Financial Crisis - 2024

Bidenomics at its best:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/layoffs-surged-january-second-highest-level-record

Dave58 wrote:

rick1 wrote:Bidenomics at its best:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/layoffs-surged-january-second-highest-level-record

Proof that we cannot trust on the news

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/us-economy-added-353000-jobs-in-january-much-better-than-expected.html

I saw that when I posted mine. Seems every month corn pops people come out later with an adjusted jobs report number. Curious to see how many they take off the 353000 number.

Reality takes a hard bite out of the Leftist Fantasy.

As always, my "go to" guy for financial analysis (but not political or military analysis) is Mish Shedlock.

Manufacturing is still in a funk. And Manufacturing is a big deal, if you look at what creates wealth, rather than political talking points in an economy.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/ism-manufacturing-still-contracting-but-new-orders-turn-positive/
The bottom line number here is that the index has been below 50 for 15 straight months. That means five quarters, in recession.

Headline numbers never tell the whole story, so Mish does a deep dive, every month:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/ignore-the-amazing-headline-job-numbers-note-the-revisions/

The massive discrepancy between jobs and employment continues. Revisions make it worse but due to reporting practices we cannot see actual month-by-month totals.

However, data continues to suggest the discrepancy is very suggestive of people working extra part time jobs to make ends meet or to fill spots by boomer retirements.

Then, at the end, he says this:

I will cover the as reported data in my next post. Here’s a teaser. Full time employment is below the level in February of 2023!

Bidenomics at its best, oh, they don't use that saying anymore 'cause most people aren't as stupid as joe crow 2.0:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/ppi-wholesale-inflation-january-2024

rick1 wrote:Bidenomics at its best, oh, they don't use that saying anymore 'cause most people aren't as stupid as joe crow 2.0:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/ppi-wholesale-inflation-january-2024

From your link:

The Labor Department said Friday that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, jumped 0.3% in January from the previous month. On an annual basis, prices remain up 0.9%.

Those figures are both higher than the 0.1% monthly gain and the 0.6% annual figure predicted by Refinitiv economists.

Those figures are both lower than reality, too.

Department of Labor has been cheating on inflation numbers for decades.
(Especially when Obama and Biden are in office.)

Heading towards a 1970's style stagflation:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jpmorgan-warns-investors-should-brace-1970s-style-stagflation

I was at the store yesterday and was talking to the butcher (same guy cuts my beef), he said that beef will be going up anywhere from 1.50 to 2.00 a pound, starting around summer time.

Good for me but not too good for the consumer. If the prices raise that much, I'll butcher as many as I can, money in the bank.


https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4465781-beef-prices-could-hit-record-highs-in-2024-experts-warn-heres-why/

rick1 wrote:I was at the store yesterday and was talking to the butcher (same guy cuts my beef), he said that beef will be going up anywhere from 1.50 to 2.00 a pound, starting around summer time.
Good for me but not too good for the consumer. If the prices raise that much, I'll butcher as many as I can, money in the bank.
https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4465781-beef-prices-could-hit-record-highs-in-2024-experts-warn-heres-why/

My understanding is that there will be a mild, but protracted beef shortage. Just enough to keep prices up. Maybe for as long as thee years. Hope you can realize some gains, from it.

Joe crow 2.0 and his bidenomics are at it again, hang on to your hat, or wallet:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/former-white-house-economist-warns-bidens-budget-catalyzes-economic-

What's this, oh, inflation up again, thanks cornpop:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-february-2024

Here's the energy and food inflation the demonrats don't talk about:

https://datavisualizations.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/the-biden-inflation-tracker/

This was updated February, bidenomices at its best:

https://datavisualizations.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/the-biden-inflation-tracker/

Credit card debt is now over $1.13 trillion dollars, another demonrat record:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/02/07/us-credit-card-debt-hits-trillion/72505645007/

OH, see if you can afford to buy a home right now or send your kid to college, most can't.

joe crow 2.0 economics at work in Pennsylvania.

My electric bill, since corn pop has taken office has gone up 23.8%. Got a notice in the mail today with my electric bill that first energy (penelec) is requesting from the PUC to raise the rates again. This time a 9.8% increase.

https://www.yourerie.com/news/pennsylvania-news/penelec-looking-to-raise-prices-for-pa-customers/

This is just one rate increase from last year, 2023

https://www.altoonamirror.com/news/local-news/2023/11/penelec-announces-9-3-rate-increase/

This rate increase is from the year before, 2022

https://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/penelec-increasing-prices-15-starting-june-1-erie-residents-react/

But the babbling idiot from DC says the economy is doing great, what a  

Get prepared to pay more, for EVERYTHING:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/04/12/oil-drilling-federal-lands-biden/

Capital gains tax of 44.6%, "How to ruin an economy, by Joe Biden:"

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-capital-gains-tax-proposal-could-have-major-economic-impact-experts-say

rick1 wrote:joe crow 2.0 economics at work in Pennsylvania.

