Financial Crisis-2021 Posts-Archive

The stock marked was up, gold, silver were up, crude oil is sky rocketing and then Chairman Powell spoke (around noon). When he mentioned inflation, although may be temporary. All heck broke loose on wall street, stocks, gold, silver, cooper, etc., fell like a rock, bond market raising.

He is correct about most of what he said and I agree with him, except for one thing, the words "may be temporary".

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/04/fed-chairman-powell-says-economic-reopening-could-cause-inflation-to-pick-up-temporarily.html

The stock marked was up, gold, silver were up, crude oil is sky rocketing and then Chairman Powell spoke (around noon). When he mentioned inflation, although may be temporary. All heck broke loose on wall street, stocks, gold, silver, cooper, etc., fell like a rock, bond market raising.

He is correct about most of what he said and I agree with him, except for one thing, the words "may be temporary".

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/04/fed-chairman-powell-says-economic-reopening-could-cause-inflation-to-pick-up-temporarily.html

   rick1 wrote:
   The stock marked was up, gold, silver were up, crude oil is sky rocketing and then Chairman Powell spoke (around noon). When he mentioned inflation, although may be temporary. All heck broke loose on wall street, stocks, gold, silver, cooper, etc., fell like a rock,

Figures. I just ordered and received my first ever purchase of silver rounds.  Was planning on doing it again, after cashing in a jar of loose change. But I guess I should still get it, since it's a few dollars cheaper now. Right?  (I'm learning ... hubby thinks its totally unnecessary ... but what wife ALWAYS listens to her hubby   .

   ReadyMom wrote:

       rick1 wrote:
       The stock marked was up, gold, silver were up, crude oil is sky rocketing and then Chairman Powell spoke (around noon). When he mentioned inflation, although may be temporary. All heck broke loose on wall street, stocks, gold, silver, cooper, etc., fell like a rock,

   Figures. I just ordered and received my first ever purchase of silver rounds.  Was planning on doing it again, after cashing in a jar of loose change. But I guess I should still get it, since it's a few dollars cheaper now. Right?  (I'm learning ... hubby thinks its totally unnecessary ... but what wife ALWAYS listens to her hubby Cool  ).

Keeping my eye on the 10 yr. rates. Last week they were saying 1.5% was enough to cause turmoil, this week it's 1.75% will cause market turmoil.

What the talking heads don't say is a lot of investors take a line of credit to invest when rates are near zero. When rates climb, money is more expensive to play the market with. And investors begin to pull out of the market.

Keeping my eye on the 10 yr. rates. Last week they were saying 1.5% was enough to cause turmoil, this week it's 1.75% will cause market turmoil.

Let's see how today plays out. I think Friday is the most interesting day for the market. If today ends down (which based on this week so far) is more likely than not it might really show a lot of uncertainty and unease. I think some investors are getting shaky hands.

Take it with a grain of salt but,

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/04/cramer-says-investors-are-in-denial-about-stocks-the-sell-off-is-real.html

Cramers take on the current Market

Well, in general, the value of stocks is going to go down. How much, and for how long, I don't know.

The question is, will inflation raise their prices, even as they go down in value?

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:
Let's see how today plays out. I think Friday is the most interesting day for the market. If today ends down (which based on this week so far) is more likely than not it might really show a lot of uncertainty and unease. I think some investors are getting shaky hands.

   rick1 wrote:

     

 Drinkthekoolaid wrote:
       Let's see how today plays out. I think Friday is the most interesting day for the market. If today ends down (which based on this week so far) is more likely than not it might really show a lot of uncertainty and unease.  I think some investors are getting shaky hands.

Well Drink, they're all down again and it doesn't look like they'll go up before the end of the day.

We're definitely in "correction" territory just this week alone. Many tech and growth stocks have been absolutely hammered losing 10-20% this week alone.

The thing to watch is does this trend continue into a panic sell off and/or recession,
Or,
Do enough people think this is a good "on sale" price to buy back in and load up again.

Does the drop continue or will people buy the dip and absorb the correction.

It's definitely worth monitoring.

Looks like the market is pulling out of its early down turn, up more then 1% in all three sectors.

What a wild ride it is. Silver and gold still down, oil up over 3%.

Financial people are predicting a higher inflation rate and they blame the $1.9 trillion dollar plan that's in the senate waiting for a vote.

They indicate there is just too much wasteful spending in it and we really don't need it right now because states are starting to open up and people are going back to work.

