Discussion & News: China----(JANUARY 2019)

Chinese authorities have launched an investigation into a mysterious viral pneumonia which has infected dozens of people in the central city of Wuhan.
A total of 44 cases have been confirmed so far, 11 of which are considered "severe", officials said on Friday.
The outbreak has prompted Singapore and Hong Kong to bring in screening processes for travellers from the city.
It comes amid online fears the virus could be linked to Sars, or severe acute respiratory syndrome.

There has also been no human-to-human transmission, the statement added. However, a number of those infected worked at a seafood market in the city, leading authorities to clean the area.
A spokesman for the World Health Organization (WHO) said it was aware of the outbreak and was in contact with the Chinese government.
"There are many potential causes of viral pneumonia, many of which are more common than severe acute respiratory syndrome coronovirus," the spokesman added. "WHO is closely monitoring this event and will share more details as we have them. "

Scientists believe they may have found the cause of the mystery pneumonia that has infected almost 60 people in the Chinese city of Wuhan since December.
Preliminary tests indicated the illness may be caused by a new coronavirus, lead scientist Xu Jianguo told the official Xinhua news agency.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) had also said a coronavirus could be to blame for the outbreak.

Singapore's airport says it will begin temperature screening travellers from Wuhan and Hong Kong health officials say they are also implementing checks on passengers.
Authorities in Hong Kong have also stepped up the disinfection of trains and aeroplanes, AFP news agency reports.
Fears the virus could be spread were further stoked by the fact it struck just before China's peak travel season, when hundreds of millions of people are set to travel for Chinese New Year later this month.
But it is still unclear how the illness is transmitted, with health officials saying no cases of human-to-human transmission had been confirmed as yet.

Beijing — The possibility that a new virus in central China could spread between humans cannot be ruled out, though the risk of transmission at the moment appears to be low, Chinese officials said Wednesday. Forty-one people in the city of Wuhan have received a preliminary diagnosis of a novel coronavirus, a family of viruses that can cause both the common cold and more serious diseases.

While preliminary investigations indicate that most of the patients had worked at or visited a particular seafood wholesale market, one woman may have contracted the virus from her husband, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said in a public notice.

The commission said the husband, who fell ill first, worked at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. Meanwhile, the wife said she hasn't had any exposure to the market.

It's possible that the husband brought home food from the market that then infected his wife, Hong Kong health official Chuang Shuk-kwan said at a news briefing. But because the wife did not exhibit symptoms until days after her husband, it's also possible that he infected her.

Chinese officials say there have been no cases of the virus spreading from one person to another.

Instead, they say, the virus has crossed the species barrier and come from infected animals at a seafood and wildlife market in Wuhan.

The South Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) reported today on the first confirmed, imported case of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.

Officials say the case is a Chinese woman in her 30s who suffered from fever, headache and other symptoms after arriving at Incheon International Airport and tested positive for the virus.

The initial investigation shows she traveled to the Chinese city of Wuhan in Hubei Province last week. She denied visiting the traditional markets including Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, nor contacting 2019-nCoV confirmed cases or any live animals in Wuhan.

The number of people infected with a new virus in China tripled over the weekend, with the outbreak spreading from Wuhan to other major cities.

Beijing Time: 2020-01-16 09:55
...
On Wednesday (January 15), "Voice of Germany" quoted Berlin virus research expert Christian Drosten, saying that the new virus that recently caused "unknown pneumonia" in China is a SARS virus , similar to 2002/03 the virus when SARS broke out. Drosten is the director of the Institute of Virology at Charité Berlin, the largest university-affiliated teaching hospital in Europe.

Drosten pointed out that the new virus and SARS virus are "the same virus, but the morphology is different." The main difference is that the virus has different proteins attached to human cells.
...
The SARS virus is susceptible to mutation during transmission, and the mutation speed is very fast. When the SARS outbreak occurred in 2003, it was difficult for the medical profession to prevent and control the virus because of the constantly changing form of the virus, and it was also very difficult to develop a corresponding vaccine.

Professor Yuan Guoyong, Chair Professor of Infectious Diseases of the University of Hong Kong, pointed out that the illness, severity, and mortality of the new virus in Wuhan can be used as a reference for SARS in 2003. He said that SARS also experienced a rapid mutation of the virus that year, followed by a large-scale "super spread" process.

2020-01-20
https://youtu.be/D8sfxYF-1mE The Wuhan virus is spreading not unlike early stage of SARS. Beijing has ordered all doctors and nurses to cancel their CNY holidays!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8sfxYF-1mE&feature=youtu.be]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8sfxYF-1mE&feature=youtu.be

Jan 20, 2020 17:15
A sixth clinic attached to Zhongshan University in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, posted on Weibo yesterday to deny that medical personnel at the hospital had been infected with the new coronavirus, but later deleted the post ( Screenshot from Weibo)It has been reported that pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China has spread to Beijing and Shenzhen, Guangdong, as well as cases of infection at hospitals in Guangzhou.