My electric bill, since corn pop has taken office has gone up 23.8%. Got a notice in the mail today with my electric bill that first energy (penelec) is requesting from the PUC to raise the rates again. This time a 9.8% increase.

https://www.yourerie.com/news/pennsylvania-news/penelec-looking-to-raise-prices-for-pa-customers/

This is just one rate increase from last year, 2023

https://www.altoonamirror.com/news/local-news/2023/11/penelec-announces-9-3-rate-increase/

This rate increase is from the year before, 2022

https://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/penelec-increasing-prices-15-starting-june-1-erie-residents-react/

But the babbling idiot from DC says the economy is doing great, what a  

PUC puts First Energy's proposed electric increase on  hold until they investigate the half trillion dollar increase.

It's about time the PUC looks out for the little guy:

https://www.puc.pa.gov/press-release/2024/puc-to-investigate-firstenergy-s-503-million-rate-increase-requests-for-electric-distribution-services-04252024

On a side note:
I would update this item, from Mar 2023, except that the site has not published new numbers, this year.

TRex2 wrote:Just a quick round up, of the number of bills (greenbacks) in circulation.
(As of, about two years ago.)
One's - - 14 Billion
Two's - - 1.4 Billion
Five's - - 3.4 Billion
Ten's - - - 2.3 Billion
Twenty's - 11.9 Billion
Fifties's - 2.46 Billion
Hundred's - 177 Billion

Notes of interest:
No one knows how many $3 bills there are.  

Almost as soon as Trump got out of office, the number of $50's in circulation exceeded the number of $10's.

There are about 10 times the number of C-Notes in circulation as 10's 20's and 50's combined, largely thanks to unlawful enterprises.

Total cash (face value) in circulation has been increasing by about 6% each year.

https://www.uscurrency.gov/life-cycle/data/circulation

EDIT TO ADD: just to be clear, the numbers above are the actual number of bills, not the value.
There are 3.4 billion $5 bills, for a value of $17 billion.

Bidenomics is at it again, sure don't look good for 63 banks that may fall.

Way to go corn pop:

https://loudobbs.com/news/bidenomics-517-billion-in-unrealized-losses-cripple-us-banking-system-63-lenders-teeter-on-the-brink-of-insolvency-fdic-reports/

rick1 wrote:Bidenomics is at it again, sure don't look good for 63 banks that may fall.

Way to go corn pop:

https://loudobbs.com/news/bidenomics-517-billion-in-unrealized-losses-cripple-us-banking-system-63-lenders-teeter-on-the-brink-of-insolvency-fdic-reports/

Despite my desire to blame Biden for all of the mess, the banks, themselves, are somewhat to blame. Some of those "unrealized losses were from buying long term treasury bonds at lower interest rates, at a time when everyone should have known that the interest rate would rise (due to inflation), which causes the value of bonds that were purchased with lower interest rates to be worth less.

That is exactly what caused Silicon Valley Bank to fold. They bought a boatload of 10 yr treasury bonds, at about 1% interest, and when the interest rate went to 4+ % those bonds were worth about 75% of the face value. Seeing the obvious problem, most of their investors bailed, leaving them insolvent.

Of course, if inflation hadn't skyrocketed, none of this would have happened, but we knew it would, from the day Biden got elected.

Scary prediction, but the stock market is overpriced by a lot of fake money:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/economist-harry-dent-predicts-stock-market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles

rick1 wrote:Scary prediction, but the stock market is overpriced by a lot of fake money:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/economist-harry-dent-predicts-stock-market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles

Harry Dent is a pretty good economist, but he isn't perfect.

Old joke: what are the two professions where you can be wrong and keep your job?

Answer: Weather forecaster and economist.

I was going to post an article on all of Harry Dent's missed predictions, but realized, as I reviewed it, that they cherry picked number to make him look worse than he really is. Hard to know the truth when everyone has an agenda, and truth is not part of their agenda.

Personally I think we are already in a mild, unofficial, and unannounced recession. It doesn't show up at the stock market, or even in GDP, except that our population seems to be growing (through illegal immigration) faster than the GDP growth.

The numbers that show we are in a recession are GDI.

That is gross domestic income.

And that isn't growing: per person income (except for billionaires and near billionaires) is falling.

.

On our way to being a bankrupt, socialist/communists country, will know come November 5th.

Our economy and prices are bad because of energy costs are sky high and government spending is out of control, not because of price gouging:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cracks-wall-media-praise-harris-multiple-outlets-eviscerate-vp-over-price-control-plan

TRex2 wrote:...

Old joke: what are the two professions where you can be wrong and keep your job?

Answer: Weather forecaster and economist.

...

Personally I think we are already in a mild, unofficial, and unannounced recession. It doesn't show up at the stock market, or even in GDP, except that our population seems to be growing (through illegal immigration) faster than the GDP growth.

The numbers that show we are in a recession are GDI.  

That is gross domestic income.  

And that isn't growing: per person income (except for billionaires and near billionaires) is falling.