For what it's worth, here the inflation rate prediction for fiscal year 2021:

https://www.forecasts.org/inflation.htm

Rick, CPI now excludes housing, food, utilities and oil (gasoline). After all, nobody uses any of these!

Or, the government's newest gimmick, chained CPI that says when times get hard, a consumer trades down. Usually shop Macy's? Hard times hit, you go to Kohls. Like Whole Foods for groceries? You'll shop Aldi's or Walmart. It's a way of keeping those on Social Security from getting a meaningful raise.

Gasoline here has gone up 34% since Christmas. I'm calling $4 by summer. 2008 Part II.

I think REAL inflation is 15-16% and growing.

The PPT stepped in today, no doubt. Stocks rallied and bonds didn't tank. More helicopter $.

Blondie, I agree, gas is now $3.00/gallon here right now, I say $4.00/gallon by memorial day.

Already products at the local grocery stores around here have already increased.

Here's what they're saying about food prices. Look at the bottom of the page and see what pork, soy beans, oils, fats, etc. is expected to increase by.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings/

The CPI hasn't measured real inflation in decades. First, they have been cheating, by substituting lesser products for the original ones, and secondly, they don't directly measure energy or housing costs. They justify this by saying that it gets baked into the cost of everything else, but that is only half true. The real reason they don't include those is because they are cyclic and very erratic, so they would have to include a lot of "seasonal adjustments" like they do for unemployment. Too much trouble.

The cheating by substitution in the CPI can be overcome by looking at this index:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
They don't show inflation at 15% yet, but I expect it will hit that pretty soon.


Gasoline, I don't measure from month to month, since it is cyclic, and last year the regular cycle was interfered with by the pandemic (remember, at one time the contract delivery price of crude dropped below zero). Looking back about two years gives a better view:
https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB_/W?anticache=1615047854
Looking back two years (you have to adjust the little slider at the bottom) you can see that we are only about 10% higher than two years ago. But that will change. I expect to see things change dramatically in the near to mid term future, due to new regulations.

That chart gives the wholesale price, and you can see how much your price gets inflated over that by looking at this map:
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?lat=38.75388711119993&lng=-81.913853625&z=5
Wholesale usually sits at the devide between the bottom two blocks in the legend of that map. If you are paying $3.00 now, you are paying about 85 cents in transportation and taxes. That amount won't change much, from month to month.
I expect wholesale to increase by almost a dollar, although it might take longer than the usual "Memorial Day" point, to reach the top of the curve this year.

TRex, you mean our government is cheating on reports, I can't believe that. I bet ya Cuomo doesn't believe that either.

Gas, yesterday was $3.00, this morning it's $3.10 and yes I can see $4.00 by memorial day.

I went to the store this morning for the wife. I looked at their beef chuck roast, 2 months ago it was $4.99/lb, this morning it was $6.99/lb.

Glad I raise my own beef and chickens.

Prices are most certainly going up

 

 Drinkthekoolaid wrote:
   Prices are most certainly going up

Absolutely. I am seeing some increases here, just not 15%. I think it is uneven, and some regions are worse than others. I suspect if you could do a detailed study, you would find the states with highest fatality rates and most strict lockdowns are getting more inflation that those of us who didn't have to go through as much of that. Or maybe look at it by population density.
Pennsylvania has a much higher population density than my region.

   

rick1 wrote:
   TRex, you mean our government is cheating on reports, I can't believe that. I bet ya Cuomo doesn't believe that either.
   Gas, yesterday was $3.00, this morning it's $3.10 and yes I can see $4.00 by memorial day.
   I went to the store this morning for the wife. I looked at their beef chuck roast, 2 months ago it was $4.99/lb, this morning it was $6.99/lb.
   Glad I raise my own beef and chickens.

I am certain gas will hit $4.00 where you are, but I think, this year, it will be a little later than usual.

I have to go work on my "food and famine" report now

Get ready for higher grocery bills:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/get-ready-higher-grocery-bills-rest-year-n1263897

rick1 wrote:
Get ready for higher grocery bills:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/get-ready-higher-grocery-bills-rest-year-n1263897

We have a garden and chickens. CartoonHen

Still thinking hard about rabbits

 Dave58 wrote:

   

   rick1 wrote:
       Get ready for higher grocery bills:

       https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/get-ready-higher-grocery-bills-rest-year-n1263897

We have a garden and chickens. CartoonHen

   Still thinking hard about rabbits

Don't think Dave, do it. If you don't like it after awhile, let them go loose or give them away.

Thanks1

I was looking for a rabbit, but couldn't find one.

