Financial Crisis-2021 Posts-Archive

Inflation concerns? I'm thinking this is more like a hair on fire financial crisis. We are fast outpacing Jimmy Carter's 16-18% inflation rate.

Time to begin a thread on all things inflation/hyperinflation ?

Blondie wrote:Inflation concerns? I'm thinking this is more like a hair on fire financial crisis.  We are fast outpacing Jimmy Carter's 16-18% inflation rate.

Time to begin a thread on all things inflation/hyperinflation ?

 Fine with me!

rick1 wrote:A good article on inflation concerns:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/markets-have-a-thing-or-two-to-tell-the-fed-about-inflation/articleshow/83769630.cms

This is pretty much two paragraphs of everything that is wrong:

He added that the price data was confusing. “We have to be very humble about our ability to really try to draw a signal out of it,” he said. “It might take some patience to really see what’s happening.”

The shift to a generally flattening yield curve and lower long-term inflation expectations may keep the Fed from actually carrying out the tapering its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases in the near term, let alone raising rates as soon as late next year or early 2023.

"The price data was confusing"
- Ummm, isn't it your job to understand it?

"We have to be very humble about our ability"
- when has the fed ever been humble?

"shift to a generally flattening yield curve"
-  this is always a sign that the economic engine is slowing down,

"its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases"
- this is literally money the fed is pumping int our government to keep it solvent

"lower long-term inflation expectations may keep the Fed from actually carrying out the tapering"
- translation, if we can't cause inflation, we will need to keep pumping money into the government to keep it solvent, because they are spending about $1.44 Trillion more than they can afford, and it looks like we either devalue the money dramatically or risk the government going into default.

Blondie wrote:Inflation concerns? I'm thinking this is more like a hair on fire financial crisis.  We are fast outpacing Jimmy Carter's 16-18% inflation rate.

Time to begin a thread on all things inflation/hyperinflation ?

While I am expecting to see inflation in the 30% range, I am not seeing it yet.
Shadow Stats is showing about 13%. Do you have any other source?

It's hard to tease out what's real price increases versus temporary jumps because of COVID constraints on the supply chain. Some of those constraints will last for years - like chips for cars and other tech items, but some will shake out in a few months (assuming no other shocks to the system.)

Basically I expect real inflation to continue to be high for the next 6 to 9 months, then expect it to settle down. Unless there are more disruptions than normal (from Covid-D or later, or multiple Cat 5 hurricanes at once, some black swan event, etc.)

rick1 wrote:Inflation expected to raise dramatically, say Fed. Res. Powell. You should have raised a bigger garden and put some of those groundhogs in the freezer:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-inflation-wages-interest-policy-changes/

Just so that no one thinks this is all brand new, the following was clipped from the link above:

Federal Reserve says inflation should rise dramatically
BY STEPHEN GANDEL
UPDATED ON: AUGUST 27, 2020 / 5:49 PM / MONEYWATCH

Some people might think this is brand new, since, after they decided all of that, they announced that any little inflation pressure we might feel will be "transitory" and won't amount to much.

Hogwash.
They know there will be inflation, and they lie about it.

Shadowstats shows a lot worse picture.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
(Top line on the very bottom graph) about 13%.

My worst case forecast, made a few months ago, was 50% price increases from June 2021 thru Dec 2022.

rick1 wrote:

TRex2 wrote:Shadowstats shows a lot worse picture.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
(Top line on the very bottom graph) about 13%.

My worst case forecast, made a few months ago, was 50% price increases from June 2021 thru Dec 2022.

50% TRex, I sure hope your wrong, hate to see jimmy carter 2.0, it was right around 15% with him, but CD rates were as high as 18%.

Some good news, and some bad. That 50% forecast was based on Biden getting his (formerly $3500Billion vote buying bill passed, along with the tax hikes that are built into it, and getting his $15 an hour minimum wage bill passed. Those haven't happened, so, while the water is still behind the dam (potential is still there) the dam hasn't burst. Not Yet.

I do expect prices to be higher next fall, but probably only by about 20% over what we have today.

by rick1 Fri Sep 17th:
Inflation rising, the dollar worth less and if that's not enough, utility prices are going to spike, just in time for winter heating season:

The Left always, always, always engages in narrow, shallow, thinking and shortsightedness.
But we have to be on guard not to do the same, or we will fall into the same trap, from time to time.