On the Internet, a medical professional at Zhongshan University's sixth clinic in Guangzhou and the Army General Clinic recently reported that some people were infected with the new coronavirus pneumonia. In response, on January 18, the sixth clinic attached to Nakayama University issued a statement on SNS's "Micro Expo", claiming that "it was not the case." However, the statement was later deleted, causing external speculation...

Gao Fu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and director of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, pointed out that the new coronavirus is also changing, adapting to the environment and human beings, so this "war" is a "war" of prevention and control and virus mutation.....

China's top leaders have warned lower-level officials not to cover up the spread of a new coronavirus that has now infected nearly 300 people.
Anyone who concealed new cases would "be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity", the political body responsible for law and order said.
The warning came as state media said six people had now died from the virus, which causes a type of pneumonia.
It's been confirmed the virus can pass from person to person.
The World Health Organization (WHO) will on Wednesday consider declaring an international public health emergency over the virus - as it did with swine flu and Ebola. Such a declaration, if made, will be seen as an urgent call for a co-ordinated international response.
China's National Health Commission on Monday confirmed for the first time that the infection could be transmitted from human-to-human. It said two people in Guangdong province had been infected in this way.

Dave58 wrote:Stocking up on Elderberry and vitamins today..

Just when i thought I could slow down and breathe a little bit

rick1 wrote:

Dave58 wrote:Stocking up on Elderberry and vitamins today..

Just when i thought I could slow down and breathe a little bit

Here's what you do Dave, sit down, take two deep breaths, drink one beer slowly, after that one is down, chug a beer as fast as you can, you'll feel better.

Originally posted by alert
[snip] I can't even begin to imagine what the effect of such a virus on flu season would be if this is not contained. I doubt this virus would drive out any existing flu strains because it's not flu, so the burden of this would be added to whatever influenza circulates. There's not going to be a vaccine or any antivirals for this.

I can't think of a single historical example of an acute, non-flu, pandemic. If this virus is not contained, that's what we're facing.

Being vaccinated for flu could make infection with corona or other viruses worse:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X19313647
"Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus and human metapneumovirus"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X18303153?via%3Dihub
"Among children there was an increase in the hazard of ARI caused by non-influenza respiratory pathogens post-influenza vaccination compared to unvaccinated children during the same period."

Situation in Shanghai. Confirmed case escaped from hospital and visited multiple sites before being caught:

https://twitter.com/tingguowrites/status/1219553895686344704

  Specialist in Shanghai says 2019-nCoV could be the most contagious disease she has ever faced But doctor in Guangzhou says ‘it’s not as bad as Sars’

A doctor in Shanghai who specialises in infectious diseases says the new coronavirus [1]
could be the most contagious disease she has ever faced in her 10 years working at a major hospital.

“In the past decade, there have been epidemics of bird flu H7N9, Mers [2]
(Middle East respiratory syndrome), dengue and H1N1 flu in or outside Shanghai,” said the woman, who asked to be identified only as Helen as she is not authorised to talk to the media.

“We were prepared to deal with them, but this time the Wuhan virus is more serious than any of them. It’s more infectious and more deadly than I thought just last week.”

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:Is anyone else getting more concerned about this?

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:Is anyone else getting more concerned about this?

Dave58 wrote:Thanks for everything that you do RM.... For those of us that don't have a lot of time to research this you have been a great help  

THE killer coronavirus that's sweeping through China is "as deadly as Spanish flu, which killed 50 million people", experts today warned.

Nine people have died and cases have soared by more than 100 in the last 24 hours, reaching 440, Chinese authorities confirmed.

British experts have today warned the true number of cases is more likely to range from 1,000 to 10,000.

Professor Neil Ferguson, an expert in mathematical biology at Imperial College London told reporters in London the death rate for the new strain of coronavirus is "roughly the same as for The Spanish flu epidemic, at around one in 50".

(SNIP) ... Prof Ferguson warned of "more deaths to come" as fellow experts said the outbreak has reached the threshold for an international public health emergency - ahead of today's World Health Organization meeting on the issue.

Deputy Director of the National Health Commission Li Bin said that all deaths had been in the Hubei province, home to Wuhan city where the first illnesses from coronavirus were reported in late December.

The 440 cases were confirmed as of midnight and have been reported across 13 areas of China.

Officials are considering putting Wuhan - a city of 11 million, a larger population than London - on lockdown, with people being told to stop travelling and to avoid crowds.

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:Is anyone else getting more concerned about this?

Wuhan, a Chinese city of nearly nine million people, is to temporarily shut public transport amid a virus outbreak.
Those living in the city have been told not to leave, and the airport and train stations will be closed to outgoing passengers.
Bus, subway, ferry, and long-distance transport networks will be suspended from 1000 local time on 23 January.

dmwalsh568 wrote:...
Has anyone told China about closing the barn door after the horses have fled?

TRex2 wrote:
No.

I have to revise my previous estimates. This is still much much less transmittable than the flu, but death rate from most flu bugs is about 30 per 10,000 cases, and this one looks like it will be more than 100 per 10,000 cases (or about 1% fatality rate), with a lot of hospitalizations.

This is truly unprecedented. Beijing might have quarantined approximately one million people at the peak of the 2003 SARS outbreak, but this would be an order of magnitude higher.

