Re: Russian Concerns

by TRex2 Wed May 17, 2023 5:00 am

Drinkthekoolaid wrote:[snipped quoted stuff]
I don't pay any attention to that. The .mil doesn't publish or release their force posture.

That is just pure speculation. And I highly doubt we've been coasting along at 5 all this time defcon 4 is much more likely. I doubt we are at 3 but I wouldn't rule it out but IMO 4 is probably a fair guess.

I have mentioned this, before, but you may have missed that.

There is nothing in my posts from any .mil agency. the "DEFCON" site is civilian. They are professional "watchers" of the nuclear arms race and things related to that. They watch Russia and China (and a few others), and I watch them. I watch them, because they have always provided reliable information. Their DEFCON level doesn't specifically reflect the US government's DEFCON level, although from time to time, they may be the same.

I concur that the government, over the past few years, has held DEFCON 4, probably more than we would like to know. I know we have been to 3 several times in history, and at least once (possibly twice) we made it to DEFCON 2, but only for a few minutes.

by rick1 Wed May 17, 2023 12:42 pm

We've only been in DEFCON level 2, 2 times, once during the Cuban missile crisis and once during the Persian Gulf war.

I can't believe that we weren't at a higher level during the 9-11 attacks, we were raised to a level 3.

Here's a good article on the levels that we have reached:

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/the-defcon-system-and-which-levels-us-forces-have-been-in-the-past/

And here's a good article on who sets the DEFCON levels, the military does not publicly distribute the active DEFCON level so people don't panic:

https://veteran.com/defcon-levels/

by Dave58 Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:28 am

This could change everything
https://t.co/X3flQUBL0r

by Dave58 Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:06 am

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12229575/Wagner-forces-head-Moscow-Prigozhin-mocks-Putin-call-traitors-up.html

by TRex2 Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:09 am

Dave58 wrote:This could change everything
https://t.co/X3flQUBL0r

They can do a lot of damage and create a lot of chaos. Ultimately, they may take 30% of the Russian military out of the fight, for a while.

But I don't think they will make it to Moscow. I think the regular Russian army will cut them to pieces, along the way. A (more than ) 200 mile plunge into hostile territory is difficult if everything is on your side, and in this conflict, it is most certainly not going to go smoothly.

by **ReadyMom** Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:38 am

Dave58 wrote:This could change everything
https://t.co/X3flQUBL0r

Are they good guys or bad guys? They are against what Putin is doing, right? Staging a coup? I read they are neo-natzi, so to me that says 'bad guys' even though they are against Putin. I'm SO confused! seeing stars

by TRex2 Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:31 pm

Dave58 wrote:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12229575/Wagner-forces-head-Moscow-Prigozhin-mocks-Putin-call-traitors-up.html

One thing I missed, is that other units are joining up with Wagner Group.

I still think they will lose, but it will get more "interesting."

(My wife said: "maybe they have realized: better dead than red.")

by TRex2 Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:42 pm

TRex2 wrote:
Dave58 wrote:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12229575/Wagner-forces-head-Moscow-Prigozhin-mocks-Putin-call-traitors-up.html
One thing I missed, is that other units are joining up with Wagner Group.

I still think they will lose, but it will get more "interesting."

(My wife said: "maybe they have realized: better dead than red.")

Looks like they have turned back.

But this will still not end well, for them: they have embarrassed the Kremlin.

by TRex2 Mon Jun 26, 2023 1:35 pm

ReadyMom wrote:...
Are they good guys or bad guys? They are against what Putin is doing, right? Staging a coup? I read they are neo-natzi, so to me that says 'bad guys' even though they are against Putin. I'm SO confused!

Wagner Group (pronounced "vog-ner," BTW) is a "mercenary" outfit that allows Putin to carry out unlawful warfare and claim "plausible deniability" in spite of all of us knowing they answer to him. Many of them are criminals or foreign fighters who do this for a living, since that beats living in a Russian prison.

I would ignore any and all propaganda about one side or the other being Nazi or neo-nazi. That is just propaganda to try to push hatred towards some group or other. Nazi has nothing to do with this.

Putin invaded Ukraine to try to reclaim territory that was taken at the end of WW1 (the taking of Russian territory was pretty sketchy).

Ukraine, under President Z (who was lawfully elected, in spite of Russian interference to try to keep him out) is waging a war to defend Ukraine, since more than 80% of the country does not want to live under Russian rule (again).

by **ReadyMom** Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:45 pm

TRex2 wrote:
Wagner Group (pronounced "vog-ner," BTW) is a "mercenary" outfit that allows Putin to ...

Thanks so much, TR! I did recently get a decent handle on most of the history but this Wagner part has been confusing to me. So it's a mixed bag of militia. It just feels like there's more to all this. But that shouldn't surprise me since it's involving Russia.

by TRex2 Tue Jun 27, 2023 8:49 am

ReadyMom wrote:
TRex2 wrote:
Wagner Group (pronounced "vog-ner," BTW) is a "mercenary" outfit that allows Putin to ...