.

OK, now we have another indicator, that we are in a recession.

They told us that the economy grew by 1%. But that is in dollars, and inflation ate 2% of it, so the economy actually shrank by 1%.

TRex2 wrote:On a side note:
I would update this item, from Mar 2023, except that the site has not published new numbers, this year.

TRex2 wrote:Just a quick round up, of the number of bills (greenbacks) in circulation.
(As of, about two years ago.)
One's - - 14 Billion
Two's - - 1.4 Billion
Five's - - 3.4 Billion
Ten's - - - 2.3 Billion
Twenty's - 11.9 Billion
Fifties's - 2.46 Billion
Hundred's - 177 Billion

Notes of interest:
No one knows how many $3 bills there are.  

Almost as soon as Trump got out of office, the number of $50's in circulation exceeded the number of $10's.

There are about 10 times the number of C-Notes in circulation as 10's 20's and 50's combined, largely thanks to unlawful enterprises.

Total cash (face value) in circulation has been increasing by about 6% each year.

https://www.uscurrency.gov/life-cycle/data/circulation

EDIT TO ADD: just to be clear, the numbers above are the actual number of bills, not the value.
There are 3.4 billion $5 bills, for a value of $17 billion.

Looks like they got the new (for 2022, because they run about 18 months behind) numbers published. I will put up a table with some analysis, later.

TRex2 wrote:

TRex2 wrote:...

Old joke: what are the two professions where you can be wrong and keep your job?

Answer: Weather forecaster and economist.

...

Personally I think we are already in a mild, unofficial, and unannounced recession. It doesn't show up at the stock market, or even in GDP, except that our population seems to be growing (through illegal immigration) faster than the GDP growth.

The numbers that show we are in a recession are GDI.  

That is gross domestic income.  

And that isn't growing: per person income (except for billionaires and near billionaires) is falling.

.

OK, now we have another indicator, that we are in a recession.

They told us that the economy grew by 1%. But that is in dollars, and inflation ate 2% of it, so the economy actually shrank by 1%.

On Varney (Fox Business), this morning "TheCowGuy" agreed with me, saying that most people would say that the past 18 months have been a recession.

Did not get this posted, when I should have, but here are some sobering thoughts for September.

There are a few things that create wealth in a society: agriculture, mining and drilling, construction, manufacturing ...

A few things destroy wealth in a society: crime, inflation, government spending and disasters.

Manufacturing is the primary thing I watch, since it doesn't have much of a seasonal aspect, like construction and agriculture.

Institute for Supply Management has an index that measures growth and contraction in manufacturing.  They call 50 neutral (I say 52, because of interest on loans and growth in population), and anything less means our economy is contracting.

On the 4th, they said:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/ism-index-little-slightly-better-but-new-orders-and-production-contracting-faster/

“After breaking a 16-month streak of contraction by expanding in March, the manufacturing sector has contracted the last five months, but at a slower rate in August.

If you think that means we have been in an (unofficial) recession for the past two years, you are right.

On the sixth, the Federal Government, Bureau of Labor Statistics put out its monthly report. Ignore the headlines, they are pablum for the masses. Look here, instead:  

https://mishtalk.com/economics/payroll-report-manufacturing-sheds-24000-jobs-government-adds-24000-big-negative-revisions/

His first graph shows that the number of jobs has been almost constant for the past year. Nothing gained. But wait, there's more: his second graph shows manufacturing (that creates wealth) declining and government growing. This means we are creating less wealth, and destroying more wealth, at an ever faster rate.

[removed last two paragraphs, because they are irrelevant in our environment.]

TRex2 wrote:
...

Institute for Supply Management has an index that measures growth and contraction in manufacturing.  They call 50 neutral (I say 52, because of interest on loans and growth in population), and anything less means our economy is contracting.

On the 4th, they said:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/ism-index-little-slightly-better-but-new-orders-and-production-contracting-faster/

“After breaking a 16-month streak of contraction by expanding in March, the manufacturing sector has contracted the last five months, but at a slower rate in August.

If you think that means we have been in an (unofficial) recession for the past two years, you are right.
...

Continuing with more of the same contraction we saw, last month:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/ism-manufacturing-contracts-6th-month-22nd-time-in-23-months/
Oct 1st, 2024

Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) continued in contraction with mixed results: Employment shrunk at a faster rate while production approached expansion, with levels on par compared to August. Panelists cited continuing efforts by their companies to right-size workforces to levels consistent with projected demand. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — generally continued to accommodate future demand growth, with inventories returning to low levels and suppliers showing some difficulty in meeting customer needs.

Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy — which the U.S. Federal Reserve addressed by the time of this report — and election uncertainty. Production execution stabilized in September. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and shortages reappearing. Seventy-seven percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in September, up from 65 percent in August.

In layman's terms: we are still producing, but laying off people at the plants. This means our manufacturing is becoming more automated, thus more efficient, but an unwillingness to invest is bringing that trend to a halt.