Fox Business falls into that trap pretty often. The article compares the year's, and next year's expected prices with last years. Last year was an outlier, due to the pandemic. We should always go back to 2019 (no later than Jan 2020) to make our comparisons.

In this case, if you look back, on the graph they supplied, you will see the price is the same as we had in 2018, so the current price isn't unprecedented. Same with gasoline.

Now, energy prices are sure to go up, but we have to measure them in comparison to the prepandemic prices. As with everything else, we should expect about 20% rise, or about 75 cents a gallon rise in gasoline. The same with electricity.

Also, the article plays a little bit of the "we vs them" BS of the marxists, with "Those billions will be made on the backs of hardworking Americans who will see more of their money evaporate in the gas tank and with their winter heating bills."

We must always be on our guard to not let the marxists put stuff into our heads. If the gas company makes a billion dollars and declares a dividend on their stock, that is money for the stock holders. We may object to who owns the company (frankly, it should be the middle class citizens, living in the state where the gas is sold, but that is a different problem), but we shouldn't object to the company making a profit.

rick1 wrote:I guess since the dollar is dropping like a hot potato and inflation is rising, dollar tree is now increasing it's prices above the dollar value.

Seems people don't like that idea at all.

I am sure a lot of people in the Biden camp will not like it, because it will shine a light on the inflation they don't want us to think about.

Not all stores are getting to raise their prices yet, will be done over time.

I was at a dollar tree store down here at camp yesterday and asked the cashier what they were going to call the store now, I said a buck and a quarter store. From the office a lady shouted out, no, a dollar plus store.

https://wjon.com/dollar-tree-announces-price-increases-at-select-stores/

"DollarPlus"
Of course they will want to put a good spin on things, since they still need to attract customers.

rick1 wrote:Dig deeper into your wallet/purses to pay for gas.

Oil hit over $80.00/barrel today and is expected to go higher. Gas here at home is now $3.45/gal for regular.

Home heating oil is over $3.00/gallon.

Glad I heat with mostly wood and coal, I do have a oil hot water furnace, but rarely use it.

Thanks to the head clown    , the socialist agenda, the squad and their new green deal, you'll be paying for the next 3+ years.

Once they figure out we will pay their price the cost will never go back down

Not to make it political, but where were the demonrats when black lives matter/antifi were rioting and burning down buildings. They weren't around because they supported it, including congress people and even the vice president elect.

Supported it, and even financed it.

There was a lady on the NBC early morning news this morning, she said loud and clear, a civil war is coming and coming soon and the politicians will be first in line.

The sad part about her statement is that I really think it's going to happen.

I would not EVER watch NBC morning news (not to be confused with local news), but I agree with her.
The alternative, on our present course, is worse.

Senator Manchin is right, but I think, in the long run, the Socialists will have their way.

Well, that is what we need to prep for, anyway ...

A walk down memory lane:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5OMCVwHi5g

First time I've almost agreed with Jack Dorsey that hyperinflation isn't comimg, it's here. Congress will pass some sort of stimulus bill to make you more broke.

Not only have they lost control of the Fed, they, both sides, have lost control of literally everything. Even here, crime including homicides are spiking. Seasoned cops are walking out ove mandates and Fire and EMS are right behind them heading out the door.

I finally figured out the Klaus Schwab "You Will Own Nothing.." narrative. Hyperinflation will get so bad that you will empty your bank accounts to feed your family. You'll no longer be able to pay your mortgage or property taxes and you will have to liquidate all personal property.

Inflation once meant Price Controls. We won't entertain that again. Wall Street will lose their lunch over it.

I hate to see it called "Hyperinflation" because it doesn't and won't really fit the actual definition. Yes, there is an actual definition. (The definition is is something like 50% each month.)

But, while this won't meet that criteria, it may become the worst inflation we have seen since the Carter Presidency. Back then, we had more than 10% per year, and we are either approaching that or past it.

I suspect we will see something on the order of 30%, over the next 12 months, so I am beginning to plan for everything to be about 30% higher in price in a year.

