’s level by 1.7 percent, with an expected rise in feed use as the primary driver, for the first time since 2011/12 and almost entirely occurring in China. FAO’s forecast for world rice utilization in 2020/21 is changed only fractionally from April’s expectations, now pointing to a 1.9 percent annual expansion and a record high level, underpinned by an anticipated expansion in food uses and a recovery in feed uptake.

FAO’s forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the 2021 seasons has been revised downwards by 2.8 million tonnes to 805 million tonnes, representing a decline of 2.3 percent from their opening levels. As a result of this downward revision, on top of the higher utilization expectations, the global cereals stocks-to-use ratio would stand at 28.3 percent, down from 29.6 percent in 2019/20 and a hitting a seven-year low. The forecast for global coarse grain stocks has been cut by 4.1 million tonnes from last month’s report, now falling 7.4 percent below opening levels largely on a likely drawdown of maize inventories in the USA and China. A slight upward revision to world wheat inventories since last month has lifted the forecast to 2.8 percent above the opening level, with over 40 percent of the year-on-year increase foreseen to occur in China. Following a 400 000 tonne upward revision, world rice stocks at the close of 2020/21 are seen on-par with their opening levels, as anticipated drawdowns in Bangladesh, China and Indonesia, primarily, will likely be compensated by expected buildups in India, Thailand and the USA.

Dave58 wrote:https://www.kait8.com/2021/05/12/barge-traffic-standstill-wake-bridge-closure/

rick1 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:https://www.kait8.com/2021/05/12/barge-traffic-standstill-wake-bridge-closure/

It's only a small crack. I've driven old trucks with frames worse then that.

TRex2 wrote:

rick1 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:https://www.kait8.com/2021/05/12/barge-traffic-standstill-wake-bridge-closure/

It's only a small crack. I've driven old trucks with frames worse then that.

This is our "Suez canal has ship stuck in it" moment.

Dave58 wrote:https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57149744

Dave58 wrote:https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57149744

rick1 wrote:Something of the same thing but different here in the U.S.:

https://thecounter.org/biden-administration-farmers-conservation-reserve-crp-usda-vilsack/

“Overall, we think the changes are good, but also they could still be better,” said Anne Schechinger, senior economic analyst with the Environmental Working Group. CRP typically only takes land out of production for 10 years at a time, and many farmers opt not to renew after a decade—many of the environmental benefits are erased as soon as the soil is plowed under and crops are replanted. Schechinger published a report that found almost 16 million acres were taken out of the reserve between 2007 and 2014 after landowners opted not to re-rent them to USDA. The government had spent more than $7 billion to preserve those acres. “A huge amount of money was essentially paid and then lost when those acres go back into farming,” Schechinger said.

A coalition of 25 military and national security experts, including former advisers to Ronald Reagan and George W Bush, has warned that climate change poses a "significant risk to U.S. national security and international security" that requires more attention from the U.S. federal government.

Dave58 wrote:Whoever is pulling the strings is not going to stop until they have assumed .......

https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-meatpacking-idUSL1N2N02FK

Dave58 wrote:Just found this I don't know if there is anything to it or not

https://www.guilded.gg/Ice-Age-Farmer/groups/k3yZjreD/channels/dc7ca137-1c79-4b42-8457-a4fd0d902d1a/chat?messageId=0ea072b0-16ed-4892-98f6-092d44f1f23c

Dave58 wrote:Whoever is pulling the strings is not going to stop until they have assumed ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-meatpacking-idUSL1N2N02FK

rick1 wrote:And just look at what the government pays (in billions of dollars) in subsidies to farmers to not plant corn. And the head clown in DC is planning to pay more because plants cause climate change:

https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=corn

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:This is another perspective on the general big picture situation
https://youtu.be/eE_EegTz2m8

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:Chalk up another threat

https://www.beefcentral.com/news/jbs-global-meat-processing-operations-paralysed-by-cyber-attack/

Blondie wrote:And now all their processing plants are offline nationwide:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cyber-attack-hits-jbs-global-meat-processing-operations

Dave58 wrote:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-food-prices-surge-highest-080152199.html

With the reservoirs continuing to drop, the expected cuts next year will reduce the Central Arizona Project’s water supply by nearly a third and shrink the amount flowing to farmlands in Pinal County.

Managers of Arizona's water agencies say they have detailed plans in place to deal with the reductions in water supplies over the next five years, even if the drought continues to worsen. These initial steps to cope with shortages are playing out while the seven states that depend on the river prepare for difficult talks on post-2026 rules, negotiating a plan for adapting to a river that’s yielding less as the watershed grows progressively warmer with climate change.

Officials who manage Arizona’s 336-mile Central Arizona Project Canal, which runs from Lake Havasu to Tucson, have known since plans were first drawn up for the system that they hold the lowest priority and could face cuts in a shortage. Such a scenario wasn’t on the horizon in the years after the canal was completed in the early 1990s, but the situation has changed as years of drought and higher temperatures have reduced the flow of the river.