Thanks so much, TR! I did recently get a decent handle on most of the history but this Wagner part has been confusing to me. So it's a mixed bag of militia. It just feels like there's more to all this. But that shouldn't surprise me since it's involving Russia.

Political morals, among the Slavic countries, since the fall of Alexander II, have been abysmal, even though their social morals were similar to ours until the fall of the Berlin wall.

Putin and his "friend," Prigozhin, are the worst of the worst.
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2023/0516/Russia-s-top-mercenary-leader-turns-on-Kremlin.-What-s-behind-rift

Yevgeny Prigozhin is a former convict and Kremlin-connected entrepreneur whose private army, the Wagner Group, has borne the brunt of the long, grinding, and incredibly costly battle that has raged since last summer amid the ruins of Bakhmut, once a quiet Donbas mining town.

And over the past 10 days, he has publicly threatened to pull his forces out of Bakhmut, appearing in a video with a field of dead Wagner troops he claimed were victims of Defense Ministry negligence.

I have heard that the rift goes back several weeks (possibly months), prior to this "last straw" disaster in the Donbas.

by Dave58 Tue Jul 04, 2023 12:24 pm

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-on-high-alert-as-reports-indicate-preparations-for-nuclear-explosion-at-zaporizhzhia-plant/ar-AA1dpJk5?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6c6375151d2642dc88374f60217782e3&ei=21

by Dave58 Tue Jul 04, 2023 9:12 pm

https://www.barrons.com/news/kyiv-moscow-trade-claims-of-imminent-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-attack-cb5878b0

by TRex2 Thu Jul 06, 2023 10:41 am

Dave58 wrote:https://www.barrons.com/news/kyiv-moscow-trade-claims-of-imminent-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-attack-cb5878b0

Whoever wrote the msn article, above, doesn't understand what he is writing about. President Z does. While this article is difficult to read, due to the broken english being used, it is the better of the two.

If one of the reactors, or the cooling pool used for spent rods, is breached, it will not create a nuclear detonation, although, in some ways it might be considered worse.

A reactor breach could rain radioactive debris or dust down across thousands of miles. I won't imperil the whole world (as a reminder, there was a low grade panic, for a year, over the Fukushima reactor meltdown and subsequent radiation "pool" making its way across the Pacific, but that didn't kill everyone in California), but it will poison an area the size of Oklahoma.

I find it interesting that they don't mention the lake level, as imperiling the reactors.

by TRex2 Thu Jul 06, 2023 10:44 am

ReadyMom wrote:
TRex2 wrote:
Wagner Group (pronounced "vog-ner," BTW) is a "mercenary" outfit that allows Putin to ...

Thanks so much, TR! I did recently get a decent handle on most of the history but this Wagner part has been confusing to me. So it's a mixed bag of militia. It just feels like there's more to all this. But that shouldn't surprise me since it's involving Russia.

A little more on the Wagner Group.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19765/very-russian-affair

Wagner is a monster that Putin created and, for almost a decade, denied that it even existed. Now, however, he has assumed ownership of the creature and is trying to integrate part of it into the Russian regular army while keeping another part for profitable adventures abroad.

Without Wagner, Putin would not have been able to emerge as a big player in such places as Libya, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Mali and, more recently, Burkina Faso with the possibility of expanding further in west and east Africa. Even in Syria, where Putin used Iranian troops and their Afghan, Pakistani and Lebanese mercenaries as his boots on the ground, Wagner was actively present as President Bashar al-Assad's praetorian protector and prison warden. More recently, Wagner also established a presence in Venezuela and Nicaragua, reviving memories of a time when Russia, as the USSR, was able to do mischief in United States' backyard.

Putin's choice of one of his closest allies, Prigozhin, as Wagner's leader was no surprise. The oligarch had known Putin since their Saint Petersburg days and is said to be one of the few intimates to know the location of at least part of his boss's fortune.

All this might explain why Putin, badly shaken by the "incident" has been unwilling to unleash his thunder bolt against Prigozhin and Wagner.

The alternative to Putin isn't necessarily going to be a pro-West bleeding-heart liberal. Putin may be bad, but his successor could be worse. At the same time, no one would benefit from chaos in Russia, an event that could affect the whole of Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East and beyond.

by Dave58 Fri Sep 15, 2023 6:36 am

https://metro.co.uk/2023/09/14/people-on-nato-border-warned-to-take-shelter-from-russia-drone-attacks-19497084/

by Dave58 Fri Sep 15, 2023 6:39 am

We are just an oops from being in a huge mess.. Better keep doing the things

https://www.the-sun.com/news/9085904/russian-fighter-jet-tried-shoot-down-british-spy-plane/

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