Hey ReadyMom, what's the chances of getting a rabbit.

The going price for rabbits around here is 10 to 20 dollars...

I gotta get my cages built first

Consumer price index report from 4 days ago. Prices have not seen this increase since 2011:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

   rick1 wrote:

I was looking for a rabbit, but couldn't find one.

   Hey ReadyMom, what's the chances of getting a rabbit.

Here ya go:
                 

You're a trip ReadyMom. Thank You-Animated

Thanks

ReadyMom wrote:

rick1 wrote:

I was looking for a rabbit, but couldn't find one.

Hey ReadyMom, what's the chances of getting a rabbit.

Here ya go:

rick1 wrote:
...

I was looking for a rabbit, but couldn't find one.

Hey ReadyMom, what's the chances of getting a rabbit.

ReadyMom was really quick, considering how long Elmer Fudd has been hunting for one.

   TRex2 wrote:

       

rick1 wrote:
       ...

       I was looking for a rabbit, but couldn't find one.

       Hey ReadyMom, what's the chances of getting a rabbit.

ReadyMom was really quick, considering how long Elmer Fudd has been hunting for one.

That's why we hired ReadyMom, always on the ball.

Just here to serve, guys!  

BTW: Did you see all the NEW ones we can choose from in the toolbar, above??? Was that always there??? I honestly can't remember

10+ Steps to Take Now for the Upcoming Economic Collapse
https://www.askaprepper.com/10-steps-to-take-now-for-the-upcoming-economic-collapse/

 (SNIP) ... No country can lose that many businesses and jobs, without it having a major impact on the overall economy. We’ve already gone way past the statistics from the Great Recession, next stop is to see if we beat out the Great Depression.

With that in mind, we need to be preparing for whatever form this coming economic collapse takes. ---CONTINUED---

Consumer prices have raised the fastest since September 2008, means inflation, which means heading towards a recession. Unless we quit printing money and the feds raise the interest rate and neither are going to happen. So hang onto your boots boys and girls because the government is coming to take them from ya:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/consumer-price-index-april-2021

Warren Buffet had a simple comment when asked about hyperinflation at the Berkshire-Hathaway shareholders meeting.

Buffet said as long as people are out there opening their wallets and willing to pay these prices, hyperinflation will continue.

The Fed won't stop printing money, they see nothing wrong. This is temporary in their view.

Some 11 states now want to cut unemployment hoping people will take jobs at Mickey D's. This won't work. You'll see people walk away from mortgages/rent/car notes and we'll see a new banking crisis. Which was held off when Congress gave people unemployment supplements.

https://youtu.be/nWEoOwLNnlg

Nice vid but the dude sounds young. While I do know Smedley Butler, I'm sure Rick knows him better Very Happy

People comparing this hot mess to 2008 but it's more like 1978 under Jimmy Carter. The Fed raised interest rates so high to tighten the money supply, banks were paying 16% interest on a CD. Then came the savings & loan collapse.

We can't tighten the money supply. The wall street crowd is used to cheap $. They'll take their toys and go home and the market will go into a tailspin taking the Average Joe's 401k with it.

Blondie wrote:
Nice vid but the dude sounds young. While I do know Smedley Butler, I'm sure Rick knows him better

People comparing this hot mess to 2008 but it's more like 1978 under Jimmy Carter. The Fed raised interest rates so high to tighten the money supply, banks were paying 16% interest on a CD. Then came the savings & loan collapse.

We can't tighten the money supply. The wall street crowd is used to cheap $. They'll take their toys and go home and the market will go into a tailspin taking the Average Joe's 401k with it.

Yep, Camp Smedley D. Butler, Okinawa, Japan, Major General, born in Chester, PA. Most decorated Marine of his era. I still remember my Marine Corps history from over 50 years ago.

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:
https://youtu.be/nWEoOwLNnlg

I don't know Smedley Butler, but I know Sam Culper.
No one understands what he talks about, better than him.

If you go to a military school and take a course in Intel, he wrote the book.
Literally.

Blondie wrote:
Warren Buffet had a simple comment when asked about hyperinflation at the Berkshire-Hathaway shareholders meeting.

Buffet said as long as people are out there opening their wallets and willing to pay these prices, hyperinflation will continue.

The Fed won't stop printing money, they see nothing wrong. This is temporary in their view.

Some 11 states now want to cut unemployment hoping people will take jobs at Mickey D's. This won't work. You'll see people walk away from mortgages/rent/car notes and we'll see a new banking crisis. Which was held off when Congress gave people unemployment supplements.