Dave58 wrote:https://www.agweb.com/news/business/technology/while-america-slept-china-stole-farm
Kinda long but a pretty good read

We send our exchange students to China to learn culture, art and dance. They send theirs here, to study nuclear physics and high energy lasers.

“The FBI woke up to this threat far too late, and now we are in very deep,” Mills continues. “It is the CCP’s goal to steal, glean, obtain, transcribe, and photograph anything of value from the U.S., and the agriculture sector is right at the top. China is a net food importer and that is a strategic vulnerability of the CCP.”

Dave58 wrote:https://agroinsurance.com/en/france-up-to-95-of-losses-for-apple-growers-in-the-cher/

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:

Dave58 wrote:https://agroinsurance.com/en/france-up-to-95-of-losses-for-apple-growers-in-the-cher/

Little known fact....

Most of the apples in stores are very old, some even up to a year or more.


Think about it. Apples can only be grown in temperate climates. So the northern and southern hemispheres each have 1 growing and harvesting season.  

Apples get harvested, sent to major distributors then they are usually coated with a thin layer of wax and then stored in a nitrogen blanketed warehouse. The wax layer and the nitrogen displace the oxygen and protect the apples from spoiling which can allow them to retain freshness for a year or 2.  Then the apples are sent out in bags to stores as needed through the year.


So potentially a crop failure this year means apple scarcity next year or the following year.

Crazy right?  This is how complex things can get that most don't realize

Dave58 wrote:

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:

Dave58 wrote:https://agroinsurance.com/en/france-up-to-95-of-losses-for-apple-growers-in-the-cher/

Little known fact....

Most of the apples in stores are very old, some even up to a year or more.


Think about it. Apples can only be grown in temperate climates. So the northern and southern hemispheres each have 1 growing and harvesting season.  

Apples get harvested, sent to major distributors then they are usually coated with a thin layer of wax and then stored in a nitrogen blanketed warehouse. The wax layer and the nitrogen displace the oxygen and protect the apples from spoiling which can allow them to retain freshness for a year or 2.  Then the apples are sent out in bags to stores as needed through the year.


So potentially a crop failure this year means apple scarcity next year or the following year.

Crazy right?  This is how complex things can get that most don't realize

Who knew ?? We have a store that has its own orchard and sells Apples and other fruit the year round. It never really dawned on me about the way they stored it....

Thanks for the heads up

Dave58 wrote:https://www.wsj.com/articles/supermarkets-are-stockpiling-inventory-as-food-costs-rise-11625572980

Dave58 wrote:https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wither-away-die-us-pacific-northwest-heat-wave-bakes-wheat-fruit-crops-2021-07-12/

Dave58 wrote:... amazing... I found King Arthur as high as $35 for 10lb
...

TRex2 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:... amazing... I found King Arthur as high as $35 for 10lb
...

I don't buy flower in bulk, so what would you have considered a "normal" price?
(my suspicion is about $16, since I usually use 10 cents an ounce as a measuring point for grains)

Dave58 wrote:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-says-expect-real-food-175308088.html

President Biden said Thursday that a food shortage is "gonna be real" following the sanctions that were placed on Russia by the U.S. government as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion into Ukraine.

"With regard to food shortage, yes we did talk about food shortages, and it's gonna be real," Biden said during a press conference at a NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, following a meeting with other world leaders.

"The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia," he added. "It’s imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well."

Dave58 wrote:I was setting here drinking my coffee and reading the news and suddenly it hit me.....

The Pres. made public that there is going to be a food shortage.. This will be worse than announcing a Ice storm is coming every.. Everybody will decide now is the time to stock up and I think this has the potential to go sideways very quickly ..

So if you need to maybe grab a little something extra now is the time..
...

TRex2 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:I was setting here drinking my coffee and reading the news and suddenly it hit me.....

The Pres. made public that there is going to be a food shortage.. This will be worse than announcing a Ice storm is coming every.. Everybody will decide now is the time to stock up and I think this has the potential to go sideways very quickly ..

So if you need to maybe grab a little something extra now is the time..
...

I was thinking the same thing, as I watched this morning's news.

Together, Russia and Ukraine account for 30 percent of the world’s exported wheat, and the Agricultural Market Information System—an international group focusing on global food-policy initiatives—estimates that 25 countries source at least half of their supplies from the two countries.

In the United States, the shortage will mean higher prices for bread and cereal, says Christopher Bosso, professor of public policy at Northeastern, because the country is among the world’s main grain producers already and supplies much of its own demand. The jump in price is more tied to rising fuel and shipping costs than production costs.

“Even if the war is resolved fairly quickly, it may still be several years of having very tight commodity supplies,”

rick1 wrote:Interesting read. More interesting reads at the bottom of the page of the first link, very interesting reads.

Corn Pop says the Ukraine war is going to affect our food supply, but carrot top says it wouldn't have an impact on the U.S.. Which one is telling the truth:

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2022/03/24/biden-warns-america-a-food-shortage-is-coming-n2605004

https://nypost.com/2022/03/17/looming-food-shortages-is-worlds-next-slow-moving-disaster/

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/wheat-prices-food-shortage-fears