Like most people, I am not equipped to plow though this unscathed. Most of us, though can take steps to blunt the effect, and that is what I plan to do, and recommend to others.

rick1 wrote:Is the U.S. heading towards the Carter, 1970's, stagflation, some economists are worried about that:
https://www.thebalance.com/is-us-economy-headed-for-70s-style-stagflation-5205478

I have been expecting something like this for about a year, and I have been looking for a way to deal with is. No silver bullet that I can see. Just "prep on."

rick1 wrote:...
Now crow bait biden wants to shut down another pipe line in the U.S.. If you heat with natural gas, oil, electricity, you're going to pay big, I mean big bucks  ...l

Right now, this is just noise.
Reminds me of what someone said:
If they are making a lot of commotion with one hand, be sure to watch the other, since, chances are, that is what they don't want you to see.

rick1 wrote:Steve Forbes warns of food rationing and price controls as corn pops economy is in total collapse and we are the ones that will be paying the price:

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/steve-forbes-warns-of-food-rationing-and-price-controls-as-bidens-economy-is-in-total-collapse/

Don't know if there is a better place for this, but, in addition to the above, and on a longer term, the current push for "renewable" fuels (I saw one on "renewable jet fuel") will eventually put the transportation needs of the rich in direct competition (rather than indirect competition, as it stands today) with our food supplies.

This is a source issue, rather than a supply chain issue, so maybe it should have its own thread. I just don't know where that should go, right now.

TRex2 wrote:

rick1 wrote:Steve Forbes warns of food rationing and price controls as corn pops economy is in total collapse and we are the ones that will be paying the price:

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/steve-forbes-warns-of-food-rationing-and-price-controls-as-bidens-economy-is-in-total-collapse/

Don't know if there is a better place for this, but, in addition to the above, and on a longer term, the current push for "renewable" fuels (I saw one on "renewable jet fuel") will eventually put the transportation needs of the rich in direct competition (rather than indirect competition, as it stands today) with our food supplies.

This is a source issue, rather than a supply chain issue, so maybe it should have its own thread. I just don't know where that should go, right now.

Wait for the year sometime in the near future where we have multiple industries like energy and food each competing for a resource like corn being dependent upon it as a renewable energy and food, and we have some sort of widespread weather disaster or some sort of biblical level pest infestation that decimates a vast amount of a years crop. Imagine the chaos it will cause if 30% of corn vanishes while ethanol production is slashed and available food plummets.

The bigger the lush to reduce fossil fuels and rely on something like bio ethanol for transportation the more likely the below scenario.

All it will take is some widespread drought, flooding, late freeze, or derecheos.

These derecheos in Iowa last year we're devastating if you didn't hear of it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2020_Midwest_derecho

The more we put all our eggs in one basket the more likely it will be a single point of failure

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:

TRex2 wrote:...
This is a source issue, rather than a supply chain issue, so maybe it should have its own thread. I just don't know where that should go, right now.

Wait for the year sometime in the near future where we have multiple industries like energy and food each competing for a resource like corn being dependent upon it as a renewable energy and food, and ....
...
The more we put all our eggs in one basket the more likely it will be a single point of failure

The competition between transportation (and other leisures of the rich) and food for the masses is already headed for a collision, because they are indirectly competing. Jet fuel, motor vehicle fuel and fuel for electric generation compete with fertilizer and fuel to run farm equipment.

Sooner or later, this will come to a head, as it did in 2008.
I think we will see a repeat of this article:
https://www.globalissues.org/article/758/global-food-crisis-2008

http://www.foodfirst.org/en/node/2120
The World Bank reports that global food prices rose 83% over the last three years and the FAO cites a 45% increase in their world food price index during just the past nine months. The Economist’s comparable index stands at its highest point since it was originally formulated in 1845. As of March 2008, average world wheat prices were 130% above their level a year earlier, soy prices were 87% higher, rice had climbed 74%, and maize was up 31%.
-- Institute for Food and Development Policy, May 16, 2008

Placing the food and fuel in more direct competition will result in the collision happening sooner and more suddenly.

Revelation 6:5-6 (NASB)
When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, “Come!” I looked, and behold, a black horse, and the one who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

This speaks of a time in our future when it will take a days pay (denarius) to buy enough food to feed one person for a day (quart of wheat). There are many theories about the interpretation of the last line, but most fundamentalists believe that says the rich people will still have their luxuries.