Well, it is actually working in several states.

Seems like inflation is now at 5% over the last 12 months, looks like energy has risen 28%. Dig deeper into those wallets and purses boys and girls, I don't see it getting any better anytime soon:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

The U.S. dollar continues to fall, prices continue to raise:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427274-us-dollar-continues-to-fall-in-value

rick1 wrote:
The U.S. dollar continues to fall, prices continue to raise:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427274-us-dollar-continues-to-fall-in-value

That article isn't aging well. (But, then, neither am I ) It was written 5 weeks ago, when the Pound had just risen from $1.39 to $1.41 and today the Pound is worth $1.39 again. Somewhere in between it was $1.37.

Yes, the dollar is worth less. And so is almost every other currency in the world.

I am projecting 50% inflation, over the next 18 months, but right now, I am having self doubts.

Gasoline (retail) is 40 cents below where I thought it would be today. Wholesale is 20 cents below were I thought it would be. Someone once said: never bet against American Ingenuity.

I am still projecting 50% inflation in the next 18 months, but I am not sure of my projection.

(snip)

Yes, the dollar is worth less. And so is almost every other currency in the world.

I am projecting 50% inflation, over the next 18 months, but right now, I am having self doubts.

Gasoline (retail) is 40 cents below where I thought it would be today. Wholesale is 20 cents below were I thought it would be. Someone once said: never bet against American Ingenuity.

I am still projecting 50% inflation in the next 18 months, but I am not sure of my projection.

A good article on inflation concerns:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/markets-have-a-thing-or-two-to-tell-the-fed-about-inflation/articleshow/83769630.cms

Inflation concerns? I'm thinking this is more like a hair on fire financial crisis. We are fast outpacing Jimmy Carter's 16-18% inflation rate.

Time to begin a thread on all things inflation/hyperinflation ?

   Blondie wrote:
   Inflation concerns? I'm thinking this is more like a hair on fire financial crisis.  We are fast outpacing Jimmy Carter's 16-18% inflation rate.

   Time to begin a thread on all things inflation/hyperinflation ?

 Fine with me!

   rick1 wrote:
   A good article on inflation concerns:
   https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/markets-have-a-thing-or-two-to-tell-the-fed-about-inflation/articleshow/83769630.cms

This is pretty much two paragraphs of everything that is wrong:

   He added that the price data was confusing. “We have to be very humble about our ability to really try to draw a signal out of it,” he said. “It might take some patience to really see what’s happening.”

   The shift to a generally flattening yield curve and lower long-term inflation expectations may keep the Fed from actually carrying out the tapering its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases in the near term, let alone raising rates as soon as late next year or early 2023.

"The price data was confusing"
- Ummm, isn't it your job to understand it?

"We have to be very humble about our ability"
- when has the fed ever been humble?

"shift to a generally flattening yield curve"
-  this is always a sign that the economic engine is slowing down,

"its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases"
- this is literally money the fed is pumping int our government to keep it solvent

"lower long-term inflation expectations may keep the Fed from actually carrying out the tapering"
- translation, if we can't cause inflation, we will need to keep pumping money into the government to keep it solvent, because they are spending about $1.44 Trillion more than they can afford, and it looks like we either devalue the money dramatically or risk the government going into default.

Blondie wrote:
Inflation concerns? I'm thinking this is more like a hair on fire financial crisis. We are fast outpacing Jimmy Carter's 16-18% inflation rate.

Time to begin a thread on all things inflation/hyperinflation ?

While I am expecting to see inflation in the 30% range, I am not seeing it yet.
Shadow Stats is showing about 13%. Do you have any other source?

It's hard to tease out what's real price increases versus temporary jumps because of COVID constraints on the supply chain. Some of those constraints will last for years - like chips for cars and other tech items, but some will shake out in a few months (assuming no other shocks to the system.)

Basically I expect real inflation to continue to be high for the next 6 to 9 months, then expect it to settle down. Unless there are more disruptions than normal (from Covid-D or later, or multiple Cat 5 hurricanes at once, some black swan event, etc.)

Just my personal opinion, I think inflation is here to stay through next year and possibly into 2023.

Foods prices, energy prices, fuel prices and lets not forget the lazy people that don't want to go to work because of extended unemployment benefits.

Nope, inflation is here for awhile, just plant a bigger garden, raise some cattle and chickens, cut a bunch of wood for heat this winter, ride your bike when you can, and get some solar panels to help run your home.

Oh, forgot to add this, I have all the above, so let inflation roar.