I'm assuming that most businesses will be shut down so that people don't have to work. I'm hoping the government has planned out logistics for how food and other supplies will get into the city; perhaps the military will be deployed to assist. Without sufficient supplies, quarantine won't work because the quarantined area will become viewed as a death trap that everyone wants to flee.

There really is no alternative. If this is not contained, we're going to have a pandemic with the transmissibility of flu and the CFR and treatment options of SARS. That's probably worse than even an H5N1 pandemic, as H5N1 has antivirals and perhaps eventually a vaccine.

I no longer think this virus is as mild as some of the reports portray it. The apparent CFR just seems low because most patients are still ill. Remember that although our estimate of the CFR of H1N1 dropped as the virus spread, the estimated CFR of SARS actually went up as the outbreak went on, the result of already ill patients dying.

Scientists now believe that the deadly virus spreading around the globe from China was passed to humans from snakes sold at the open-air market in Wuhan.

(SNIP) ... They think genetic material from the two recombined, picked up a protein that lets viruses bind to certain host cells - including those of humans.

When they analyzed the genes of strains affecting various host animals, the team found that snakes were susceptible to the most similar version of the coronavirus, and likely provided a 'reservoir' for the viral strain to grow stronger and replicate.

#1 https://twitter.com/ASBreakingNews/status/1220270631708712960

BREAKING URGENT:#CoronaVirus We have obtained An internal government transcript from #China that shows that 109 cases of #CoronaVirus were found in #Huanggang City,(which has just now been put on lockdown) and 12 cases were announced to the public.

RT to spread message. #wuhan

A second source, confirming the lockdown but not the case counts:
#2 https://twitter.com/worldnewsinwor/status/1220271096605356032

Officials say Huanggang, which is next to Wuhan and has a population of 7 million, will shut down its transportation system at midnight and citizens should not leave the city. All public venues are closed.

The railway station in a third nearby city, Ezhou, which has a population of over one million, will also close from tonight, though no other measures were announced.

we're going to have a pandemic with the transmissibility of flu and the CFR and treatment options of SARS.

Scientists now believe that the deadly virus spreading around the globe from China was passed to humans from snakes sold at the open-air market in Wuhan.

1- it's worse than the Chinese are saying and they are desperately trying to control it now. It already spreading to other regions so I'm not sure how helpful the quarantine will be.

quarantine will last 2 incubation periods and then will be reexamined. Use this real life test to imagine what would happen here if your area was suddenly quarantined.

1- Why would they quarantine a city of 11 million just because a handful of people died ??? (Reminds me of Captain Trips in The Stand)..
2- Is this a man made virus and it has got away from them and they can't seem to get ahead of it ???

Captain Trips is a nickname for the constantly-shifting antigen virus that exterminates 99.4% of the human population in The Stand.

Wuhan virus: China locks down Huanggang, imposes tough travel restrictions in 3 other cities, after Wuhan lockdown

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:This guy who helped contain SARS is predicting this will be worse.  

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7920373/Expert-warns-Chinese-coronavirus-outbreak-10-TIMES-worse-SARS.html

A leading Chinese virology expert has warned that the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic
could be 10 times as bad as the Sars outbreak that killed almost 800 people around the world in 2002-03.

Guan Yi, director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at Hong Kong University, said in an interview with Caixin magazine on Thursday that after a brief visit to the central China city on Tuesday and Wednesday, he “chose to become a deserter” and left.

“My conservative estimate is that this epidemic could end up at least 10 times the scale of Sars [severe acute respiratory disease],” he said.

TRex2 wrote:

dmwalsh568 wrote:...
Has anyone told China about closing the barn door after the horses have fled?

The horse didn't flee. The Chinese ate him.
Things have been rough over there.

Chairman Mao was the rider on their White Horse.
The cultural revolution was their rider on the Red Horse.
The rider on the Black Horse is riding through their country.
The rider on the Pale Horse is knocking at their door.
(Explanation of the four horsemen)
https://www.gotquestions.org/four-horsemen-apocalypse.html

Wuhan is a huge place - the 42nd biggest city in the world, according to UN data - and cannot easily be turned into an isolation ward.

More than 20 major roads come into Wuhan, plus dozens of smaller ones. Even with public transport closed, sealing the city would require a massive military effort.

"The only way you could do it, realistically, would be to ring-fence the city with the PLA [Chinese military]," says Professor Adam Kamradt-Scott, a health security expert from the University of Sydney.

But even if they do it, where - literally - would they draw the line? Like most modern cities, Wuhan sprawls into smaller towns and villages.

"Cities are shaped in unorthodox ways," says Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, a pandemics expert also from the University of Sydney,

"You can't really block every road and every connection. It may be possible to an extent... but it's not a foolproof measure."

Gauden Galea, the World Health Organization's representative in China, puts it more bluntly.

"To my knowledge, trying to contain a city of 11 million people is new to science," he told the Associated Press. "We cannot at this stage say it will or it will not work."

And - even if it proves possible to shut the stable door on Wuhan - the horse may already have bolted.