This prophesy, like many prophesies, has become regionally true from time to time during famines of the past, but at some future point it will be true for everyone, everywhere.

For anyone keeping track we just broke 29T

https://youtu.be/1RByuk5Cpps

rick1 wrote:

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:For anyone keeping track we just broke 29T

https://youtu.be/1RByuk5Cpps

In the next couple of weeks/months, you can add a couple of more T's to that from the head clowns  human infrastructure bill.

People need to think about just why they want to double the IRS's staff, I'll tell you why, they plan on taking/freezing your money, right out of the bank, if they think, just think, that your involved in money laundring, drug activity or owe the government taxes. Now, they can do that now, but they only do it to the ones they know are involved with those activities.

Right now, if you are caught with over $10,000 in your possession, law enforcement can take it, you then go through h_ll to try and get it back and that may take years plus attorney's fees. That $10,000.00 will be lowered to only several hundred dollars.

What I'm trying to say is, they're going to take your money and help pay for the demonrat, socialist bill's they have passed.

Dependent on the government from craddle to grave.

I'm done now, I gave more then my 2 cents, but only if your were willing to listen.

Civil asset forfeiture has been around for a LONG time check out the Wikipedia article on it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_forfeiture_in_the_United_States

I especially like/hate this snippet:

Although there are accessible statistics of seizures at the federal level, it often happens that the totals of forfeitures from both criminals and innocent owners are combined; for example, one report was that in 2010, government seized $2.5 billion in assets from criminals and innocent owners by forfeiture methods,[16] and the totals of assets seized incorrectly from innocent owners was not separated statistically. Further, since the United States is a federal republic with governments at both the national and state level, there are civil forfeiture seizures at the state level, which are not tracked and recorded in any central database,[12] which make it difficult to make assessments, since state laws and procedures vary widely. According to The Washington Post, federal asset forfeiture in 2014 accounted for over $5 billion going into Justice and Treasury Department coffers, while in comparison, official statistics show that the amount stolen from citizens by burglars during that same year was a mere $3.5 billion.[33]

So the government/police stole more from people than burglars....

Civil asset forfeiture has been around for a LONG time, yes, and it has been abused more since the 90's, yes.

But everyone is dirty in this game.

The article in Wikipedia is somewhat misleading, but then, so are the stats published, on the subject. Also, the references (the ones referred to in the little brackets) are from 9 and 13 years ago, so things may have changed since then.

One thing that has changed, since then, is the size of the numbers. Burglaries and Drug money movements are many times higher. I know the drug trade passed the 150 Billion a year mark, a while back. (The article from 2008 said 12 Billion.)

rick1 wrote:November inflation, ahhh, you just got to love that corn pop , inflation now at 6.8%, highest since 1982. A couple more months, we'll be back in the Carter years (1970's).

Last week Fed Chair Powell said inflation will go beyond 2022.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/inflation-cpi/2021/12/10/id/1048122/?ns_mail_uid=ed113837-94a1-4b8d-8fab-a7f206fd5031&ns_mail_job=DM283022_12102021&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010502kuhvp5

I said this, back on Oct 26th:

I suspect we will see something on the order of 30%, over the next 12 months, so I am beginning to plan for everything to be about 30% higher in price in a year.

It won't go that high, unless Biden's Build Back Butternut BS gets passed.

If it does, I am still planning for 30% price increases over the 12 months, starting when it gets passed.

Well, as I said, if Biden gets his Build Better Butternuts plan passed, price will rise by around 30% next year, but the multiple interest rate hikes could (depending on how they handle Quantitative Easing related issues) drive us straight into recession, so that we wind up with both problems.

Echo's of the Carter era, anyone?

What is more, in the 70's we had a solid manufacturing base, and wouldn't be destroyed if trade between us and a dozen other countries stopped. Now we don't. Now we import everything from plastics to pharmaceuticals, and from ascorbic acid to Zinni glasses from Asia, and a lot of our textiles from South Asia.

And there are other aggravating factors, as well. (street drugs and illegal aliens from the Mexican border, BLM and Antifa from our Universities, Soros funded DA's, etc)

America is going to find it has written checks in cannot cash.